schmeinz 07 baseball thread

schmeinz · Apr 10, 2007

i know i know believe me i know laying anything over -200 isnt the best idea but i really really dont think the nationals have a shot in hell.... i wouldnt lay anything over that number if the team could hit but the Nationals can't hit for shit actaully im not sure if they will win 50 games this year they are pathetic and the braves are playing some good ball right now and with their ace on the mound and the mets and phils battling in ny this is a great spot to get a sweep and a few games in the division i know its early but they know whats going on from day one, they will be looking to get a sweep here knowing their opponent sucks.

braves risk 490 to win 200..... bookmaker

first play of the year uh oh!

schmeinz · Apr 11, 2007

1-0 +200

For thursday I go back to the braves again.... but on the rl- 1.5 -160 as i got it in right away.

why?
Smoltz pitching, braves have been hitting good the nationals bullpen has been used alot so far this series the innings are about normal but their pitch count has been very high..

No pitcher for the nats bullpen has pitched over 1 inning but 4 have over 20 pitches thrown in an inning... you say no big deal thats what they do plus some got wednesday off.... well it is a big deal as you see the real reason which makes this game a very very good value:

Bergmann the starting pitcher for the nationals:
7 career starts mostly used out of the pen last year and moved into the roatation late in the season

Career numbers as a starter:
ERA 5.12
IP/RA:
5/3
6/4-----Last year vs. braves
6/4
7/3
3.2/5
4/3
3.2/4----- THIS YEAR WITH 6 WALKS

The braves have seen this guy many times out of the pen and once as a starter and had no problems with him... soooo

-familar with pitcher: check
-playing good ball as of late: check
-good starting pitcher for braves: check
-home game: check
-nats weak bullpen: check

Injury report:
Nick Johnson: nats best bat (out)
Guzman: starting SS (out)

I know the braves are capable of a letdown here but i think they should be able to muster atleast 4 or 5 runs and the nationals should be between 0-2.

Too much value in this play here at -160 to turn a profit you would need the team to win by 2 or more 6 out of 10 ten times in this position and i think they would so it makes it a good value IMHO.