do pros ever lose? and how to deal w/ huge losing streak?

red007 · Apr 8, 2007

I. This is a question for those who do this for a living or know someone who does this for a living. Do they ever lose in terms of a year to date result (calendar year). I assume the answer is yes, but since I don't know anyone who does this for a living, I thought I'd ask.

II. And how do you deal w/ a huge losing streak? I've been doing this for a while but in the last 50 days I've had the worst run I've ever had. Down a bit over 588 units in that span. 10 units is my average sized play. Do you just take a week off? Or longer? Right now I can't hit jack in any sport. I guess I'm in a bit of a panic now due to this crazy cold streak. I've never lost so much in such a short span. I haven't been chasing. Just betting my normal plays the same way I've been doing for years. Its only April so hopefully I can still have a decent result by the end of the year but these last 50 days have been frustrating to the say the least. FWIW, 50 days ago it seemed like a promising year as I was up 296 units ytd. Now 50 days later I'm at -292 units ytd. A complete freefall.

dayjobpoker · Apr 8, 2007

Put it this way the bookies stay in business for a reason, if your just playing on gut feelings and not really knowing ALOT about the sport the VIG will slowly clean you out regardless of having a 1 or 100 day good run.

Follow my plays it will get you out of that hole!
:drink:

bellyputter · Apr 8, 2007

The biggest fallacy I see in sports wagering, is the belief that the more wagers made with an "edge" will produce the greatest profits. This philosophy is the main ruin of most sports bettors. Because of "luck" and many unknown factors that occur during sporting events, the vig will destroy a huge volume of bets over time. I have been successful over the years, simply picking my "spots." I made 81 bets during the college basketball season. You must learn to take "days off" and specialize in only a few sports. No matter how sharp you think you are, bad beats and large bankroll swings will prevail in the long run. Good luck to everyone.

TomBrady#1 · Apr 8, 2007

Of course pros lose. Read a couple of books about it. Realistic expections are huge in doing this. IF you are going to hit 54% over the year then statistically you are going to have bad losing streaks at times. THis is an absolute mathematical fact.

Bob McCune's Education of a Sports Bettor is a good book and explains this.

Anti-liberal · Apr 8, 2007

red007 said:
I. This is a question for those who do this for a living or know someone who does this for a living. Do they ever lose in terms of a year to date result (calendar year). I assume the answer is yes, but since I don't know anyone who does this for a living, I thought I'd ask.

II. And how do you deal w/ a huge losing streak? I've been doing this for a while but in the last 50 days I've had the worst run I've ever had. Down a bit over 588 units in that span. 10 units is my average sized play. Do you just take a week off? Or longer? Right now I can't hit jack in any sport. I guess I'm in a bit of a panic now due to this crazy cold streak. I've never lost so much in such a short span. I haven't been chasing. Just betting my normal plays the same way I've been doing for years. Its only April so hopefully I can still have a decent result by the end of the year but these last 50 days have been frustrating to the say the least. FWIW, 50 days ago it seemed like a promising year as I was up 296 units ytd. Now 50 days later I'm at -292 units ytd. A complete freefall.

You've probably been making a ton of marginal plays, as well as not getting any breaks....over-losing-losing more than you are supposed to mathematically. You ARE supposed to lose if you're not getting mathematical edges in your bets, but maybe not 588 units.

Why don't you explain your gambling style...do you bet your opinion or do you pickoff numbers, or what? How many plays a day? And how much average $$$ volume per day?

Anti-liberal · Apr 8, 2007

Is there one particular sport that your style doesn't work for, and others that you seem to do well in every year?

KayJoy · Apr 8, 2007

bellyputter said:
The biggest fallacy I see in sports wagering, is the belief that the more wagers made with an "edge" will produce the greatest profits. This philosophy is the main ruin of most sports bettors. Because of "luck" and many unknown factors that occur during sporting events, the vig will destroy a huge volume of bets over time. I have been successful over the years, simply picking my "spots." I made 81 bets during the college basketball season. You must learn to take "days off" and specialize in only a few sports. No matter how sharp you think you are, bad beats and large bankroll swings will prevail in the long run. Good luck to everyone.

I think this is especially true during baseball, as their are more than 4500 games which makes it easy to pick too many sides... best to go with one or two picks you feel are strong. :103631605

Anti-liberal · Apr 8, 2007

junglekyle said:
I think this is especially true during baseball, as their are more than 4500 games which makes it easy to pick too many sides... best to go with one or two picks you feel are strong.

You either have the (mathematical) edge, or you don't. You won't win in the long run without the edge.

JudgeWapner · Apr 8, 2007

The pros have losing streaks, but there money management gets them through it with minimum damage.

WVU · Apr 8, 2007

pros lose more than anyone else.

SportSavant · Apr 8, 2007

sorry to hear it red..... best of luck for the future....

ive also been on a terrible run for a month and a 1/2 so I feel your pain.

TTinCO · Apr 8, 2007

Judge Wapner said:
The pros have losing streaks, but there money management gets them through it with minimum damage.

$$$ Mgmt is the absolute key.

Red, whenever I hit those streaks, I just take a break and regroup. Try to figure out what I'm doing wrong & change it. Start making some air bets & jump back in once things are looking better. Taking a couple weeks off can really help clear your head.

Journeyman · Apr 8, 2007

red007 said:
I. This is a question for those who do this for a living or know someone who does this for a living. Do they ever lose in terms of a year to date result (calendar year). I assume the answer is yes, but since I don't know anyone who does this for a living, I thought I'd ask.

II. And how do you deal w/ a huge losing streak? I've been doing this for a while but in the last 50 days I've had the worst run I've ever had. Down a bit over 588 units in that span. 10 units is my average sized play. Do you just take a week off? Or longer? Right now I can't hit jack in any sport. I guess I'm in a bit of a panic now due to this crazy cold streak. I've never lost so much in such a short span. I haven't been chasing. Just betting my normal plays the same way I've been doing for years. Its only April so hopefully I can still have a decent result by the end of the year but these last 50 days have been frustrating to the say the least. FWIW, 50 days ago it seemed like a promising year as I was up 296 units ytd. Now 50 days later I'm at -292 units ytd. A complete freefall.

I had a terrible 10 month period last year, after doing very well for about 2 straight years, It will really play mind games with you if you let it
...I mean everything I touched just seemed to lose, and what made it even worse was the way I was losing...

I always include my entire bankroll (available cash) so if I start losing a decent amt I just quit til I make it back with my jobs...therefore I never really fall below certain money thresholds....for me it's easy to quit til my money resources (amt willing to risk) return and when I win I save it for the most poart and move up my bottom line (the point I refuse to go below) So there will be times where i just can't bet for long periods until I catch fire, and even then I will stop if I lose a good bit back.

The_Man · Apr 8, 2007

well define pro?

is pro a tout?

someone who wagers on the outcome of certain sporting events as main income?

an everyday bettor?

what is a professional ?

mj23 · Apr 8, 2007

Judge Wapner said:
The pros have losing streaks, but there money management gets them through it with minimum damage.

GOOD KNOWLEDGE!!

Doug · Apr 8, 2007

junglekyle said:
I think this is especially true during baseball, as their are more than 4500 games which makes it easy to pick too many sides... best to go with one or two picks you feel are strong.

I get 2430 games

15 X 162 = 2[SIZE=-2] [/SIZE]430

Woody0 · Apr 8, 2007

Doug said:
I get 2430 games

15 X 162 = 2430

Sure, but there are over 4500 sides. :103631605

TheWolf · Apr 8, 2007

For what its worth....I had a great football season only to piss most of it away after Pinny closed up shop (just a coincidence) on college hoops. In about 3.5 weeks in mid-January/early February I blew my profits from football season. Actually went something like 1-14 over a 3-day span. I handicapped the games myself and thought I looked at every possible angle. Tha is when I knew something had to change. So, I talked with a lot of people on here about various other methods to betting college hoops and it helped a ton! I still tried capping games myself but kept losing. I figured there was something I was missing. I kept capping, but started fading my plays after the first weekend of March Madness and closed the year on a nice 16-4 run to end the NCAA hoops season. If I wouldve started fading my plays sooner, I couldve won the betjam/rx MArch Madness contest! LOL. Sounds like its time to reassess things. Best of luck to you.

Anti-liberal · Apr 8, 2007

Journeyman said:
I had a terrible 10 month period last year, after doing very well for about 2 straight years, It will really play mind games with you if you let it

That's the hard part of losing...maintaining one's confidence. "Self-doubt" is an enemy to be feared for a gambler.

squeeze3 · Apr 10, 2007

I've been a professional (income is solely from gambling) for the last eight years and have had one year in which I lost. After this losing year I did what most businesses do when times are tough.....evaluated why I lost and then made changes accordingly. In my case, I decided I was spreading myself too thin and eliminated certain unprofitable betting angles. For example, I was convinced that I could win NBA and college second halves, but looking at the numbers I concluded that it just wasn't happening, so I dropped them. I also dropped Nascar as I was losing big there and recognized that I needed to put way more time into it if I wanted to turn a profit there. So I consolidated and only played angles that were proven winners in the past.

Your losing streak suggests that you may not have an edge and you probably need to take a close look at what your are doing. Your downfall seems too severe to simply explain it away as bad luck or not catching the breaks. If you are not up historically using the system you are using now to produce winners, than you probably need to come up with another way to make a profit.