MistaFlava's MLB Wednesday ***Power Selections*** (Explanations inside)

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I have won three straight posted wagers and am now 5-3 on the season with posted plays. Looking to keep the winning ways going and I will be posting picks in this thread throughout the day. Here we go:




ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ML -133


Okay so the Cardinals have won the first two games of this series and oddsmakers are finally catching up to them. I know most people are going to be on the Cardinals and I agree enough to bet on them as well. No matter what anyone says about the Cardinals and their hitting against lefties last season, this is still a good lineup that can definitely produce. Eckstein is batting .282 lifetime versus lefties, Taguchi is batting .278 lifetime versus lefties, Pujols is batting .328 lifetime versus lefties and Aaron Miles is batting .274. You also have to consider that some of the guys are better hitters in day games. Pat Maholm's worst month has always been in April where he is 1-4 in six career starts and where he has an ERA of 6.06, allowing 22 ER's in those early season starts. Adam Wainwright on the other hand is the kind of guy that comes out of the gates strong and has allowed only 2 ER's in his career of playing during the month of April. That's 2 ER's in 18.2 career April innings of work with an ERA of 0.96. No matter what the temperature, Wainwright is ready to go in April which says a lot about a guy like this. I don't know why but Albert Pujols always seems to hit a lot of Home Runs in daytime games, jacking 99 big ones in 337 career day games and 152 HR's in almost twice as many night time games. Like I already mentioned, yes the Cardinals have struggled against lefties in the past but Maholm is a horrible pitcher to back in the month of April and his 6-1 loss to Cincinnati last week was a perfect example of that. When I make my own lines in the morning, I had this game at the Cardinals -145 or better which means there is a lot of value in this play. LETS DO THIS CARDS! What you also have to know about this Pittsburgh lineup is that when they struggle, they struggle and struggle for a while at that.



:toast:
 

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nice pick and thank goodness LaRussa is a genius who took out hot hitting Taguchi and put in Chris Duncan.
 

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Okay well I know it's a lot of chalk tonight but I know my boys and they are not losing this game. Here is tonight's pick after my fourth straight posted winning wager:



TORONTO BLUE JAYS ML -171

The RL of -1.5 is also very recommended here but since I am betting big time money on this game, I don't feel like worrying about them winning by more than one run. What you have to know about the Jays is that almost every game they win they win by at least 2 or more runs. Let's take a look at tonight's lineup. I had 10k on the Jays last night but had no idea I would be betting on a bush league lineup. John Gibbons made a huge mistake when he really mixed up the batting order and messed up team chemistry but he is back with the usual lineup that won them three straight games. You also have to know that the Jays are one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to playing against left-handed pitchers. Jorge De La Rosa was good in his first start of the year but he is about to get rocked tonight. Reed Johnson is batting .308 career versus lefties, Lyle Overbay is batting .286 career versus lefties, Vernon Wells is batting .321 career versus lefties, Frank Thomas is batting .327 career versus lefties, Troy Glaus is batting .280 career versus lefties, Alex Rios is batting .271 career versus lefties, Aaron Hill is batting .298 career versus lefties, Greg Zaun is batting .270 career versus lefties and Royce Clayton is batting .267 career versus lefties. That's some serious fire power against left handed pitchers. Gustavo Chacin pitched well in his debut in Tampa Bay but I think he'll do a lot better against this KC lineup. Mark Teahen is batting .229 career versus lefties, Emile Brown is batting .247 career versus lefties, Alex Gordon is batting .000 career versus lefties, Ryan Shealy is batting .174 career versus lefties and Jason Larue is batting .238 career versus lefties. The Jays cannot expect to compete in the AL East if they cant win series at home against teams like this and you are going to see them dominate. I say take the -1.5 but I don't have the balls to do it while betting a large amount of money.



:toast:
 

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Mista,
I know you went over this some in another thread, but do you not attribute any of the victory last night to Greinke. Frankly, don't think a couple of lineup adjustments would have made the difference. Although, that is debatable. And, did you not consider Greinke when placing the wager last night? I just wouldn't be in that much of a hurry to bet 10k against what could be the Royals best pitcher- especially with Towers on the mound. Best of luck with the play tonight. I also played the Blue Jays. GL.
 

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Congrats to Kansas City backers, you definitely have the better pitcher on the mound tonight. De La Rosa is pitching out of his mind and Chacin is lobbing softballs over the mound. I dont understand how the Royals lineup could even be close in this game, they are missing several key players. KC has the pitching upper hand in this one.
 

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I got it ML and RL, the BlueJays that is. Lets cash bro.
 

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Congrats to Kansas City backers, you definitely have the better pitcher on the mound tonight. De La Rosa is pitching out of his mind and Chacin is lobbing softballs over the mound. I dont understand how the Royals lineup could even be close in this game, they are missing several key players. KC has the pitching upper hand in this one.

Who are the key missing players? Sweeney and Grud, I assume. They both have the night off due to Grud coming off an injury and Sweeney often injured. Don't want to risk them on turf. That being said, Sweeney is batting .200 with 1 rbi so far. His replacement Reggie Sanders is a capable bat. And there really is no drop off at all offensively with German at 2nd. He's actually one of the better hitters on the team. GL. Also, the Blue Jays are winning.
 

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Mista,
I know you went over this some in another thread, but do you not attribute any of the victory last night to Greinke. Frankly, don't think a couple of lineup adjustments would have made the difference. Although, that is debatable. And, did you not consider Greinke when placing the wager last night? I just wouldn't be in that much of a hurry to bet 10k against what could be the Royals best pitcher- especially with Towers on the mound. Best of luck with the play tonight. I also played the Blue Jays. GL.



I was a dumb move...knowing Greinke seems to be over his demons and knowing the Jays are a much better team against lefties. I don't know why I placed the wager the night before but it ended up being a dumb move. I can definitely agree that Greinke was part of the reason for the Royals big win.
 

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Congrats to Kansas City backers, you definitely have the better pitcher on the mound tonight. De La Rosa is pitching out of his mind and Chacin is lobbing softballs over the mound. I dont understand how the Royals lineup could even be close in this game, they are missing several key players. KC has the pitching upper hand in this one.



What you missed about Chacin is that he was 6-1 at home last year but had an ERA above 6.00 and had the most run-support of any starting pitcher at home.
 

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:money8:



As recommended the -1.5 was golden because the Jays are going to beat every lefty they face at home by several runs.
 

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Flava: Jays -130 (Bookmaker) vs. Maroth (L) tomorrow - Tigers look like they are headed to 12 innings. Ice cold bats for the Tigs. Should I be worried that Ohka could wake up the Tiger bats?

Want to play the Jays for a couple of units. What do you think?
 

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Flava: Jays -130 (Bookmaker) vs. Maroth (L) tomorrow - Tigers look like they are headed to 12 innings. Ice cold bats for the Tigs. Should I be worried that Ohka could wake up the Tiger bats?

Want to play the Jays for a couple of units. What do you think?



Well like I said before, I don't know that the Jays are going to lose against a left-handed pitcher at home because all their top hitters are excellent against lefties. However, with John Gibbons as manager, you have to always wait for lineups to be released because you never know what kind of bullshit that guy is going to come up with. If the lineup is virtually the same tomorrow as it was tonight, the Jays have great value. Maroth gives up a lot of HR's indoors and that could be a big problem. However...I haven't seen enough of Ohka to know what he can do in a game like this...
 

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