MLB: Sunday April 8th Plays

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may add a couple of plays if two teams prices continue to climb.

Happy Easter.

Pirates @ Reds
Play: Pirates +108
Intrinsic Value: -128
Consider Betting Price: -116
Comment:

No, I would never expect linesmakers to open this Pirates team a favorite on the road in this game, but I like them in this situation, and think they have a better chance of winning than losing. Don’t let Milton’s perennial low Whip fool you into thinking that one season he could lower that ERA down. He doesn’t need a high Whip to allow a lot of runs, as there are not many people more prone to the long ball than he is. This is the last thing you want when pitching in this park, especially during the day when it is much more live. It is no surprise that he put forth a home ERA well over 5 last season here, and allowed about a home run every five innings. The Pirates tagged him twice last season, and there might not be a team in baseball that has given him more problems in the past, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA well over seven against this club. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters in Sunday’s lineup that has his number, and even new addition LaRoche is primed for a decent game as Milton has actually be less effective against left handed batters. Milton is also not in pitching shape compared to his counterpart. His spring was cut short and is just now coming off the DL with back problems. Being backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.

Duke is a young southpaw with a lot of upside potential. He showed what he can do in this rookie season a couple of years back when his ERA was a mind boggling 1.82 in over 80 innings of work. Last year he went through a sophomore slump, but was actually very good after the break. He looked solid in his first start of the season. He is especially tough on left handed hitters, which is ideal when going up against the Reds, whose power is mostly generated from the left side. The Reds lineup is overrated and not ideal for manufacturing runs, which might be a problem, as Duke does not allow a lot of home runs. He is backed by a deeper and better bullpen and will be on a higher pitch count this time around.
 

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Blue Jays @ Devil Rays
Play: Devil Rays +142
Intrinsic Value: -115
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:

Here is another game in which I think the underdog has a better chance of winning than losing (which is the case for about half of the underdog bets I make). You just can’t give this many basis points to one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball over the last three years. I am not sure why the Blue Jays are laying such odds, as the only decisive advantage they posses in this spot is their bullpen. Don’t put too much stock into Kazmir’s first outing, as he has never been that effective against the Yankees and has always struggled on the road. At home, you can’t get much better, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA of under three in this park, and has allowed just nine home runs here in the last three seasons. The Blue Jays lineup is built to go up against southpaws, but not ones like Kazmir. He has had no problems with them in the past, and actually has pitched this team as well as any other team he has faced. This is a series in which home field advantage is magnified, as both offenses perform much better in their respective parks.

Holliday has been a money maker in the past, but still is one of the more overvalued pitchers in the league, and with the inflated price tag he continues to carry, its hard to imagine him generating a positive ROI going forward. The young Devil Rays lineup has seen a lot of Holliday over the years, and his style is not a novelty to them compared to most other pitchers. This lineup is much more dangerous than they are given credit for, and are seeing the ball well right now. They have consistently been more dangerous at home through the years. The Blue Jays have a decent bullpen, but a bullpen that is overworked and is not fooling this lineup much.
 

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Cubs @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -118
Intrinsic Value: -132
Consider Betting Price: -119
Comment:

The Cubs are getting progressively better with each game, but might have a hard time finishing off this road sweep. It was just a matter of time until books inflate the line on one of the public darlings. They have a difficult match up against one of the more underrated southpaws in the league, which has always been much better early in the season when his arm is fresh. He also has one of the higher disparities of home vs. away numbers, which makes it too favorable variables going on Sunday. Another variable not reflected in the line is one of the more impressive numbers of last year. Capuano pitched 26 innings against the Cubs last year and did not allow a run, and only 20 base runners. He is also backed by a relatively deep bullpen whose back end is well rested, not having to work with a lead yet. Right when the Cubs start hitting the ball well, they have the obstacle of facing a lefty, something that has happened in just two at bats all year.

It’s hard to know what to expect out of Miller after having pitched just over 100 innings in the last two years. But it might be safe to say that it’s hard to imagine him being as effective as he was prior to all the injuries he has had to deal with. Betting him without getting a lot of basis points in compensation this early in the season might be risky. His velocity is way down and movement is lacking, making him more dependent on the location. Facing a tough lineup from the left side might be draining for him. The Brewers are another team that hits much better at home, as their young lineup feeds off emotion.
 

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Cardinals @ Astros
Play: Astros -118
Intrinsic Value: -173
Consider Betting Price: -159
Comment:
It seems like no one wants to touch the Astros after starting off the season in the fashion that they have, but in reality, the Cardinals have not been much better. This line is way off, as there exists some hidden value. There is no denying that Wells put forth an impressive start against a talented Mets lineup last week, but I still remain skeptical, as he still hasn’t put forth a decent season in four years. His stuff has never been a problem, consistency has, and expecting him to continue to put starts like those might be wishful thinking. This might be a spot in which he gets a reality check. He has always been horrible on the road, and has struggled against the Astros in the past. If Wells pitches well, he will have to overcome past problems against hitters that are spread out top from bottom on this Astros lineup, including their two best hitters, Berkman and Lee. The Astros win on Saturday alleviated some pressure. The Cardinals bullpen is worse than most think, and not ideal in the front end. Wells should last long in this game, allowing the Cardinals to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.

Last week I was really bearish about Jennings, as he was simply coming with an inflated price tag against the Priates. One week later, it is quite the opposite. Although I am not expecting him to put up the same numbers as he did last year, Jennings seems to be getting better and better, and might not have peaked yet. He was solid in his first outing at home, which is key, as he had really struggled in past starts in this park, which should boost his confidence. His sinker is tough on right handed bats, and not having much talent on the left side should alleviate Jennings propensity to struggle against left handers. Coming from the Rockies, the Cardinals did not get to see him a lot over the years, but when Jennings did face them, he pitched really well against them. He is backed by a decent and well rested bullpen. The Cardinals are slow out of the gates, and just don’t seem ready.
 

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Rockies @ Padres
Play: Rockies +180
Intrinsic Value: +132
Consider Betting Price: +158
Comment:
It doesn’t matter who is pitching, the Rockies are a dangerous team to lay this many basis points against, as they have the much better lineup in this game. There is no denying that Peavy is a much better pitcher than Wells, and is primed for a breakout year after last year’s disappointment. However, in my opinion, he is actually a better match up for the Rockies lineup than Wells, as his power pitching compliments the Rockies hitters. Peavy was dominated by the Rockies last year, and has had a lot of trouble pitching to more than half the lineup, including two key off season additions. The most underrated 3-5 lineup in baseball has a good spot to showcase their talent, as they come into this game 12 for 27 against Peavy, while the Rockies role players in front and behind them have had success against him as well. Peavy for some reason has never had success pitching during day games, and last year was actually one of the worst day game pitchers in baseball, generating a five plus ERA in those situations. He has now produced a large enough sample and disparity to make me feel that holds substance. The ballpark will be much more live during the day, which will not curtail the effects of the Rockies more potent lineup like last night.

Cook is not one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he is consistently one of the most undervalued. He is consistently getting better, and might surprise a few people this year. He has one of the better sinkerballs in the league, which is a pitch that has the propensity to be more effective during the day for a couple of reasons. It has shown in his stats. Although he has been known to struggle against left handed hitters and is up against his fair share in today’s ballgame, Cook seems to know how to pitch to this Padres lineup, having dominated them for two straight years now. The Padres have one of the more inferior lineups in the league, especially when playing at home, making them a dangerous bet when accompanied with this type of price tag. The Rockies have a greater chance of losing this game than winning, but have a greater chance of winning this game than the market price reflects in my opinion.
 

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Red Sox @ Rangers
Play: Rangers +125
Intrinsic Value: -108
Consider Betting Price: +107
Comment:
Padilla always makes for a dangerous bet. When he has a bad start, it gets ugly fast. However, he makes for a compelling bet more times than not as a home underdog, as when he has his stuff working for him that particular game, he can be dominant. Padilla is always more dangerous when focused, and is always more focused coming off a bad start and pitching against good teams. He has both variables working in his favor in this game, along with pitching on national television. Last year, he handled the Red Sox bats well, putting forth two solid starts against them. He has the propensity to struggle against left handed hitters, which might not be a problem for him in this game, as the Red Sox don’t really have more than one threat from the left side. He has dominated the likes of Lowell and Ramirez. I said prior to season’s start that the Rangers have one of the most overrated lineup in baseball, but a lineup that is even more overrated is the Red Sox one. They have shown that to be the case so far year to date. They are especially overrated on the road, where they have consistently been much less effective each year.

Schilling is being priced by name, not ability in this one. Don’t expect him to have that great of a year, and is already off to a slow start by getting manhandled by the Royals on opening day. A left handed dominated lineup might be too much for Schilling, who is less effective against these types of hitters as he ages. There are a few role players that will be in the lineup that he has struggled against, including two new additions, Cattelano and Sosa. Much like the Red Sox, the Rangers bats started the season slow. Much like the Red Sox, the Rangers bats are much more potent at home and built for this park. It is no surprise that they came alive last night. Once Schilling leaves, the Red Sox do not have an ideal candidate to follow him prior to the 9th. A bit too much value on the Rangers to pass up.
 

Solomon Alabi - The Next Big Thing
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Love your Rays play, not being a homer. Kaz beat Halladay at home last year. Like you said, he is a different pitcher when in St. Pete. I see a 7 IP 12 K game for him today.
 

THE MAN must pay
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Love your Rays play, not being a homer. Kaz beat Halladay at home last year. Like you said, he is a different pitcher when in St. Pete. I see a 7 IP 12 K game for him today.

Only thing will the BP close the game??? I play safe with Kazimir and take him with +money in the 1st 5 innings!!! Panned out well as I won the 1st 5 innings and the Yanks made a late rally VERSUS THE BULLPEN and won the game....food for thought:drink: BOL!!!
 

Solomon Alabi - The Next Big Thing
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Thats the question every game. To be honest, I have only started looking at the numbers for baseball in terms of gambling. I rather bet with Kazmir @ +133 then laying -150 with Halladay. Thats just me, but I am not a baseball pro and just going off what I see is a better value.

I don't bet with or against my team. Feel I will always lose that way
 

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Mets @ Braves
Play: Braves +136
Intrinsic Value: +116
Consider Betting Price: +132
Comment:

As expected, with their home opener 24 hours away, the Mets elected to rest one influential player in their lineup with Lo Ducca. Hernandez is now getting a bit too much respect my books after his first start of the season being dominant. Today he has a tougher challenged, as he faces a more talented lineup than the Cardinals and a more dangerous lineup from the left side. He has struggled throughout his career against left handed hitters and is getting progressively less effective against them. Today he deals with five, which is really rare. Without Mota, Sanchez and Padilla, the Mets bullpen is not much better than their counterparts.

I am well aware of Davies problems, but that is fully reflected in the market price and them some. He still has a lot of upside potential, and has handled the Mets relatively well, and has had the upper hand against Delgado and Beltran. Lo Ducca’s loss will be even more missed, as he has hit Davies hard in the past. He is a right hander that has actually been a bit more effective pitcher to left handed hitters compared to right, which is key going up against the Mets lineup. He will be on a short leash and is backed by an underrated bullpen.
 

Chomping at the bits
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BG, thanks for the plays, I'll be tailing you all season I reckon. Something to do until football season starts. BOL and continued success.
 

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DOH!!! i missed the braves play... hope it cashes though.

buffet... is this what you do for a living??? hope you don't mind me asking.
 

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I am not sure why the Braves aren't favored. But they are down 2-1 early.

IS
 

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