Friday's Bookie Buster Service Plays, SDS Spreadsheets

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Both the service play spreadsheet and the new service play “FADE” spreadsheet have links immediately following this first post.
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There has been a lot of great discussion generated about these spreadsheets and their intended use. I am hoping to reach some sort of conclusion this weekend in regard to how this process will move forward. It appears that there are two logical choices: either a dramatic revision of how and which plays are tracked and recorded, or keeping things pretty much the way it is with a few tweaks and adjustments.
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“Fade” Spreadsheet Notes

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We may have finally found a potential money tree. If any of us would have been fading Cappers Access on their last seven tracked days, we would have went 2~0 on four of those seven days! And we would have went 1~1 on the other three days. Fading Cappers Access on those last seven tracked days would have resulted in a 11~3 record (79%). Nice.
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Recommendation: Put Cappers Access on your Fade Now List.
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Russ Culver probably has enough tracked plays under his belt to avoid dipping way below 40% for the season, but he has been crashing and burning as of late. If you would have faded him on his last four tracked days you would have went 14~5 (74%).
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Recommendation: Put Russ Culver on your Watch List.
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Stu Feiner needs to be watched closely. He has went 0~8 in his last eight tracked plays after starting the season off with a 6~2 record. His season record has now dipped to 40%.
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Recommendation: Put Stu Feiner on your Watch List.
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Service Play Spreadsheet Notes

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Overall it was a rough night for a lot of the top ranked services. A few services previously hitting at 80%* (*with a very limited number of tracked plays) went 0~1 and 0~2 last night, bringing their winning percentages back down to earth.
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Meanwhile S. Sharpe keeps on plugging along posting another 1~0 night. He has a very limited number of plays, but his 5~1 record (83%) is impressive so far.
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Recommendation: Put S. Sharpe on your Watch List.
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B. Coleman appears to be the most solid of them all so far. He has went 7~0~1 over the last three tracked days and is 10~3 (77%) for the season so far.
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Recommendation: Put B. Coleman on your Play Now List.
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Best of the Rest: NSA and Power Plays are the next best bets. NSA has went 4~0 on their last three tracked days and is 8~3 (73%) for the season. Power Plays is undefeated so far with a 5~0 record. Looks good, but remember, three days of 0~1 will have them down from 100% to 63%. Not enough tracked plays to be certain, but looking strong.
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Recommendation: Put NSA and Power Plays on your Watch List.
 

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Service Play Spreadsheet

Updated Service Play Spreadsheet:
 
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Service Play FADE Spreadsheet:

Updated Service Play FADE Spreadsheet:
 
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BB's NBA Thread

FYI:

I have a heavy day of travel today for my job, so I will not be near a computer for the rest of the day until I arrive back home in the late afternoon / early evening (probably around 5:00 PM central time).

Therefore I will not be able to repost Bookie Buster’s service plays from his Hoops Forum thread until I get back home.

Please refer to BB’s NBA Forum thread for the service plays until then. He usually posts them around 3:00 central time or so. If you are unfamiliar, he typically titles his thread something like “Friday Service Plays 4/13/7” or something like that.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

SDS
 

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Bookie Buster's Friday Service Plays

Bookie Buster's Service Plays:

Trev Rogers


Oakland A's -103

Gator


70% Situations
MLB (Friday) Play Under MLB home teams when the total is 8 to 8.5 with a team averaging 0.75 or less HR's per game on the season and after 3 straight games where they committed no errors.
(32-10 last 5 seasons.) (76.2%) PLAY: Colorado / Arizona UNDER 8.5 (-110)

Hondo


Cincinnati Reds
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Big Al's NL Game of the Week.


At 8:10pm, our NL Game of the Week is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. While the Indians are borrowing the Brewers ballpark, Milwaukee has been on the road (in south Florida before traveling to St. Louis for this series) and doing pretty well in the process. They just took 2 of 3 from the Marlins, and while their bats have been solid, it's been their pitching that has been the real reason for their success so far. They have a team ERA of 3.54, are second in the NL in WHIP at 1.12, and second in strikeouts with 70. And their bullpen has been amazing, sporting a 1.69 overall ERA through the first 9 games of the season. The Cards are sending young Anthony Reyes to the mound tonight and Reyes is going to be much more of a go to guy this year for St. Louis, especially if Chris Carpenter is out for any prolonged period of time. But despite all the hype, Reyes' numbers really aren't all that impressive, and he hasn't really been able to go very long in his starts. Last season for example, Reyes only averaged 5 innings per start, which is exactly how far he went in his first start of 2007, a game which the Cards lost to Houston by a score of 5-1. No starter in the majors can be very dominating only averaging 5 innings per start, so eventually St. Louis will have to stretch him out which could be when things really fall apart. Ben Sheets goes for the Brewers, and this could be a year that he takes his talent to the next level, assuming he can stay healthy of course. The Cards have already been bitten by the injury bug as, in addition to Carpenter, they are without Scott Rolen (day to day but will not play tonight) and Juan Encarnacion (15 day DL). Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my American League Totals Winner, as we've cashed 4 straight here on the diamond, and 80% here on the year.

Glenn McGrew

(907) WAS Nationals vs (908) NY Mets
Game Starts at April 13 2007 16:10 EST
Take (908) NY Mets
Play - New York

(919) KC Royals vs (920) BAL Orioles
Game Starts at April 13 2007 16:05 EST
Take (920) BAL Orioles
Play - Baltimore

(901) CIN Reds vs (902) CHI Cubs
Game Starts at April 13 2007 11:20 EST
Take (901) CIN Reds
Play - Cincinnati
Cappersaccess
Fri) NBA Bulls Bobcats 9- Bulls
(Fri) MLB Brewers Cardinals 120 Brewers
(Fri) MLB W. Sox Indians 110 W. Sox

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Zeus Selections
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platinum - cardinals
gold – tigers

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The SuperBest Bet


twins
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Billy Batts


astros
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Heater Picks


twins
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Cooperstown Selections


diamondbacks
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Scott Spreitzer

Marlins at Braves
Prediction: Marlins
Dontrelle Willis is at it again. He's 2-0 this month, which extends his April run to 11-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his last 17 April starts. He'll face a Braves lineup that was held to two hits and shutout last night. We look for Atlanta's struggles to continue against the D-train. Meanwhile, the Braves counter with Mark Redman. The veteran lefty has no business in anyone's rotation. We went against him last Friday in my Beatdown GOW and cashed easily - the Braves lost 11-1 to the Mets. Redman was smacked for five earned runs and a 1.77 WHIP (10 base runners) in 5 2/3 innings pitched. We'll continue to go against the lefty as long as he remains another over-valued Atlanta hurler.
The Marlins hang another loss on Redman and the Braves

Jim Feist

(923) DET Tigers and (924) TOR Blue Jays
Take (924) TOR Blue Jays
The Tigers are an offensive team suited for spacious Detroit, with a balanced lineup. Toronto is built for the artificial turf of SkyDome, with speedy outfielders and plenty of power. Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman has already faced the Jays this season, and has a 4.50 ERA against them. Toronto goes with ace Roy Halladay who is pitching well again and has owned the Tigers in his career, with a 10-2 mark and a 1.93 ERA in 93.1 innings. That includes just 76 hits allowed, 8 walks and 66 Ks.
Play the Tigers!

Dave Cokin

(903) HOU Astros and (904) PHI Phillies
Take (903) HOU Astros
Make sure to take advantage of Dave's FREE Arena Football League weekend. Dave is 29-12 for the season on his AFL plays, so these are selections you want to be on. The first play goes tonight as San Joe faces Nashville, so make sure and make that call to 1-888-389-7223 for your FREE AFL WEEKEND!..."The money will be on the Astros tonight as they face off with the Phillies. Philly opened as the small favorite, but look for the 'Stros to go off as chalk, and with good reason. Roy Oswalt has superb numbers against this team, particularly at Citizens, where he's 2-0, 0.57. The Phillies are not playing well at all, and with Houston on a modest two game win streak, they're the right side here


RAYMOND


Baltimore Orioles RunLine -1.5 +125
B Duckworth -R Must Start
E Bedard -L Must Start

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Tony Onio<o:p></o:p>
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1000 Twins –1.5<o:p></o:p>
200 Padres<o:p></o:p>
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HONDO (10-2)


(10 Units) Reds
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Brandon Lang


15 DIME
Dodgers
Oakland A's

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5 DIME
Giants
White Sox
Twins -1 1/2 Runs

Dave Cokin<o:p></o:p>


903) HOU Astros and (904) PHI Phillies
Take (903) HOU Astros
Make sure to take advantage of Dave's FREE Arena Football League weekend. Dave is 29-12 for the season on his AFL plays, so these are selections you want to be on. The first play goes tonight as San Joe faces Nashville, so make sure and make that call to 1-888-389-7223 for your FREE AFL WEEKEND!..."The money will be on the Astros tonight as they face off with the Phillies. Philly opened as the small favorite, but look for the 'Stros to go off as chalk, and with good reason. Roy Oswalt has superb numbers against this team, particularly at Citizens, where he's 2-0, 0.57. The Phillies are not playing well at all, and with Houston on a modest two game win streak, they're the right side here


JIM FEIST


(923) DET Tigers and (924) TOR Blue Jays
Take (924) TOR Blue Jays
The Tigers are an offensive team suited for spacious Detroit, with a balanced lineup. Toronto is built for the artificial turf of SkyDome, with speedy outfielders and plenty of power. Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman has already faced the Jays this season, and has a 4.50 ERA against them. Toronto goes with ace Roy Halladay who is pitching well again and has owned the Tigers in his career, with a 10-2 mark and a 1.93 ERA in 93.1 innings. That includes just 76 hits allowed, 8 walks and 66 Ks.
Take the Tigers


SCOTT SPREITZER


Marlins at Braves
Prediction: Marlins
Dontrelle Willis is at it again. He's 2-0 this month, which extends his April run to 11-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his last 17 April starts. He'll face a Braves lineup that was held to two hits and shutout last night. We look for Atlanta's struggles to continue against the D-train. Meanwhile, the Braves counter with Mark Redman. The veteran lefty has no business in anyone's rotation. We went against him last Friday in my Beatdown GOW and cashed easily - the Braves lost 11-1 to the Mets. Redman was smacked for five earned runs and a 1.77 WHIP (10 base runners) in 5 2/3 innings pitched. We'll continue to go against the lefty as long as he remains another over-valued Atlanta hurler.
The Marlins hang another loss on Redman and the Braves

LT PROFITS


Houston Astros (105)
While we have a lot of respect for both of these starting pitchers, we do feel that Roy Oswalt has the edge tonight and is worth an investment at this price.
Oswalt has looked terrific in his first two starts, allowing exactly one run and five hits in each of those efforts. He is a bona fide Cy Young candidate, provided the Astros could scratch out enough runs for him to win 20 games. Oswalt is also a perfect four for four in terms of Quality Starts in his career vs. Philadelphia. Now Phillies ace Brett Myers was roughed up by Florida in his last outing, but he did toss a fine game in his first start vs. Atlanta, so we do expect a nice bounce-back effort today.
Still, this is simply a case of a very good pitcher in Myers running into a great pitcher in Oswalt. With the Houston offense showing signs of a pulse in the last two games vs. the Cubs, we look for the Astros to eke out just enough runs for the victory here.

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Under8.0
We are looking for a good old-fashioned pitching duel in this matchup between Cy Young candidate Roy Oswalt and Philadelphia ace Brett Myers.
Oswalt looks to already be in mid-season form, as he has a 1.08 ERA and a miniscule 0.72 WHIP over his first two starts, covering 16.2 innings. He has also allowed a grand total of two runs in 24.2 innings over his last three starts against the Phillies, and he is four for four in Quality Starts in his career against them.
Myers is a much better pitcher than he showed in his last start in Florida, and he did pitch well in his seasonal debut here at home vs. Atlanta, allowing three runs on just four hits in 7.2 frames. He is also four for five in his career in Quality Starts vs. Houston, including a fine start in his only outing against the Astros last season where he allowed three runs and five hits in seven innings.
The Under is now 9-2-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, and given this matchup, look for that pattern to continue here.

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PAUL LEINER


5* Marlins –105
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Benjamin Lee Eckstein


Blue Jays

WINNINGWAY SPORTS


Selection: Oakland Athletics -110
Reason: Put us down on the Oakland Athletics (-110) for our Free MLB Selection on Friday. Today the New York Yankees will be on the road as they battle the Oakland Athletics. We will side with the Oakland Athletics. To say the least, the Oakland Athletics have a huge advantage on the mound in tonight's game. The New York Yankees will send to the mound Kei Igawa. Kei Igawa struggled in his first start this season (giving up 7 runs in 5 innings), and we see him struggling again tonight. While the Oakland Athletics are scoring many runs, we see the New York Yankees struggling to score. That's because the Oakland Athletics will send to the mound Danny Haren. Danny Haren has pitched solid so far this season. In two starts, Danny Haren has pitched 13 innings (giving up only 1 earned run - 0.69 ERA). We expect another solid start by Danny Haren. The Oakland Athletics are a perfect 2-0 against the New York Yankees (when Danny Haren starts), and should be able to get another win tonight! Take the Oakland Athletics!


Professional-Plays

Plays Rated 1-5
YTD: 12-3 (Last 15 Games)
2 Units Chicago Cubs –147

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STU FEINER

1000 DIME NBA No Brainer...DENVER NUGGETS
500 DIME MLB No Brainer...NEW YORK YANKEES
200 DIME MLB No Brainer...TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

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Proffit Plays:

Triple Plays: 29-19 (Last 48 games)
NY Mets
Minnesota
Atlanta


Larry Ness' 15* Underdog GOW (NINE straight MLB wins / 10-0 TY with 15* GOW plays!)


My 15* play is on the StL cards at 8:10 ET. I've always really liked Ben Sheets but he's rarely stayed healthy and he suffers greatly by pitching for Milwaukee. The Brewers are a brutal road team, going 27-54 in 2006 and have opened 2007 at 0-3 away from Miller Park. Sheets opened 2007 with a dominating CG two-hitter over the Dodgers but then struggled against the Cubs, allowing nine hits and five runs (in six innings) in a 6-3 Saturday home loss. More bad news comes Sheets' way tonight, as he starts in St Louis against the Cards. The defending champs opened the season by getting swept at home by the Mets in a three-games series, getting outscored 20-2. However, they've bounced back to win five of six at Houston and Pittsburgh. Now, they are back home against the poor-traveling Brewers plus will be facing a pitcher they've DOMINATED! In 21 career stars, Sheets is 4-11 with a 4.04 ERA against the Cards (he's lost his last five decisions), with the Brewers going just 6-15 in the 21 games! Anthony Reyes starts for St Louis and he wouldn't be my first choice but so what? The Cards have DOMINATED Sheets, the Brewers CAN'T win on the road and St Louis went 39-16 at home vs right-handers (including the postseason) in 2006. Underdog GOW 15* StL Cardinals.

GOLD KEY GAMES:
Silver Key (Bonus Play):Seattle Mariners PICK (WASHBURN)


Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (winning streak reaches 9-0 in MLB after Thursday win!)


My Oddsmaker's Error Play is on the Oak A's at 10:05 ET. I guess having almost $200 million in payroll, CAN'T buy you a pitching staff, huh George? Wang opened the year on the DL and prospect Karstens has elbow problems. Mussina and Rasner both left their starts with injuries and tonight the Yankees throw lefty Igawa at Oakland, in his second ML start. His first didn't go so well, allowing eight hits (two HRs). three walks and seven runs in five innings to the Orioles at Yankee Stadium last Saturday (got bailed out when A-Rod hit a walk-off grand slam). Yankee starters have a 6.38 ERA so far, the second-worst mark in MLB. Meanwhile, Oakland's starters own MLB's best ERA, at 1.98. Danny Haren, a 14-game winner in each of the last two seasons (he's on the verge of becoming one of the AL's best hurlers!), has allowed just one ER in 13 innings this year (0.69 ERA) but has opened 0-2. He's due and why not get that first win of '07 against the Yanks? The A's were 11-5 at home last year vs lefties at night and Friday surely face a lefty they can handle, in Igawa. Also, Haren is 3-0 (2.75) in five career starts vs the Yanks (team is 4-1), as the A's have given him 32 runs of support in those five games. Only the Yankee "name" keeps this price so low. Oddsmaker's Error on the Oak A's.


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FPBE Free Picks<o:p></o:p>
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Matty O'Shea - STL +110 MLB
Ben Burns - MIN -230 MLB
Ethan Law - BAL -1.5 runs +120 MLB

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WUNDERDOG

Game: Houston at Philadelphia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Houston +103
Good pitching match-up in Philly tonight with Roy Oswalt vs. Bret Myers. They both are capable of dominating a lineup. Oswalt has dominated the Philly lineup and since the bulk of the power hits from the left side he has done a great job keeping them in check. Oswalt is 4-0 0.69 ERA vs. the Phils in the last three seasons. Myers has struggled to a 1-1 record against the Astro's, but in each of the last three seasons has pitched to a higher ERA against the Astro's than his season as a whole. Oswalt has thrown a very high percentage of quality starts on the road as he has been 26-8 the last two years in that category, while Myers is just 20-13 at home.
The value lies with the Astros in this one


CHRIS JORDAN


600 Twins –1.5
100 White Sox
100 Dodgers
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Billy Coleman


4* Houston w/ Oswalt -120
3* St Louis +110

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The Locksmith's Picks April 13

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Pittsburgh - 4 Unit Play
NY Yankees - 3 Unit Play
Toronto - 2.5 Unit Play
Mil - 2 Unit Play


PPP

3% Angels
2% Hou,
2% Pitt,
2% Balti

5 Innings
2% Fla, Dodgers

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Karl Garrett

40 DIMER: FLORIDA WITH WILLIS
20 DIMER: CLEVELAND WITH CARMONA

10 DIMER: HOUSTON WITH OSWALT

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Triple Crown<o:p></o:p>
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3* TOR Under 3*DODGERS
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JB sports<o:p></o:p>
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3*Toronto
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ATS Financial<o:p></o:p>
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3-Florida
3-Toronto
3-Milwaukee

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Guaranteed Pick: Big Al Mcmordie

Game: New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics Apr 13 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: under
Reason: At 10:05pm our selection is on the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics 'under' the total. So far it's been the Red Sox' Daisuke Matsuzaka that has been getting all the attention as far as Japanese imports in 2007 are concerned. And that's probably just fine with the New York Yankees and their latest star from the land of the rising sun, lefthanded starter Kei Igawa. Igawa's numbers compare very favorably with those of Matsuzaka, and there is at least one thing he has done that Dice-K has not accomplished over in Japan and that is to be a 20 game winner (the 17 games that Dice-K won last year was a career high for him). Igawa is probably thrilled that his Japanese counterpart can't go anywhere without a hoard of photographers following him while the Yankee southpaw just slips quietly under the radar. Pitching on the other side in this one is another young, but very accomplished pitcher in righthander Dan Haren. Haren has really come into his own the last 2 seasons and he is ready to have a truly breakout performance in 2007. Oakland's biggest concern right now however has to be the lack of noise coming from its bats. Amazingly, the A's have scored more than 4 runs in only 1 of their 10 games played so far. These two teams played some pretty stingy games last year as 5 of the last 8 contests between them went a total of only 7 runs or fewer. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big winners on Friday

Baseball Formula (baseballformula.com)

ANAHEIM ANGELS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
DETROIT TIGERS

RedZone comp (last 3 won):


rockies vs arizona
Play: arizona


Randall Handle

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L.A. Angels +1.?? Over BOSTON PINNACLE
No line on this game yet because the Red Sox were cancelled yesterday and Wakefield was scheduled to start. They’ll wait to confirm that the Red Sox won’t skip him before posting a number for this one. However, we’re playing the Angels whatever the price is because John Lackey will be going for us. Lackey has turned into one of the most reliable starters in the business and already this year he’s 2-0 with an ERA of 0.75. He’s given up just two runs in 12 innings and he throws strikes. The Angels bullpen is as solid as any. Boston is just 4-4 after playing K.C., Texas and Seattle. Red Sox bats have not been very inconsistent and they’re just not in a groove yet; the Angels are. Play: L.A. Angels +1.?? (Risking 2 units).

PITTSBURGH –1½ +1.44 over San Francisco PINNACLE
Russ Ortiz is a used up and worn out pitcher who has been struggling for the better part of the last three years just to get a single man out. How he landed a job as a starter is a bigger mystery than how Phil (the Hat) Stacey has not been voted off American Idol. Against the Dodgers in five innings, Ortiz walked three and gave up seven hits. That’s 10 base-runners in five innings and the three runs he surrendered is very flattering to his ERA. The Dodgers hit .350 off him and he’s picked up where he left off last year when the opposition hit .340 off him and had a ridiculous slugging percentage of .655 to go along with his 8.14 ERA. He has maybe a week or two left as a major league pitcher. The Giants not only have a dud going tonight but this team has been seeing BB’s all year too. Overall the Giants have scored 20 runs in nine ball games. Zach Duke throws strikes and he’s just going to get better. He’s only walked one batter in 13 innings thus far and he was effective in both starts, at Cinci and Houston, two pretty good hitter’s parks. We’re going to lay the runs here because the Pirates should be able to score a bunch and San Fran has showed us zilch. Play: Pittsburgh –1½ +1.44 (Risking 2 units).

Florida –1.01 over ATLANTA PINNACLE
Dontrelle Willis has simply been lights out in April over his career and that’s good enough for us. In fact, Willis is 11-1 with a 2.40 ERA in 17 career April starts and this year has been no different, as he’s off to a 2-0 start with an ERA of 3.00. Mark Redman was crushed in his Braves debut, giving up nine hits and five earned runs in five innings of work. Willis over Redman paying a penny seems very reasonable to us. Play: Florida –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

LOS ANGELES/San Diego over 8 +1.07 PINNACLE
David Wells had a strong start but that was in San Diego, a park that could make any pitcher look good. At 44-years of age we’re not convinced that one outing is a true sign of things to come. Chavez Ravine is pitcher friendly too but not like Petco Park and Wells is still overwight and out of shape. Derek Lowe is a one-pitch pitcher with a deadly slider but it wasn’t effective in his first start and we trust the Padres can score in the neighborhood of three runs or four runs here. That should be plenty to aid us in this wager, as we don’t see a low-scoring, seven run game or less taking place in this one. Play: over 8 +1.07 (Risking 2 units).

Houston +1.02 over PHILADELPHIA PINNACLE
The equation here is a simple one. When we can get Roy Oswalt at a price, we’re in. Oswalt has been as sharp as humanly possible in two starts throwing a combined 16.2 innings and allowing just two earned runs while walking just two batters. The opposition hit just .175 against Oswalt in his two starts. The Phillies will counter with Brett Myers, whom has surrendered three bombs and nine earned runs in 12 innings. The Phillies are off to another bad start and to make matters worse, it’s bullpen is a huge liability. The Phillies are 0-3 at home while the Astros are 2-0 on the road and thus, everything here points to another Phillies loss. Play: Houston +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

Colorado +1.37 over SAN DIEGO
David Wells starts his 21st season in the majors here after appearing in just 13 games last season. In fact, Wells threw just 75 frames last year, allowing 97 hits to go along with a 4.42 ERA, which is very unimpressive when you consider Petco Park in San Diego. Wells is 44-years-old and has lived a life filled with the consumption of beer and hamburgers. This past spring Wells through 13.1 innings and was torched to the tune of 24 hits and 15 earned runs for an ERA of 9.88. So, to recap, Wells is 44, he’s never met a hamburger he didn’t like, he’s out of shape, he was buried in the spring and he his worn-out arm has over 3200 major league innings on it. Does it really matter who’s pitching for the Rockies? We think not and the fact that Wells is a -1.45 favorite here is ludicrous. Play: Colorado +1.37 (Risking 2 units).


I rushed home as fast as possible after a long day of travel. Sorry so late!! Hopefully most of you ventured over to BB's Hoops Thread to view the plays if you could not wait....and for the rest of you...hopefully I posted these in time to be useful for you.

BOL Tonight!!
 

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