Boxslayer's MLB Easter Sunday (10-4, +11.86)

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UF. Champion U.
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10-4, +11.86

Happy Easter to all. Thanks for all the kind words in the other days picks thread.

1* Florida Marlins -125

Battle between two 23 year olds here: Zack Segovia of Philly, and Scott Olsen of Florida. The difference here is experience. Olsen has it, while Segovia makes his 1st MLB Start.

Although Olsen's stats show him getting roughed up by Philly, I'm willing to discard some of that as one of his starts in Philly he got shelled and left out to dry during his rookie season. He faced Philly twice in the same week last season, at the end of his rookie season, when rookies' fatigue starts to set in. When you bet on young guys, you want to do it early in the season, as they don't have the experience or stamina of pacing themselves over the course of 162 games. As the season progresses and you get post all-star, you start to fade rookies.

I think Olsen is all grown up here, and he'll get to face the Phillies in a month other than September. Olsen will run it up mid-90's, he's off a nice solid opening day start, and now comees back to pitch at home vs. a Phillies team that Florida has had a lot of success against over the years. Another key thing here is Olsen, a left hander, has been extremely tough on left-handed hitters in his short career. Lefties bat just .199 against the lefthanded Olsen. Meanwhile, the two key bats in the Philly lineup - Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, are both left-handers. Howard is particularly struggling right now, and is pressing to try to get on a pace to match last year's performance and he is impatient and uncomfortable at the dish right now. As Ryan Howard goes, the Phillies go, and if he's not hitting - fade city. Howard, even when he's hot, is terrible against lefty pitchers. So, I really see a big hole in this lineup today for Philly that they can't afford as they start a rookie pitcher.

Zack Segovia makes his MLB debut, and not a good place to do it. Marlins home field at Dolphin Stadium is a very strange stadium for baseball. Very football-like, and it's tough as a rookie to make your opening start on the road vs. a very hot hitting team right now - in the rubberband game to decide the series. Marlins have been pounding righties this season so far (see Myers), and getting shut down by lefties (see Moyer). Marlins have scored at least 8 runs in all of their wins so far this season, and I will stick with the hot bats here vs. a first time pitcher.

Marlins 7
Phillies 3
 

UF. Champion U.
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1* Milwaukee Brewers -111
0.5* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +1.80

Again, I have to go with the most consistent pitcher in MLB - Chris Capuano. This left-hander gets no-respect from the books, and this line should be in the -130 to -140's for this pitching matchup.

With the Brewers at home, they can turn to their most consistent starter to avoid the sweep here. Capuano is not only consistent in general, he is especially consistent vs. the Cubs. They have a very tough time figuring out Capuano, as he has won 5 straight vs. the Cubs, and is 7-2 in 10 starts vs. them.

He'll face Wade Miller, who hasn't been the same pitcher since his Houston days after arthroscopic surgery. He pitched well enough in spring to earnt eh #5 spot in the rotation, but this is the real deal now, and he's going up against a very good pitcher.

With hits coming easily for the Cubs the past few games, I'll look to bet Capuano to slow their bats down and avoid the sweep.

Milwaukee 5
Chicago 2
 

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Good luck today box, tough first inning for Florida, but theyll get back in it.
 

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Box, are you playing the Brewers tomorrow with Suppan. thx

Havent looked at it yet. A small part of my capping depends on what happens the day before. I like to see the results, see if any streaks are broken, how games end (emotionally, extra innings), who is used out of the bullpen, etc.

I'll post tomorrow.
 

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur
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my job is too easy just follow Boxslayer and collect :missingte
 

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur
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DAGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGER Craig Counsell with a 3 run triple 9-4 Brewers thanks for another 3-0
 

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Box--just noticed your start to the season!! Will look at your threads from now on. GL:drink:
 

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Box, you like anything for tonight? I have been studying the match-up and can't quite decide if there is enough value on Padilla tonight or not.
 

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Box, you like anything for tonight? I have been studying the match-up and can't quite decide if there is enough value on Padilla tonight or not.

sorry, i just missed you

Easter dinner with the GF's fam, but i wouldnt have had a play anyway

gl tonight
 

Buried Alive after week 2 of the NFL
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Check ur computer when u get a chance Box....Good shit today again
 

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