Seriously, this is a stupid question; 49.5% chance you'll win.
Good point. Either way this guy is crazy if he thinks they make you lose the first hand for some reason. One of the bonus whore strategies is to bet almost all of it until you clear the bonus or go bust. I've done it, and i've gone bust a bunch of times, but longterm i'm still up. I've done 30 casinos+ and i never even had a slowpay.It's closer to 42%, IIRC. Splits and doubles make up the missing %, but you've got about a 42% chance of winning a single hand.
Online blackjack is not rigged (any worse than "real" blackjack is) for the most part, but that concept is pretty much lost on the crowd here.
That's your anecdotal experience. I've never noticed any trends of winning/losing. You probably didn't have 21, or it happened after the dealer already had 21. I've played at sites where, even if the dealer has 21 to begin with, they let you play out the hand even though you already lost, then if you get up to 21 you still lose because that's how the rules work. Your brain probably isn't smart enough to figure that out.I got 21 and still lost! It's rigged for sure. Then how do you explain winning at the beginning almost all the time, then losing 10 or 20 in a row.... that's just not possible at a real bj table.
I expect this from a regular nut, but from an ex-mod?I feel that you will WIN overall on your first session to suck you in....when the program learns when you double down after a loss you will lose your ASS in 5 seconds flat
but yes Like Crack they want you to get a taste of winning maybe even a small WD then BAM when you lose and rebuy and lose then they have you as planned
I know there are a few that say its not rigged and no offense to them but I DO NOT BELIEVE it for one second
Playing a single hand of Microgaming's "Vegas Strip" game (4 decks, stand soft 17, double on any, 2 splits max, double after split ok, one card only to split aces, dealer peeks for BJ, no surrender) using perfect composition-dependent basic strategy, one would have a 43.41% probability of a bet win, a 47.89% probability of a net loss and an 8.70% probability of a net push. Net win probability conditioned on not pushing is 47.54%.
The average amount won is 120.40% of initial bet, and average amount lost is 109.86% of initial bet.
House edge is 0.3554%.<sup>*</sup>
House edge figure is exact, all other figures based on 600,000,000 trial Monte Carlo simulation using perfect composition-dependent basic strategy.
<sup>*</sup> As of a few months ago Microgaming's Vegas Strip game is now 3 splits max. This lowers the hous edge to 0.3475%.