MLB: Wednesday April 11th Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

Hoping to rebound from the worst day of the season so far yesterday (I believe it was the first day in which I lost more than a “unit”). You know it is not going to be your day when the teams you bet on allow a combined 12 unearned runs.

Cardinals @ Pirates
Play: Pirates +126
Intrinsic Value: -112
Consider Betting Price: +110
Comment:
Wainwright is one of the most promising young right handers in the league. His curveball is as good as it gets, and being complimented by his fastball with sinking movement makes him incredibly hard to hit, especially against right handed hitters. However, that was more than publicized during the Cardinals playoff run last year, and is now fully reflected in the current line. Wainwright’s pitch count will also be limited, and his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts per batter may force him to leave an early in this game. With Looper complimenting him in the starting rotation, the Cardinals bullpen lacks depth and talent. In the limited action against the Pirates last year, Wainwright struggled. Relying heavily on his 12 to 6 curveball, it is no surprise that he has been much less efficient during day games so far in his young career, as that pitch is much easier to pick up. Although the Pirates do not have one of the more potent lineups in the league, they have one of the more underrated lineups at home, as should not be taken lightly in this park. The return of Sanchez adds much need balance to the lineup as well.

Maholm is also a young promising pitcher. He also happens to be a southpaw, which does not bode well for the Cardinals, as their lineup was clueless all year against them. Maholm got stronger as the season progressed last year, and replicated the pitcher he was in 05 rather than the one who struggled in early 06. He has had much more success in his career at home, and has actually quietly put up a 3.26 career home ERA. Being a hitters park, having success here is a huge plus, and he has limited the home runs allowed in this park as well. He has put up solid numbers against the Cardinals in his only two starts against them. Pitching around Pujols can now be done effectively, as the Cardinals lack and ideal bat to protect him, while Rolen and Edmonds appear to be done. The Cardinals have been known to rest a veteran starter in the past during day games following a night one. Maholm is also backed by the slightly better bullpen.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

Astros @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -162
Intrinsic Value: -194
Consider Betting Price: -174
Comment:
Hills has the pitching arsenal to be one of the most dominating southpaws in baseball in years to come. His curveball is one of the most dominating in the league compared to any other left handed pitcher, and showed that to be the case after the break last year, when he put forth a 2.92 ERA and an OBA of .205. This is the exact pitcher that could overpower a struggling Astros lineup that lacks depth and allows pitchers to take breaks. His command has plagued his early career, but has been steadily improving, and not allowing a walk in his first start was a good sign. Astros hitters are plentiful from the right side, making them on the surface an ideal lineup against a southpaw. But this has not been the case for them in years past, and Hill has actually been a bit harder on right handed bats than left handed ones. Although his style of pitching leaves him vulnerable to being picked up easier during the day, he has actually performed better in those situational spots. He is backed by a deep bullpen that can make up for his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early.

The first two games that Cubs dangerous lineup did not get favorable match ups, and it showed in their lack of offensive production. This will not be the case on Wednesday, as they get a tailor made lefty to rough up. Although the jury is still out on Rodriguez, he has so far been a major bust in the big leagues. He looked good in his first start, but was fortunate to face a favorable lineup in the Cardinals, who just can’t hit left handed pitching. This will not be the case, as he is up against what might be the most dangerous lineup in the National League from the right side. He has struggled against right handed hitters throughout his career, and has not had success against a few Cubs hitters. He also falls behind counts, walks a lot of batters, and struggles out of the stretch. This is the last thing you want going up against the Cubs, as there just isn’t any breaks in this lineup, which should allow them to make this deficiency pay. He is also backed by a struggling bullpen, and will more than likely be without Wheeler, as he pitched Monday and over 30 pitches on Tuesday.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

Tigers @ Orioles
Play: Orioles +124
Intrinsic Value: +107
Consider Betting Price: +124
Comment:
This game consists of two young pitchers with a lot of upside potential, but only Verlander is getting credit for such based on the current market price. His mid 90’s fastball combined with his solid curveball has made it hard for both right handed hitters and left handed bats to make solid contact off of him. Although the Tigers have talented bats from the left side, they were not terribly productive against southpaws last year, and may have a hard time getting to Loewen with not having seen him in the past. They also provide Loewen with an ideal match up, as his biggest problem is his lack of command and propensity to allow a lot of walks, something that should be curtailed by the lack of patience the Tigers hitters possess at the plate. Loewen should be able to produce a big increase off his numbers of last year, especially when you factor in that 10 of his 19 starts last year were against either the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, or Blue Jays. He is also backed by the most improved bullpen in baseball this year, and a bullpen that is not that far from the Tigers talent and depth wise.

Verlander has the pitching arsenal to be dominant, but everyone is now well aware of that being the case and expecting to get value off of his talent may be wishful thinking throughout the season. Verlander’s style of pitching also compliments the Orioles style of hitting, as they are a solid fastball hitting team. They showed capable of getting to Verlander in their only game against them last year. He has also yet to prove capable of pitching to left handed bats in his career, as he has generated a 1.50 WHIP in these situations, and is prone to the long ball. This does not bode well for his chances, as he will more than likely have to face six left handed bats in this game. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen with great depth, it is a bullpen in which possesses a few pitchers that have been struggling on the mound.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

Royals @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -164
Intrinsic Value: -207
Consider Betting Price: -186
Comment:
This is the third straight day in which I feel the Blue Jays are coming with a lot of value. Although I got burned on them yesterday, I feel they have a much more favorable pitching match up this time around. Don’t put too much stock in Del La Rosa’s first dominating performance. He simply lacks the consistency, command, and stamina to produce such outings on a consistent basis. He also has the worst match up for his style of pitching, as he is a southpaw who tries to overpower hitters with his heat. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Blue Jays are loaded from the right side with power hitters who match up well against southpaw power pitchers. They are also a relatively patient lineup who makes their opponents pitcher come into the strike zone, which has been a problem for Del La Rosa in the past. Having to pitch behind a relatively small strike zone will only magnify the issue, and make him accumulate a high pitch count early in this game. This does not bode well for the Royals chances, as they possess an injured bullpen that is one of the worst in the league.

Chacin has had his fair share of issues the last year or so, but still has upside potential. Today is a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing, as he is up against a lineup that is not much of a threat against left handed pitching, and have struggled in these spots so far this year, hitting just over .200 as a team against southpaws. The Royals are also much less potent on the road. The Blue Jays bullpen has a big edge over their counterparts, and their best pitchers are well rested for this game. Chacin is prone to the long ball, but only Brown has shown power against left handed pitchers, which should allow him to curtail this deficiency. Home field advantage is magnified in this series, as both teams are far more productive in their home park.

finman13 · Apr 11, 2007

im on all these today again buffett. im not sure if ill ever see any value in seo even at +400 against the little league champions:+) man that guy sucks. anyway, glad to see you are the buccos and cubbies especially. really like those games. what is your synopsis on the red sox game and the chisox? have a great day

Jibba · Apr 11, 2007

BOL as always BG. Sorry to say that I'm against you with St. Louis and Detroit, but love Chicago today. I think St. Louis is playing some good ball right now and people still perceive them as being on a slow start. I don't think that's the case after they've won the games they should be winning over the last 5 or 6 days. The Mets debacle is behind them and I guess I just see this as a much larger pitching mismatch than you do. I think -128, which I believe is the number I got, is a good value, but obviously respect your opinion on the game.

I'm less confident in the Detroit game actually, because I have a lot of respect for the Baltimore offense, but I believe that Verlander really shows up today without the slight control problems he had in his first start. He's never had problems pitching on the road. Plus, I don't think Detroit's offense, while not great, is not getting enough credit yet IMO. Again though, I respect your opinion and do not like being on the opposite end of your play here.

Anyway, really love the Cubs game and will be following you on the Jays. Thanks and BOL.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

finman13 said:
im on all these today again buffett. im not sure if ill ever see any value in seo even at +400 against the little league champions:+) man that guy sucks. anyway, glad to see you are the buccos and cubbies especially. really like those games. what is your synopsis on the red sox game and the chisox? have a great day

I valued the Red Sox at -159, and that was a generous valuation, as I am big on Mats. But Hernandez is already one of the most dominant pitcher in the leaugue, and its hard to bet against him when laying a lot of basis points. Squares propped the line up from the open once again, as the Red Sox and Yankees appear to be public money's only safe haven. This will make them a really poor long term bet until public learns the hard way and backs off of them.

I valued the White Sox at -100, and if you take away the vig, and that is their market price. No value either way in this game. The jury is still out on whether Buerhle rebounds from last year.

By the way, it looks like the Cubs game is a no go.

biff_chipmon · Apr 11, 2007

BG,

GL tonight...did you happen to have the market prices and IVs for the other games, or are they all non-lined?

Thanks for all the work you do.

finman13 · Apr 11, 2007

ive still got the cubs at -170. im on it now becuase its climbing. under 8.5 even at fenway, might be worth a look in my opinion.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

Jibba said:
BOL as always BG. Sorry to say that I'm against you with St. Louis and Detroit, but love Chicago today. I think St. Louis is playing some good ball right now and people still perceive them as being on a slow start. I don't think that's the case after they've won the games they should be winning over the last 5 or 6 days. The Mets debacle is behind them and I guess I just see this as a much larger pitching mismatch than you do. I think -128, which I believe is the number I got, is a good value, but obviously respect your opinion on the game.

I'm less confident in the Detroit game actually, because I have a lot of respect for the Baltimore offense, but I believe that Verlander really shows up today without the slight control problems he had in his first start. He's never had problems pitching on the road. Plus, I don't think Detroit's offense, while not great, is not getting enough credit yet IMO. Again though, I respect your opinion and do not like being on the opposite end of your play here.

Anyway, really love the Cubs game and will be following you on the Jays. Thanks and BOL.

Jibba, the Cardinals might put up 10 runs in this game, but I just don't see how you could be impressed with them over the last two days. It took them 9 innings to put a run on the board last night, and were overmatched by Snell the day prior. It has been their starting pitching that has allowed them to win the first two games of the series, but last time I checked, Looper and Keilser will be in the dugout in this game. Wainwright is the real deal, but in my opinion, doesnt warrant these odds on the road..

I valued the Mets at -141, so the line seems to be effeciently priced. If you could get in at -128, I think they warrant a position. Their left handed bats should wear down Eaton, and the Phillies bullpen is a mess right now.

Good luck today.

AJPantano · Apr 11, 2007

Love the Buccos play and no I'm not saying this because I'm a fan. They win tonight.. in big fashion. The over looks tempting too does it not. It came down to 7.5 at -110. That's very low for the 4th pitchers in the rotation let alone two clubs just waiting to explode.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

biff_chipmon said:
BG,

GL tonight...did you happen to have the market prices and IVs for the other games, or are they all non-lined?

Thanks for all the work you do.

Marlins Intrinsic Value -112 Price Target +110
Brewers IV +112 PT: +132

Braves IV -177 PT: -161
Nats IV +177 PT +230 (will probably take a position)

NYM IV -141 PT -129
Phillies IV +141 PT: +161

Padres IV -132 PT -120
Giants IV +132 PT +152

White Sox IV +100 PT +120
A's IV +100 PT +118

Red Sox IV -159 PT -145
Mariners IV +159 PT +187

Yankees IV -125 PT: -113
Twins IV +125 PT +146

Rangers IV -139 PT -125
Devil Rays IV +139 PT +162

Notice that the favorites are overvalued today more than any other day. It is not a coincidence or mere randomness. They are hot right now, and the public loves that. Squares have made money the last few days, and will continue to unload on favorites, neglecting the price, until they learn the hard way that this is no way to approach baseball betting. Underdogs should possess some value until the recent short term trend reverses itself.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

AJPantano said:
Love the Buccos play and no I'm not saying this because I'm a fan. They win tonight.. in big fashion. The over looks tempting too does it not. It came down to 7.5 at -110. That's very low for the 4th pitchers in the rotation let alone two clubs just waiting to explode.

It would be hard for me to reccommend the Over in a game which both offenses appear to be dormant. Playing in a day game following an extra inning night game should slow down the bats as well. The Cardinals will be without Encarnacion, Rolen and possibly Edmonds. The Pirates may rest a veteran as being being a day game.

But the line does seem a bit low and the ballpark plays live during day games. Both pitchers will find it hard to get called strikes with Marsh BHP.

But I do not see enough evidence to suggest the Over is a steal.

MistaFlava · Apr 11, 2007

Well im going to wait on the lineup in the Cards-Bucs game but depending on who they have out there, I will most likely be on STL.

GL on the others man!

Jibba · Apr 11, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Jibba, the Cardinals might put up 10 runs in this game, but I just don't see how you could be impressed with them over the last two days. It took them 9 innings to put a run on the board last night, and were overmatched by Snell the day prior. It has been their starting pitching that has allowed them to win the first two games of the series, but last time I checked, Looper and Keilser will be in the dugout in this game. Wainwright is the real deal, but in my opinion, doesnt warrant these odds on the road..

I valued the Mets at -141, so the line seems to be effeciently priced. If you could get in at -128, I think they warrant a position. Their left handed bats should wear down Eaton, and the Phillies bullpen is a mess right now.

Good luck today.

Thanks for the feedback. It's not that I'm overly impressed with St. Louis, but I do think there's still some value there with the public perception of them coming out very slow. We all know they're not as bad as they've looked at times over the first week. I had no problem taking the Pirates to beat the Cards two days ago (I think), but just really like Wainwright and think he deserves more credit than this line gives him. Also, I am with you in thinking Snell is very undervalued, so seeing him shut down the Cards wasn't a huge surprise IMO. I'm still learning though, and maybe they don't deserve those odds. In my amateur opinion, it looked a bit low though.

Good luck man. Oh, and where did you see that about the Cubs game? I really liked that one for today.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 11, 2007

-3.58 Yesterday

+10.69 YTD

pool · Apr 11, 2007

The Cards have had a very good bench the last several years. This is due to the fact that Tony plays them so much during the season. I look for Spiezio to play third and either Wilson or Taquchi in center. Edmonds missed most all of spring training and hasn't come around yet. They won't lose anything on offense by these bench players starting. Yes the Cards aren't hitting left handers but the Pirates aren't hitting right handers. They're hitting .212 against them in the last 10 games and so far .114 at home. I love reading your write-ups but I really like getting Wainwright at this price. G/L on all your other plays.

Jibba · Apr 11, 2007

Any thoughts on the Indians or Dodgers today BG? I notice they're not in your list. Glad to see you have the D-Rays as close to your target line. I've been big on Texas the past two days, but think with an undervalued starter in Shields going against a bad home starter in Tejada (who the public may perceive as being better than he is after his first start), I think +150 is a good price.

BTW, I don't like going against Moose with NY looking pretty good the past two days, but that line has hit +146 on MB, which I noticed is your target.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

Jibba said:
Any thoughts on the Indians or Dodgers today BG? I notice they're not in your list. Glad to see you have the D-Rays as close to your target line. I've been big on Texas the past two days, but think with an undervalued starter in Shields going against a bad home starter in Tejada (who the public may perceive as being better than he is after his first start), I think +150 is a good price.

BTW, I don't like going against Moose with NY looking pretty good the past two days, but that line has hit +146 on MB, which I noticed is your target.

As far as the Indians game is concerned, there is just too many intangibles that are hard to quantify. This game is a fundamental cappers nightmare. I won't attempt capping it.

I need to see Hirsh pitch a couple more times before I value his worth. I did not cap that game either.

There is no doubt the Devil Rays are coming with some value today. But not enough for them to warrant a play. Shields is not as effective on the road, is backed by a nightmare bullpen, and the Rangers bats are finally starting to hit. Tejada lacks command, a deficiency that should be helped out by the Devil Rays youth and lack of patience.

Still waiting a bit more on the Twins. Squares will be unloading all day on the Yankees. Should hit +150 soon.

Good luck.

Jibba · Apr 11, 2007

Thanks. Best of luck.

MLB: Wednesday April 11th Plays

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