Jake's Picks - MLB Wednesday April 11th

Record: 24-35
Profit: -12.08

My line for the 3:35 EST game:

Oakland -115, U7.5 -115

Bets:

Oakland/CHW Under 9.5 -125
Pitchers: Buehrle/Kennedy
.5 Unit

Neither team can hit at all and CHW has never been able to hit lefties. Kennedy was very impressive in his debut and both teams sport solid pens. Buehrle is somewhat of an unknown and wasn't looking well in his first start, but he had two nice ones against the A's last year and Oakland hasn't hit anyone the entire season. Gotta think the under comes in at this big number. This one feels really sketchy since the number is much higher than it should be, so I'll only do a halfer.

More Lines:

Boston -145, U7.5 -130
Detroit -115, 9 Pk
Florida -160, 9 Pk

Bets:

Seattle Mariners +152
Seattle/Boston Under 8 -105
Pitchers: Dice-K/Felix

As much love as I have for Dice-K, the value simply isn't there on this one. He'll dominate Seattle's lineup, but Felix has electric stuff and Boston hasn't hit that well. These bullpens are somewhat of a tossup and I'll take Felix, who is likely to go deeper into the game and hold off the iffy bullpen. I don't see either team scoring runs at all here.

Baltimore Orioles +115
Pitchers: Loewen/Verlander

Baltimore has hit much better this season and Detroit's offense just hasn't got it going. Loewen looked very good against the Yankees in his first start and even though the Tigers should hit lefties very well this season, they are batting just .185 against em this season. Verlander did well against the Royals but showed his control is not where it needs to be, which should lead to some runs for the home team. Go O's!

Florida Marlins -120
Pitchers: Mitre/Bush

Mitre pitched very well in his first start even though errors by his D lead to it looking much worse. Bush got rocked in his first start and was rocked by this Marlins team last year, in Florida. The Marlins are crushing the ball right now and may have been the most impressive so far this year. The Brew Crew are hitting well also but I'll take the home team, with the better starter, with the better offense, on a nice streak for only -120.

More lines:

Cleveland -130, 9.5 Pk
Toronto -225, O10 -115
NYM -200, U9.5 -110
Atlanta -180, U9 -115

Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +115
Pitchers: Chacin/De La Rosa

De La Rosa did well in his first start but he's not that good of a pitcher and he did it against the Tigers who can't hit much of anything early on. The Blue Jays crush almost everyone at home and have shown they can decimate lefties. The Royals will get some HRs off Chacin with the wind blowing out but I'd expect De La Rosa to be knocked out of the game by the 3rd and the Blue Jays to have a nice 3 or 4 run cushion. After that, it's KC bullpen time and that makes me happy.

New York Mets -1.5 +140
Pitchers: Perez/Eaton

The Mets are hitting very well and Eaton had absolutely nothing in his first game. I would expect him to get crushed once again, even with the wind blowing in. Perez looked dynamite in his first start and it wasn't an easy one against a good-hitting Braves team. Philly is getting HRs to stay in games but they really aren't connecting all that well and I'd expect a pretty good one from Oliver.

Washington Nationals +220
Pitchers: Williams/James

Although Chuck James looked very good against the Phils, he had 3 starts against the Nats last year and got rocked in two and was very average in the other one, which was the very first time the Nats ever saw him. Jerome Williams is a better pitcher than he showed last time out and the Braves aren't exactly hitting well. Atlanta's pen still isn't where it needs to be, and this is a very juicy dog.

More Lines:

Texas -120, 9.5 Pk
Yankees -175, O10 -125
SD -145, U8 -120
LAD -140, U7 -115

Bets:

Tampa Bay Devil Rays +145
Tampa/Texas Under 10.5 +105
Pitchers: Shields/Tejeda

Although Tejeda started out well, Boston was not on offensively and was swinging at everything. Tampa has been hitting the cover off the ball and I'd give the starter edge to Tampa here. Not sure how well the bullpen holds up, but I'd expect Tejeda to give up a few and for Shields to give up one or two. I like the vig on both of these bets.

Colorado Rockies +135
Colorado/LAD Under 7.5 -105
Pitchers: Hirsch/Penny

Both pitchers should dominate. The Rockies can't hit on the road and the Dodgers can't hit anywhere right now. This is the first time the Dodgers see Hirsch, who looked very good in his first game of the year, and that should give the Rocks a decent chance to take this one. I don't see either team scoring more than 4 runs.

+.42. I'll take it. Hell, it's a start. I need to start concentrating on dogs mainly because that is how I used to make so much cash at this. Every favorite I like suddenly forgets how to hit or pitch. I could pick Johan at -1400 against at home against the Boston College woman's team and he'd be knocked out in the 1st inning.