Boxslayer's MLB Thursday (17-8, +13.46)

Boxslayer · Apr 12, 2007

17-8, +13.46

2* Cleveland Indians -135
1* Cleveland Indians -1.5 +155

Indians playing in Milwaukee as they try to avoid the snow. Milwaukee fans have actually come out and cheered the Indians, and I think the Indians will want to thank them for their hospitality today.

Jeremy Sowers is finally a pitcher that I would consider the next Tom Glavine. Throws a 90 MPH fastball, outstanding control over his off speed stuff, good movement, good curveball. Smart pitcher. This guy dominated at Vanderbilt at the college level, and it is no surprise that he was able to break into the big leagues at 21 and 22 years old and have success right away. The learning curve for him is small, as he relies on location and movement no matter what level he goes to. His 1 hit gem last week was no fluke, and I think he continues his solid pitching performance vs. an Angels lineup that can go cold at a moments notice.

Cleveland and LA typically play a high scoring affair, and after the 4-1 game yesterday, a young unproven Dustin Moseley getting the start for the Angels filling in in the rotation, I think the Indians have one of those breakout games where they plate a ton of runs. Moseley pitched outstanding last week, above his head, and looked better than advertised vs. an Oakland team that struggles early every season.

Rubber game, and the Indians have a big advantage getting LA over from the west coast with Sowers on the mound. Back to earth for Moseley.

Cleveland 8
LA Angels 3

Jibba · Apr 12, 2007

Love seeing you on this one. On it as well. BOL. :toast:

AJPantano · Apr 12, 2007

I like the play a lot.. I did the exact same wager except I have the same amount on both bets. BOL to us both!

thecakeoff · Apr 12, 2007

i made a thread an hour ago for feedback weather Tribes are a good bet or not well it just got answered thanks Boxslayer :toast:

COYOTEBLUE · Apr 12, 2007

HAFNER JUST HOMERED IN THE BOTTOM OF THE EIGHTH TO MAKE IT 4-2 CLEVELAND WITH NOBODY OUT ...

:missingte

thecakeoff · Apr 12, 2007

COYOTEBLUE said:
HAFNER JUST HOMERED IN THE BOTTOM OF THE EIGHTH TO MAKE IT 4-2 CLEVELAND WITH NOBODY OUT ...

:missingte

:missingte :aktion033

thecakeoff · Apr 12, 2007

thank you for the winner

DavezFever · Apr 12, 2007

Nice pick box, wish i caught this one earlier.

ssbowtie1 · Apr 12, 2007

Hey boxy keep up the good work...def gonna start taking your picks seriously.

biff_chipmon · Apr 12, 2007

You looking at anything for tonight?

Keep up the great work!

Boxslayer · Apr 12, 2007

19-8, +17.01

1* Minnesota Twins -1.5 +120

It's really not my style to keep playing all of these favorites, but it's just the way it has been shaping up this early in the year, and it obviously has been paying off thus far.

Again, I have to go with the favorite here - Minnesota. One simple reason: Casey Fossum is one of the worst road pitchers in the big leagues.

He gets shelled on the road, his ERA is terrible, and he faces a Twins team of a losing series with the Yanks. Still, he is making just his 2nd MLB start since his shoulder surgery, and it's just not easy to hop right back in the big leagues and pick up where you left off. What a great rebound series for the Twins. They get the D-Rays off a big offensive output last night, then board the plane in Texas and end up in frigid Minnesota. D-Rays may find some comfort in the dome, but overall, I'd say they shot their load last night in the first few innings getting belt high fastballs from Robinson Tejeda, then they were shut down the rest of the game.

Silva pitched great last game in Chicago in the cold weather, was a tough luck loser, and he'll find things a bit more to his liking in the dome tonight, where he sports an ERA a full run lower than on the road. He has pitched well against Tampa in his 2 appearances, and that should continue tonight. I'd also lean to the over tonight, but I'm not sure if Tampa can duplicate their output from last night. The over is a bit juicy as well. Keeping this play small because it is just a square, square play.

Minnesota 7
Tampa Bay 4

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 12, 2007

Gotta love the Twinkies to keep that momentum going from last night...No square plays in baseball, just high juice IMO...

prodigy · Apr 12, 2007

Boxslayer said:
Keeping this play small because it is just a square, square play.

you're too smart to allow yourself to think there are square plays in baseball.

twins will either win or lose, and payout accordingly. there is no pointspread equalizer. if the twins are the right play, a price of -120, -150, or -200 would make no difference (except in the long term of course). but in terms of tonight's game, you've got to find the winner. and it looks like you're confident with silva so fu.ck the rest of the bettors, even the average joes. they have no say in the outcome. nor can their betting patterns force you to lay 2 or 2.5 runs.

gl

Boxslayer · Apr 12, 2007

prodigy said:
you're too smart to allow yourself to think there are square plays in baseball.

twins will either win or lose, and payout accordingly. there is no pointspread equalizer. if the twins are the right play, a price of -120, -150, or -200 would make no difference (except in the long term of course). but in terms of tonight's game, you've got to find the winner. and it looks like you're confident with silva so fu.ck the rest of the bettors, even the average joes. they have no say in the outcome. nor can their betting patterns force you to lay 2 or 2.5 runs.

gl

i know what you are saying, i understand and respect your logic and perspective, but i disagree. :103631605

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 12, 2007

FYI Box, your largest play thus far in the MLB season i think on the A's, there were like 85% of the public on it...fwiw

thecakeoff · Apr 12, 2007

PyRo CaPPer said:
FYI Box, your largest play thus far in the MLB season i think on the A's, there were like 85% of the public on it...fwiw

wasnt the Tigers almost 75% too?

gynecologist · Apr 12, 2007

Missed this one.. Fuck

Boxslayer · Apr 12, 2007

2* Kansas City Royals +111

I like the Royals in this spot for a few reasons. I'll start with the weakest....

Without getting into a big discussion over this, think about the big picture sometimes. A team like Kansas City is going to win 60-70 games this year. When do those wins happen. A guy like Gil Meche is going to pitch .500 ball. These are the types of teams he beats. He wont continue to beat the Bostons of the world, he will have to scoop up wins vs. some of the Baltimore's when it is his turn in the rotation.

Pretty weak, right?

Ok, now to the good stuff. Some of you were on board for my Royals Team Total over a few days ago, and this is a very similiar situation. IMO, if the Royals lose this game, they are going to have to get outscored. Because they should score runs in this game. Baltimore is ice cold at the plate, and I don't think they will be able to do much vs. Meche.

Kansas City's DeJesus is absolutely on fire right now, and he is single handedly keeping this team in games. But once Kansas City gets production out of Alex Gordon and Ryan Shealy, they will be dangerous. Gordon is college baseball homerun champion when he played for Nebraska, and Shealy is a 2-time minor league homerun champion, both guys have mega power - but slider bat speed.

When they face a guy like Trachsel, it plays right into their hands. When we played the Royals team total, these Royals faced a softtossing pitcher, and I stated the same thing about Gordon and Shealy - and Gordon hit a 2-run bomb.

Trachsel relies on location, location, and if he doesnt have it he will get hit. And Trachsel is on the downside of his career, while Meche's career, battled and marked with injuries, is in his prime.

This is a game the Royals win. Look for Gordon and Shealy, two autoamtic outs right now that are killing the Royals in the middle of the lineup, to have better games at the plate.

Royals 6
Baltimore 3

Boxslayer · Apr 12, 2007

PyRo CaPPer said:
FYI Box, your largest play thus far in the MLB season i think on the A's, there were like 85% of the public on it...fwiw

That's it, Pyro. Let's blow up the whole theory because of one or two games. :lol:

I guess the public has never won a game in their collective lives?
:smoking:

prodigy · Apr 12, 2007

Boxslayer said:
i know what you are saying, i understand and respect your logic and perspective, but i disagree.

this is puzzling coming from somebody with experience playing the game itself. thats why i enjoy going back and forth with you in your posts. we've both played certain sports competitively at very high levels. and our approach to capping and factoring in the truly relevant variables reflect that. im baffled that you, as a former player, would allow yourself to even remotely worry about something considered 'public' ... in BASEBALL of all sports. theyre either going to hit silva ... or theyre not. there are no backdoor covers. no key numbers. there is no spread to get even action. the only thing they can do is tax your bet. you of all people know how 'loose' baseball is. its a 'go out there and play' sport. if youre good enough that day, you'll win.