Jibba's Fri MLB

Favorites: 9-0 for +10 units
Underdogs: 1-1 for +0.5 units
Total: 10-1 for +10.5 units

Things continued to go my way yesterday in 3 close games. Hope to keep it going.

Cincinatti +143: I think this opened around +150 so rather than waiting to see what it does from here, I'm going to jump on it now while I think the odds are still good. There are a number of reasons why I think there is solid value in this line. First, I don't think the public gives Harang enough credit. The guy put up a 3.76 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and 216 Ks to only 56 BBs last year. On the road he was even better. In 17 road games, he put up an ERA of 2.98 while going 9-7 for a mediocre Reds team. He's also historically pitched well against the Cubs. In his career he's 6-1 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP against them. In Wrigley, he's 2-0 in 5 starts with a 3.9 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP (also 20 Ks to 6 BBs).

On the other side we have another very solid pitcher in Zambrano. But surprisingly, he was a far better pitcher on the road last year, going 9-1 in 14 road starts with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP (7-6 & 3.75 ERA at home). He just hasn't looked like the top of the line starter he is thus far this year and the Reds already knocked him around a bit in the opener. I understand they'll be motivated tonight at home and trying to get a bit of revenge for that loss, but Harang is not the guy you want to see on the mound when you need a win. I think there's a good chance the Cubs' bats stay silent, turning this one into a pitching duel that could go either way in the end. At +143, I'll take that situation every day. 1 unit to win 1.43.

Houston +104: Oswalt owns the Phillies. In 6 games against them (32.2 innings) he's 4-1 with a 1.38 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, .212 BAA, and 34 Ks against only 9 BBs. I also think Myers has very good stuff, but he's no Oswalt. And he certainly didn't look like Oswalt with his 4.1 IP, 6 ER effort against the Marlins last week. Neither team has looked great this year, but I'll take + money on Oswalt against almost anyone. 1 unit to win 1.04.

NY Mets -180: I was hoping this would be around this number. I really like Pelfrey and think he has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy. No disrespect to Patterson, but I don't see the Nats winning two in a row on the road. He and Pelfrey are the only reason this is below -200. But Patterson has not looked like his old self yet this year, and on the road against a solid Mets team isn't the place to start. He's also never been much of a road pitcher and the Mets have historically knocked him around a bit, especially at home. 1.80 units to win 1.

Will be back in a bit but wanted to get them down before the lines start moving.

Arizona -180: I don't like paying games for juice like this all that often, but value is value. Brandon Webb gets his first home start today for the D-Backs. Webb showed improvement in this last start (7 IPs, 7 Hs, 1 ER, 8 Ks v. 3 BB) and I see no reason why this won't continue now that he gets back home, where he was very solid last year. In 15 games started last year at home, Webb was 10-2 with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and 87 Ks against 21 BBs. I respect the Rockies this year, but think they should be a 2-1 dog in this one. 1.8 units to win 1.

Two games that I really like but am waiting on to see what the line does are Toronto -144 and Oakland -105. I will almost definitely play these ones. Other leans are the Marlins -103, Brewers at -116 and Baltimore -165.

Good call yesterday jibba. I should of listened to ya!

Ok, I'm going to make the Toronto play official now.

Toronto -148: With respect to Bonderman, Halladay deserves more respect at home. Last year he was 8-3 in 17 home starts, with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He has historically pitched very well against the Tigers (10-2, 1.93 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, .218 BAA). In fact, his stats against Detroit are better than those against any other team in the AL during his career. But to be fair, that's not taking into account a much better Detroit team than in years past (Halladay did not face them last year). I don't think we'll see a line this low on Halladay very often this year, so I'll take it while I can.

Will probably make the Oakland play official shortly. Also may add a half unit to a unit on one or two of these games as I did yesterday with Cleveland and Baltimore. BOL to everyone on what may be a great day of baseball.

a153 said:

Good call yesterday jibba. I should of listened to ya!

Click to expand...

Well, it was much closer than I expected. Meche looked good and even I was shocked by the Trachsel that showed up. BOL on your plays today man.

Tried to edit one of my posts to add a lean, but it's been too long. Lean right now on Minnesota. Even with Kaz pitching, Johan deserves more than 2-1 at home against TB.

I'm down and chasing - what's one game that you feel the MOST confident with? I respect your insight my man.

Thanks

I honestly couldn't say at the moment. I'm still considering whether to add anything to any of these plays, but until I do I have to say I like them all pretty evenly (plus, my general style these days is not to vary my plays too much). I'd hate to force myself to choose a favorite and have that one lose. I can say though, that I think Cincy has a slightly less than 50-50 chance to win IMO. I think the line with + money makes it a play, but it's not something I'd chase with (although I try to never chase, as it bites me in the *ss every time). The 'Zona line is coming down, and I'm not quite sure why yet. Now at -172 or so, I think it's very good value, but I also don't know why the line is coming down so there could be something wrong there. I'll definitely be updating the thread throughout the morning though. Wish I could give you more than that man, but I'm no expert like some of these guys here. I'm actually waiting myself to see Buffettgambler's plays before adding any picks/unit. BOL man.

How about playing the Mets RL -1.5 +105, better value and Patterson should get lit up with his 9+ ERA.

I often consider taking run lines, but a few of the cappers I highly respect here at the Rx are always talking about how they are -EV and how people should stay away for the most part. So I generally follow that advice, although I'll occassionally follow someone like Boxslayer on a RL. It seems like a solid play, but Pelfrey is a wild card. I'm extremely high on him, but he's still a rookie and hasn't had a truly good start yet in the bigs. I don't see the Mets losing this one at home, but something like 5-4 or 4-3 is possible.

Minnesota -194: Been waiting to see how far this one will drop from opening around -220 or so. Still at -210 on VIP, but on MB it's crept down to -194 and I'll grab it now as I don't know when people are going to realize that Johan is a bargain at that price. Anyway, Johan doesn't lose at home. Over his career he's 42-13 at home with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 117 games (77 started). Last year he was 12-0 with a 2.19 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in the Metrodome (plus 129 Ks against only 22 BBs). That's flat out sick. Add to this that he flat out dominated the D-Rays last year going 2-0 in 2 starts with a 1.93 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 19 Ks against 5 BBs over 14 innings.

Now we look at the whiz kid from TB. Kazmir is going to be one hell of a pitcher. I have a ton of faith in this kid, but this is not the spot for him. He's comfortable at home. On the road, he's a a different pitcher thus far in his career. Last year he went a measly 5-6 on the road (given, with a bad team) with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP (1.91 and 1.0 at home). He's also never beaten the Twins and didn't look good in his two starts in the Metrodome (he wasn't terrible, but he wasn't on his game either). I don't see them pulling out a road win here against the best pitcher in baseball. 2.91 units to win 1.5.

Baltimore -170: Bedard still gets no love from the public, even against a bad KC team. Duckworth isn't anywhere near as good as he looked in his first start and Bedard is getting his first start at home today (this seems like a theme for my plays). Bedard's stuff is just too good, and unlike his first two starts, today he won't be pitching in Yankee Stadium or the Metrodome. He was far better at home than on the road last year (as has been the case throughout his career) and I see no reason to doubt that he can shut down an anemic Royals offense. 1.7 units to win 1.

Oakland -105: What does Haren need to do to get a win? He's let up one earned run this year but yet he has two losses. Haren is yet another stud starter getting his first home start this year. Just a huge pitching mismatch in this one and I don't understand why Oakland isn't favored at home with their ace going (or one of their aces that is). Igawa may not look as bad as he did in his first start, but I see no reason to think he'll put up great numbers today and at basically even money I think Haren is the clear play. 1.05 units to win 1.

Also looking at the Pitt game since virtually all the top cappers here are on them today. Also looking at the Marlins. I'm leaning away from my Brewers play now that I've seen a few people I respect on the Cards.

So this is definitely my biggest card of the year so far. But I really like it. Here's the recap:

NY Mets: 1.8 units to win 1
Houston: 1 unit to win 1.04
Cincinatti: 1 unit to win 1.43
Arizona: 1.8 units to win 1
Toronto: 1.48 units to win 1
Minnesota: 2.91 units to win 1
Baltimore: 1.7 units to win 1
Oakland: 1.05 units to win 1

BOL to everyone. Let's nail 'em.

1-0 for +1.43 units on the day. Feel lucky once again to get out with the W, but a win is a win. Adding:

Milwaukee -111: Saw a couple cappers I really respect on the Cards so I talked myself out of making this one official earlier. But I'm back on them now that the line's dropped close to 15 points (IIRC it opened on VIP at -125, and it was at -120 most of today). Gotta go with my gut here. I just think that Sheets is still undervalued this season since the public sees him as the injured Ben Sheets, as opposed to the dominating pitcher he is. While he's not a great road starter, he's also not a terrible one. And in 2004, Sheets's best season and one in which he was never injured, he put up a 2.81 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and .231 BAA on the road. Lastly, he's put up decent numbers in Busch Stadium. In 8 starts (50.2 IPs), he's 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, 45 Ks against 12 BBs, and 2 complete games.

People are a bit too high on Reyes as well IMO. He may have a bright future ahead, but he's got some work to do before then. The Brewers' offense is still young and prone to mistakes, but it helps that they're going up against a pitcher that is young and prone to mistakes, as well as an offense that has a long way to go to hit it's stride and which has to face one of the toughest pitchers in the NL tonight. 1.15 units to win 1.

BOL to everyone.