Jibba's Thurs MLB

Favorites: 6-0 for +6 units
Underdogs: 1-1 for +0.5 units
Total: 6-0 for +6.5 units.

Feel very lucky to walk out of yesterday's early-evening games 3-0. Could have easily been 0-3, but a win is a win. 1-1 in the late games as Maddux showed he's got some life left in him but the Dodgers came through. Going to wait on most of the lines to see if any of them move in a direction I like. One for now.

Cleveland -127: I'm pretty high on Jeremy Sowers. I think he's got the stuff to be a solid #2 in the majors. I'm not really convinced that Moseley is much more than a bottom of the rotation guy. I understand this is not a home game, but it's being treated as one by both the teams and the fans (which were split between Indians fans and curious Wisconsinites). The first game in Milwaukee drew almost 20,000. They booed the Angels and treated the Tribe like the home team. So I don't think we can look at this as simply a game at a neutral site.

Anyway, getting back to Sowers, he was 5-3 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 starts at home last year. While Moseley may have looked good against a weak Oakland offense at home last week, he has a long way to go to prove himself. And going up against this Cleveland offense on the road isn't the place to accomplish that IMO. I think this line should be closer to -140 personally. 1.27 units to win 1.

Nice run.

Thanks. We all have good runs at times. Here's hoping I can keep it going a bit. Forgot to update the total. Should be 7-1 for +6.5 units. Going to add one now rather than wait, because I can't see the line getting all that much better.

Baltimore -119: I think the line reflects the public's view of Gil Meche. Do they see the starter who smoked Boston on opening day or the one that lost to Detroit 5 days later? My guess is that they still give him more credit than he's due, especially on the road. This isn't to take away from the fact that he's a solid pitcher. He is. But he's also a guy who has historically not pitched well on the road. Last year he was 4-4 in 18 games started with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP (7-4, 3.76, and 1.24 at home). Over his career he's 24-25 on the road in 76 games started with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP (32-20, 3.93, and 1.29 at home). He is flat out a different pitcher on the road than he is at home.

This isn't exactly what I would call a pitching mismatch. Steve Trachsel is no stud starter. But he's a somewhat reliable veteran who looked decent in his first start this year. To be fair though, last year he was better on the road than he was at home, and this will be his first home start of the year with his new team. But the real difference comes from these two offenses. I don't think anyone needs to be told what guys like Tejada, Roberts, Mora, Huff, Gibbons, Patterson and Markakis can do. As compared to KC, they're simply not playing up to their potential rather than simply being a bad offense. There's a small chance the public could push this one down further, but I'll grab it now as I see a decent amount of value here. 1.19 units to win 1.

I also have leans today on NYM -140 (likely not to play), Atlanta -280, Boston -162, and Minnesota -153.

Going to add the Mets game now, although I don't expect it to be played. Loving the home favorites today.

NY Mets -139: I think it's a good spot for the Mets to bounce back. Neither Glavine nor Moyer really impresses me these days, but I'll take Glavine at home with a team that has looked good this year over Moyer and the Phils anyday. Solid home pitcher versus a weak road starter. I see this line as somewhere between -150 and -160 and will admit that reading Buffettgambler's thread pushed me over the line on a play that I was very close to originally. 1.39 units to win 1.

Also, the more I read the more I like my first two plays. I'm going to increase them to plays to win 1.5 units. I don't like to jump too quickly into 2 unit plays but either of these could end up as 2 unit plays for me in the end. So the Cleveland game I took it at -128 (at this point the better line is actually on VIP) for .64 units to win .5 for a total of 1.91 units to win 1.5. In the Baltimore play, which has actually gone to -114 on MB, I added .57 units to win 5, for a total of 1.76 to win 1.5.

Updated Plays/Total Card So Far:

Total Baltimore play: 1.76 units to win 1.5.
Total Cleveland play: 1.91 units to win 1.5.
NY Mets: 1.39 units to win 1.

I am also playing one of my leans, the Twins, but I don't want to post too many plays on my record that have been influenced. I'm just going to ride BG's coattails on this one and the Toronto game so I won't count them toward my record.

Great start to the season. Like Mets and Minny too. I am a Tiger's fan, but not feeling good about them this early part of the season. Likely pass for me, but I believe Toronto wins. Continued success to you.

Thanks man. Just curious, do you live in AZ or are you still AZ bound? Heading out there (3rd time) at the end of the month. BOL on your plays as well.

Jibba said:

Thanks man. Just curious, do you live in AZ or are you still AZ bound? Heading out there (3rd time) at the end of the month. BOL on your plays as well.

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no, not yet. Still need a couple more winning seasons before I can quit real life for a while and make the move. Probably a couple years away. Do have family there and get to visit a couple times a year during the cold days of the midwest. Love the golf there. What about you?

My grandfather lives there 6 months of the year, so he's always trying to get family members to come visit. Only been there twice. Too long of a trip to go often. Only going out for like 6 days this time, but I can't wait to get away from the crappy weather in Boston. Not a huge golfer yet though. I enjoy it, but just never find the time. And going out there with the wife doesn't lend itself to golfing. Been to the Canyon twice already, but I'm considering going just to see that new glass thing they've got there. Sounds crazy.