UNCLE STEVE's MLB WED. NITE recap (5-1) 19-8 YTD

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Well, the ROLL continues, going 5-1 straight-up tonight. (see afternoon post of picks for WED nites games, all validated for this forum)

Only loss? 12 innings, DET gets to a bullpen ass for BALT, after the score is 0-0 after 11 innings. Bullpen butthead gives up 4 runs. DET 4-1 final. I had BALT +1.5 runs. Go figure that garbage, BULLPENS LET YOU DOWN.

Still, went 5 -1, which is the main thing. Here's the lowdown:

Went 4-1 last nite (see Tues thread for validation).

W-L is 13-8 going into tonight (straight)

WED NITE picks * = how I play them (SB.COM)

**** MILW (BUSH) -102 WINNER (wrong-way-reverse theory works again)

**** BALT (LOEWEN) +1.5 runs -140 LOST (see above BAD LUCK review on this game, damn)

*** T.BAY (SHIELDS) +1.5 runs -145 WINNER (Rays WIN the game outright)

** ATL (JAMES) -280 WINNER ( easy set-up for Braves, James win this one, easy)

** TOR/KC over 10 WINNER (both pitchers give up lots of runs, simple)

** BAL/DET under 9 WINNER (Loewen got shafted after pitching his butt off, but bullpen gave up the dinger in the 12th, still a WINNER for the under 9)

Going into tonight, 13-8 (straight up). IF you were playing units, you would be killing the man. Dead. Tonight, you would have won 14 units, lost only 4.

But, I keep score straight up. So, record is now:

W-18, L-9 YTD. straight up, W vs. L. Last two nights, 9 W's and only 2 L's.

Follow the bouncing $ signs. It shows you the winner. SHOULD have been SIX wins tonight, but I'll take it. 12 innings, anything can happen.

US (trying hard in Texas)
:money8:
 

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US, are you using a system similar to what you used in College Basketball.
 

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US, are you using a system similar to what you used in College Basketball.

Well, similar, but not using SOS or POWER ratings at all. I use those for spread-game competitions.

In a nutshell, I have found (in baseball), since the game is so profoundly dominated by pitching, the line(s) movement (early, opening, then by following the after-movement of the line, this is clearly the way to go, since this game is based on moneyline vs. spread for point games. The spread games are based on POWER and SOS, thus giving a balance/centering number to 'even' out the wagering.

In baseball, this is not the case. I have developed what I call "line-support" and list the movement of money, then adjust (calculate) the + or - from the favorite = ALWAYS from the favorite side.

This allows me to calculate a 'developed line' of movement + or -, and this, in turn, determines 'line-support', with all focus on the fav team, or in the case of the game of baseball, the 'better pitcher', etc.

In almost every situation, by following the ml movement according to the favorite (pitcher), you can determine the AMOUNT of support, then weigh that support vs. the EARLY LINE (very important), then the OPENING line, and even further (and just as important), then continued motion of ML movement. A multi-step process, that has a value determination.

Of course, you have to have an idea of what you are looking for, but in certain situations, you can have a favorite that has weak-ML support, thus dictating a play on the dog utilizing the +1.5 run option. This is a great tool.

By tracking ALL of the above mentioned LINE processes, you can then apply the + or - to the EARLY line, follow, track, then you get a numeric (and clearly visual) on where the 'support' is, and how MUCH the support is, by the change, or amount of change in the line vs. opening line, then vs. early line.

It DOES matter. It is the sole determining factor in all my plays. Very much like boxing. You can clearly see the $$$ support (or lack of) by tracking, and I mean hour by hour from EARLY, OPENING and then within an hour of gametime. Sudden changes, slow progressive up or down changes (all being weighed against the EARLY & OPEN lines), show you the power of the money, and in most cases, the team to play. Sometimes, it is best to find the 'steady' play, one that the money doesn't change much at all, but stays steady. That is a good sign.

Here is an example from Tuesday nite, one of my picks:

SFG (Morris)
SDP (Hensley) -145 (early) -129 (open) -125 -125 -125 (hourly tracking)

So, I put this # config that I can 'see' on the fav:

-16 (change from early line to opening line)
-20 (change from early line to first track after opening line)
-20 (same)
-20 (same, gametime)

NO support from early, opening and then steady decline from then on for Hensley.

So, I took SFG +115 AND +1.5 runs.

They won, 6-5.

There is MORE to this, it isn't this simple, but another great item is the "wrong-way-reverse" favorite, which is now 4-0 this season. It won again tonight with the White Sox, going from fav -110 to dog +102. They won 6-3.

If you do this correctly, you will end up with something like this (from tonights game TEX vs. T.BAY: -8 -8 -15 -15 -15 -20. TB won +145.

So, in answer to your question: NO, it is NOT like what I use for NFL, NCAAF, NCAABB, or NBA. That is spread games that DO take into consideration SOS, POWER, etc. Baseball is different, thus the ML aspect of the game. The BEST thing is watching the RUN line. It can really be effective for parlay and coverage situations.

There is so much more, I really don't want to get into it on this forum. But, I will continue to post my plays.

Hope I answered your question = I never give up, ever, until I can apply theory to economic behavior. Not all games have perfect information for statistical 'centering', especially with ML type games like baseball, they are weighted, not balanced like spread games.


US (relentless in Texas)

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US,

Do you like the Braves tomorrow with Smoltz pitching at -295?

If Chuck James warrants a bet with -280, I suspect Smoltz is a great deal at only -295
 

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US,

Do you like the Braves tomorrow with Smoltz pitching at -295?

If Chuck James warrants a bet with -280, I suspect Smoltz is a great deal at only -295

Take = Can't answer that until tomorrow, have to see all the numbers.

I can't ever make an early prediction, ever, with the process I use.

It takes getting up early, getting the numbers, then watching, then trying to determine the best plays for the day.

So, gotta wait and see on Smoltz. One thing I have come to realize = the smart money DOES dictate with path you should take. Sometimes, it takes some 'gut' with the info, but I only follow what 'they (the smart guys) give up. With baseball, it is a given BECAUSE, it is based on a MONEYLINE, that means MONEY, and money moves the mojo. Once you can figure out the REAL from the PUBLIC, then things get groovy. But, it takes watching, keeping track, then watching some more. I do think it can be done, however, that's why I'm working it. There are some smart guys out there = the trick is to tail them. Money moves everything, so follow the bouncing $ signs. And, keep records. Then, you can compare and say (HEY, I've seen THIS before!)

BOL to you,

US in TexLand
 

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steve

Glad to see you daily posting and keep adding profits.

Always appreciate your writeups.

:drink:
 

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