Boxslayer's MLB Wednesday (17-5, +19.96)

Boxslayer · Apr 11, 2007

17-5, +19.96

1* Chicago Cubs -1.5 +135

This is one I really looked at long and hard last night, and waking up today and looking it back over - I have to pull the trigger here. I wasn't going to play this because it was just a bit too public, and a bit too chalky. But considering the line is -170 or so, the public numbers are about right on it.

Chicago looks to avoid the sweep here at home, and they'll put one of the best young pitchers in baseball on the bump to try and do it. This Cubs lineup is loaded. I am just waiting patiently for them to explode, because this team has a lineup like the Mets. They have not put up great run totals lately, but they are hitting the ball. 7 hits pretty consistently a game. I'm going to say with the amount of guys that swing it from the right side of the dish, they will get to Wandy Rodriguez here today, and get a good performance from Hill to avoid the sweep.

Wandy Rodriguez is Domincan born and raised, pitched in spring training, opened up in Texas, now goes to some colder weather in Chicago. I don't see him adapting well, and even if he did, I still say this Cubs lineup is too potent for him. I look for a nice breakout game here from the Cubbies.

Rich Hill is a big 6'5"lefthander, from Univ of Michigan. Big breaking ball should have these Astros rolling over groundballs, as Hill's curveball has good depth and bite. He had a brief relief stint vs. Houston, and shut them down for 2 innings last year. This Houston lineup can go cold at a moments notice, and I think that happens today.

Cubs 9
Astros 2

BadassMoFo · Apr 11, 2007

Game is scratched for now on bodog

spreadbeater · Apr 11, 2007

Keep killing it Box.

gabbana · Apr 11, 2007

this could be a GOY for me but i'm concerned about the weather ..snow..? what do you think box ?

Boxslayer · Apr 11, 2007

definitely not GOY.

as much as this situation looks good, and this particular spot looks good......always take a step back and remember the basics.

you are potentially placing a GOY on:

1. a very juicy public play
2. a young pitcher
3. a team that isn't playing very well right now overall and on the verge of being swept at home

that doesn't look like a GOY to me. for me...it's a nice situation for the cubs. i think they bounce back. 1* play for me.

gl whatever you decide

Boxslayer · Apr 11, 2007

Cubs game postponed. Play is off the board. Back with more later.

Jibba · Apr 11, 2007

Was on this game as well, although on the ML. BOL on continued success this season.

Boxslayer · Apr 11, 2007

got an e-mail asking for my thoughts on the Pittsburgh game.

here is my response, thought i might as well post it:

Wainright can be flat-out dominant, especially vs. right handed hitters, which Pittsburgh is loaded with. Wainwright was a reliever, somewhat new to starting. He is nasty vs. right handed hitters. Cards may not need many runs in this game if he is on though. For the record, I am a huge Maholm fan. Cards should be a larger favorite - but not much, and not worth playing and laying juice on with a former reliever starting and key pieces of their lineup out.

However, if you want to fade the Cards, now is the time with some of their big bats out.

Maholm is still feeling his way through the big leagues....pitches better at home, I looked to play the under small, but it is too juicy and no value in it. Maholm gets shelled by righties, Wainwright gets shelled by lefties. Not many Left handed bats on Pitt. Overall, a very shaky bet on either side, with little value and a coinflip over the long haul at these odds. Classic game to lay off. If you must pick a side, pick the home dog.

buffettgambler · Apr 11, 2007

Boxslayer said:
got an e-mail asking for my thoughts on the Pittsburgh game.

here is my response, thought i might as well post it:

Wainright can be flat-out dominant, especially vs. right handed hitters, which Pittsburgh is loaded with. Wainwright was a reliever, somewhat new to starting. He is nasty vs. right handed hitters. Cards may not need many runs in this game if he is on though. For the record, I am a huge Maholm fan. Cards should be a larger favorite - but not much, and not worth playing and laying juice on with a former reliever starting and key pieces of their lineup out.

However, if you want to fade the Cards, now is the time with some of their big bats out.

Maholm is still feeling his way through the big leagues....pitches better at home, I looked to play the under small, but it is too juicy and no value in it. Maholm gets shelled by righties, Wainwright gets shelled by lefties. Not many Left handed bats on Pitt. Overall, a very shaky bet on either side, with little value and a coinflip over the long haul at these odds. Classic game to lay off. If you must pick a side, pick the home dog.

Nice analysis and approach.

ClipJoint · Apr 11, 2007

Boxslayer said:
17-5, +19.96

:monsters-

Boxslayer · Apr 11, 2007

1* Whitesox/A's over 9 -115

I was hoping I could get this line at 8 or 8.5 for a solid play. But at 9 -115, I have to cut this back to a 1*.

Mark Buehrle and this Whitesox team plays terrible baseball in Oakland. It's just the way things go - one of those strange trends that you can't explain. And in Buerhle's last 8 starts in Oakland, the Sox are 0-8.

Now, I don't usually like betting on Oakland, or betting overs on Oakland, especially early in the season, but I just can't resist here. The batting averages of Oaklands hitters vs. Mark Buerhle are just unrealistic. Some hitters just pick it up out of the hand well vs. certain pitchers, and Oakland sees it very well from Mark Buerhle's delivery. Buerhle, already having to face a team that he does poorly against, in a stadium that he does poorly in, has to pitch 1st time since taking a line drive off his pitching forearm. Most other pitchers, I wouldnt say it's as big of a deal. But Buerhle is a lefty that relies on control. And if he isnt at the top of his game and locating, he will get hit hard - even by Oakland.

Joe Kennedy on the other hand has some batting averages that are sick against him as well with Chicago. And with Chicago in the position to actually win a series in the rubber game today in Oakland, I think they come out and battle in this game and put up some runs and try to get the Oakland monkey off their backs.

Both of these teams are good baseball teams that battle, and answer when runs are scored. And I think with 2 pitchers that arent dominant out on the bump today, you will see each team battle back and answer with their turn at the plate.

In the end, I think Huston Street will close the door, and I lean to Oakland here....but not before 10+ runs are plated in this game between two playoff caliber teams.

Oakland 6
Chicago 5

CarolinaKid · Apr 11, 2007

Box bol with the over in this game,got Oakland here so i hope we can nail this one both ways....gl......ck

balls2thawall · Apr 11, 2007

nice RUN BOXMAN

IM ON THE OVER AND THE SOX

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK BRO

:toast: :toast:

Boxslayer · Apr 11, 2007

carolinakid said:
Box bol with the over in this game,got Oakland here so i hope we can nail this one both ways....gl......ck

I like your bet. Good luck today CK

Boxslayer · Apr 11, 2007

balls2thawall said:
nice RUN BOXMAN

IM ON THE OVER AND THE SOX

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK BRO

:toast: :toast:

Thank you!

The frustrating part, is all of my "leans"....meaning plays that I almost pulled the trigger on, and there have been 4 of them so far this year, all were winners. Today for example, in the writeup above I stated I wanted to play the under small, but laid off because it was juicy. The other day I was going to play Red Sox -1.5 and they won like 14-3. Pyro Capper can vouch for all of this. Etc etc.

I might need to start pulling the trigger on some of these, so be on the lookout for added plays, if interested, throughout the day:toast: .

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 11, 2007

Eat More Chicken. Make more plays.

thecakeoff · Apr 11, 2007

dont go tout on us Boxslayer :youmad:

i appreciate you taking your time to post picks with outstanding analysis

PITBULL · Apr 11, 2007

thecakeoff said:
dont go tout on us Boxslayer :youmad:

i appreciate you taking your time to post picks with outstanding analysis

Posts: 7,961????

you think he is going tout??? :lolBIG:

Boxslayer · Apr 11, 2007

3* Texas Rangers -1.5 +125

Probably the strongest play of the night.

Robinson Tejeda is a up-and-coming young pitcher. He is a guy that I have circled, and his last outing - in which he dominated - was no fluke. Tejeda is tough on righties, and the D-Rays have plenty of them. Tejeda can run it up mid 90's, he's mentally tough, and gets better when runners on base. He knows how to pitch out of jams and have damage control. As long as he is throwing strikes, he is very tough to hit. His offspeed stuff is just okay, and you want to bet this guy on night games when the hitters have a harder time seeing the rotation out of the hand. Good hitters can recognize slow rotation out of the hand, but it is tougher at night. Also, the Devil Rays are loaded with young guys, and alot of these guys dont have enough career at-bats under their belt to pick it up either. Anyway, I like Tejeda here at home vs. a young up and coming Devil Ray team that will be overmatched tonight. Lefties can get to Tejeda, but he wont face many tonight as this young Devil Ray team is loaded with right handed bats.

Tejeda struggled at home last year in his rookie campaign, but the reality is - all starts for a rookie are road starts until he gets acclimated to his stadium. He only pitched half the season, and with this stadium being familiar to him this year, I expect those numbers to change.

On the other side, you have James Shields. Shields is a nice young pitcher - but nothing special, he will never come close to being an ace in this league. He's a mid to back end of the rotation guy at best, and he is really struggling to adjust top the major league game so far in his young career. He struggles even more on the road, where his ERA cribs almost 2 runs greater when he's taken out of his comfort zone. With the Rangers looking for the sweep tonight, we should have an antsy crowd on our hands for Texas, putting pressure on the young pitcher and close off the sweep. When Shields hits the road, opponents bat .307 against him, even right handers have hit him hard - which bat .309. Rangers are loaded with left-handed bats, and the right handed Shields has shown a tendency to give up the long ball to lefties. The ball can fly out of Arlington at times, and with the power in the Rangers lineup a long ball could break this game open, and out of reach for this scrappy Devil Rays team.

Texas 7
Devil Rays 3