MLB Sunday Pick (3-0-0 YTD +3.0 Units) With Writeup

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2007 RECORD: 3-0-0 +3.0 Units
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Well, despite the dreaded Igawa meltdown, the Yankees still found a mind-boggling way to win. Though we did get tremendously lucky yesterday, it’s reassuring to see that my first three selections have scored 8, 8, and 10 runs respectively. Once again, I find myself attracted to only one game today:
4/8/2007: St Louis Cardinals (Kip Wells) @ Houston Astros (Jason Jennings) 2:05PM ET

PLAY ON: <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">HOUSTON</st1:place></st1:City> ASTROS (MoneyLine, -120) To Win 1 Unit


Both the ‘Stros and the Cardinals have kicked off their seasons with a 1-4 record. While the Cardinals excuse may well be the standard “world series hangover,” the re-tooled ‘Stros don’t have that convenience. The ‘Stros added Jason Jennings, Woody Williams, Mark Loretta and Carlos Lee in place of the departing Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, and Willy Taveras, among others. Their major weakness last year seemed to be clutch hitting, and flat out offense. With another year under their belt, the young, developing hitters of <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City> like Luke Scott, Adam Everett and <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Jason Lane</st1:address></st1:Street> should provide enough pop to complement guys like Biggio, Lee and Berkman.
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Pitching for the ‘Stros today is Jason Jennings—A guy who has spent nearly his entire career in the pitchers hell-hole of <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Colorado</st1:place></st1:State>. Remarkably, <st1:City w:st="on">Jennings</st1:City> was able to put up a 3.78 ERA year in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Colorado</st1:place></st1:State> last season. He has a heavy, nasty sinker. On film, the ball literally looks twice as heavy on the hitters’ bats. His breaking ball is just as good. He can get it over the plate often, and routinely strikes out 6 or 7 batters a game. After a very strong outing against <st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City> in his first start, I have no trepidations about playing on <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Jennings</st1:place></st1:City> against the Cardinals. Today will definitely not resemble a Kei Igawa blowup. In his most recent start against <st1:City w:st="on">St Louis</st1:City>, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jennings</st1:City></st1:place> went for a complete game giving up a mere 4 hits.
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On the other side of the ball is Kip Wells, a guy who spent the majority of his career on a losing team in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:place></st1:City>. I had the pleasure of watching his entire start against the New York Mets not too long ago, and he was not particularly impressive. While does throw strikes, a lot of his pitches are flat and over the plate. He is definitely a pitcher you can pull easily, and with a short left-field porch in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City>, we will hopefully see some early bombs. His WHIP has been high throughout his career, giving up at least a hit every inning, and a walk every 2 innings. Wells can get strikeouts, but I don’t expect him to fare well in this hitters ballpark. His stuff will look petty in comparison to the big bats on this <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1:place> team.
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From a motivational standpoint, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">St Louis</st1:place></st1:City> has no respect for Jason Jennings. He was considered scrub pitcher up until last year, and has never gained the notoriety he deserved because of his extended stint in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Colorado</st1:place></st1:State>. Today provides a great opportunity to catch the Cardinals sleeping after their loss to Oswalt. I have a feeling this team is not going to awaken out of their post-championship stupor until they hit rock bottom. With a road series at <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1:place> coming up, they could lose 3 in a row and finally realize that they need to start winning. From an offensive standpoint the Cardinals have been completely incompetent. They are scoring 1.4 runs per game, and have got literally nothing going offensively. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Jennings</st1:place></st1:City> is not the guy you want to be facing when you get shut out by John Maine’s flat fastball.
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<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City> comes into this game off their first win of the season against the lowly Anthony Reyes. Kip Wells signifies a step up from Reyes, and the ‘Stros will be armed and ready for todays opponent.
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The <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City> bullpen has burned me in the past, but I don’t think they’ll be a factor in todays game. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jennings</st1:City></st1:place> is an inning-eater and I anticipate this game will be over before the 6<SUP>th</SUP> inning.
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Good Luck,
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Chase
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