Diamond Talk with Austin

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Going to start this daily thread for the MLB season...I brerak down games in a different aspect than most..for those who like a good baseball discussion...this is the place...

STL/Pitt

I actually like Pitt here...keep in mind that Wainright is a converted SP right now and I cannot see him going longer than 6 here...should be a bullpen game and we just went to xtra innings last night...how much do you trust STL's pen to lay -133 in the 8th?

Houston/Chicago

NO PLAY...wouldn't touch either team..should go Over..this has bullpen game written all over it...waiting on O/U

Milwaukee/Florida

First off, you are not getting near enough money to take Milwaukee. -104 on the road? Brewers may have a little hope for their future in the NL Central, but you still have the troubles with the pen...have to lean Florida for even money at home, but after this continuation of last night...not real sure this is a game anyone wants to bet.

Philly/NYM

Eaton absolutly got shelled in his opener vs Atlanta, but some success vs the Mets, 20 IP/13 hits/ 3 ER. I am going to need close to +140 to bite on Eaton though, as much as I think going against Perez is a good idea, witht he Mets you have to understand this is an AL lineup in a NL division. To put it mildly, I don't have as much faith in the Phillies pen as Rollins' does. Game 3 of this series is Moyer/Glavine and Glavine as most know starts out very strong in April. If Mets lose a game to the Phills, I feel it happens vs Perez.

Washington/Atlanta

I don't lay that kind of wood and who woudl bet on the Nationals on the road? I would need at least +400 with them right now! ;)

Chicago/Oakland

Lean Over 9. Is Buehrle still tipping his pitches? Well his 3-8 lifetime record isn't comforting getting zero change on the road and after Jenks blowing it in the 9th, who has faith in this pen since the start of the season? And how about Joe Kennedy's lifetime stats...2-4/ 33IP/32Runs/27 earned/7.36 era/1.86whip/baa .312...yeah I have faith he is shutting down the Sox lineup.

Pretty much all I see for the card...

Leans

Pitt +125
Phillies +131
Chicago/Oakland Over 9
 

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whats ya thoughts on M's @ Bosox?

I would lean Boston to win this game, as Felix does not typically start the season out to hot. Boston is a machine at home and Seattle's pen is not the answer right now. Too chalky for my tastes. I think its Boston RL or no play.
 

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Great writeups man.. Hope you continue them all season..

Thanks brother. Yeah, I need to. I used to do this over at covers and I found the way I break each game down based on the odds really helps me narrow down the games that I feel I have a found edge...so even if no one pops in here to discuss, I will do this thread everyday for my own sake...

:toast:
 

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