MLB: Friday April 13th Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

I may add another play or two throughout the day.

Reds @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -148
Intrinsic Value: -191
Consider Betting: -176
Comment:
Zambrano is a pitcher that feeds off emotion, and he is a better pitcher because of it. You better believe that he is going to bring a lot of it to the mound in this game, as he has been waiting to play the Reds ever since opening day, when Dunn and the Reds smacked him around the park. This favorable intangible will be complimented by favorable fundamentals. He has pitched well against the Red throughout his career, as he comes into today’s game with a career 3.00 ERA against them. Prior to his last game against Dunn, he has pitched well against him, and a few other of their batters that will be in today’s lineup. He has been one of the most effective day game pitchers in the league the past few years, and his emotion he brings to the plate is exactly what the Cubs lineup needs to wake up. The Reds are one of the more overrated lineups in the league, and need to rely on the long ball more than other teams to score runs. Although Dunn got a hold of Zambrano twice last outing, he is not a pitcher that it terribly easy to go long against. He is backed by a talented and deep bullpen that will sooner or later play to their abilities. The Reds bats, much like last year, are struggling getting things going on the road so far. They come into today’s game with a .233 road batting average.

Harrang is a solid pitcher that performed well on opening day against the Cubs. But he is not an ideal pitcher to go up against this lineup. He is a challenge fastball pitcher, a method that sooner or later will get burned by this Cubs lineup. He struggled against the Cubs last year, and Lee seems to pick him up well. Harrang has also struggled a lot more against right handed hitters throughout his career, which does not bode well for his chances in this game, as the Cubs might have the most loaded lineup from the right side in the National league. He has been much less effective during day games throughout his career, and being a fly ball pitcher might be counterproductive in this park. He is a workhorse, but because of not having any breaks in the Cubs lineup, this is an ideal team to work a pitchers pitch count. This does not bode well for Harrang, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league.

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Giants @ Pirates
Play: Pirates -148
Intrinsic Value: -182
Consider Betting Price: -167
Comment:
The only thing worse than having Ortiz on the mound, is having Ortiz on the mound and backing him with a lineup that can’t score runs. This is exactly what the Giants are bringing to the table in this game. Although Oritz will more than likely improve off of his numbers he generated the last couple of years, this doesn’t mean he will be an effective pitcher. Today he gets his first road start, a spot in which he has never pitched well in the past, as his career road ERA is near five. He is the exact type pitcher you want on the mound when you are a struggling lineup like the Pirates. He is also the type of pitcher you want to face when hitting in a hitters park, as he has been really prone to the long ball in recent years. Bay has hit him well in the past. Ortiz, much like other Giants pitchers are being affected by their dormant lineup, as the feel the need to pitch a no hitter in every start in order to win the game. The Pirates have a more talented lineup than the one they have displayed so far this season, and one that is much more dangerous at home than most people give them credit for. Backing Ortiz is a sub par bullpen that should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.

Duke’s slow start last year has really allowed him to fly under the radar. But if you take that time period away, he has been one of the most dominant southpaws in baseball the last couple of years. Today he has a good spot to continue his success this year, as he is up against the most struggling lineup in the league right now. No matter the type of pitcher, the Giants just can’t get hits. It won’t get any easier for them today, as Duke has always been solid in his home starts, and has pitched the Giants well in the past. The Giants have a lot of left handed bats as well, which could be a problem, as Duke’s style of pitching has allowed him to bury left handed hitters. Many people are surprised by Bond’s slow start after the spring he put forth. I am not in the least, as expecting him to get the same pitches he was getting in Spring just wasn’t going to happen. Duke is also backed by the deeper and more talented bullpen, which should allow them to put forth the better pitcher on the mound throughout this game.

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Astros @ Phillies
Play: Astros +106
Intrinsic Value:-120
Consider Betting Price: -106
Comment:
The Phillies are a team that feeds off of momentum, and when things go bad, they go bad for long periods of time, and just don’t change over night. Right now, things are going bad for them. Things are more than likely not going to just change around in this game, as they face a top 3 pitcher in baseball with Oswalt being on the mound. Oswalt is off to another dominant start this year, as he has allowed just two runs in his first two starts. This Phillies lineup did not get a chance to see his stuff last year, but two years back, were thoroughly dominated by him. He has been getting progressively more effective against left handed hitters as years go by, which should allow him to pitch to the Phillies lineup more effectively. He is also one of the harder pitchers to go long against, which should curtail the effects of the Phillies power and the hitter’s park he will be pitching in. He is one of the better pitchers at eating up innings and avoiding the front end up bullpens. The Astros 9th inning has become much safer with the switch to Wheeler. Timing is also favoring the Astros, as they got the day off yesterday, while the Phillies were finishing off an emotional and disappointing series in New York.

The Astros seem to be hitting better during their road games, as they are playing without the added pressure, it appears. Today they have a chance to continue this trend against a pitcher that did not look sharp on the mound in his last outing. Last year, Myers did not do an effective job curtailing the effects of this hitters park, as the allowed a homerun every six innings. He has also always started out seasons being one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, making last outing even more concerning. Once both starters leave, the Astros should be able to continue their pitching edge, the Phillies bullpen is not that talented.

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Royals @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -164
Intrinsic Value: -245
Consider Betting Price: -220
Comment:
On the surface, this looks like a lot of basis points to lay on a team that has been struggling to score runs, but in my opinion, there is a lot of hidden value here. The Orioles have not had many problems getting runners on base; their problem has been a lack of situational hitting and driving runners in during spots in which they should. This deficiency should be helped out by having Duckworth on the mound, who has been a horrific pitcher throughout his career pitching out the stretch and getting out of jams. Don’t put too much stock in his first outing where he did not allow a run. He simply has too many holes in his game to pitch well for long periods of time, and has not reached an age where turning things around may be wishful thinking. He has also always been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball, as he comes into today’s game with a six plus career road ERA, while teams having been able to hit .300 against him in those spots, as opposed to his .255 OBA during his home outings. Being backed by what might be the worst bullpen in baseball should allow the Orioles to face inferior pitcher throughout the game, which is exactly what they need to get out of their slump.

You have to like Bedard in this spot, as he is coming with some value most likely as he is coming in this game with some ugly numbers due to pitching in two unfavorable pitching situations. Today he gets a much more favorable one. He has always been a much more dominant home pitcher, and was one of the most dominant in the league last year. He has done a good job keeping balls in this small park, and poses a tough match up for this slumping Royals lineup that is not built to hit a pitcher like Bedard. He eats up left handed bats, and is tough on right handers as well. His solid command should take advantage of the lack of experience the majority of the Royals hitters have at the plate. Bedard is also finally backed by a solid bullpen, which should allow him to improve his numbers this season.

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Marlins @ Braves
Play: Marlins -102
Intrinsic Value: -129
Consider Betting Price: -116
Comment:
The Braves hot start has really inflated their price tag of late. What some are failing to realize is that their hot start has been more of a product of their pitcher than their hitting, something that might have a problem continuing in this game with Redman on the mound. On the surface, it might look like he has a good spot to put forth an impressive outing, as his finesse style might take advantage of the youth the Marlins lineup brings to the table. However, the Marlins have been showing a lot of patience at the plate so far this season, and have underrated and talented right handed hitters that could smack Redman around the park. Redman has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball the last few years, and has not had an effective season in four years. Expecting him to turn things around now may be wishful thinking, especially when having to pitch in this division. The Marlins have one of the more underrated lineups in the league, and a lineup that has not shown any slow down at the plate during their road games the last couple of years.

There has been no other lineup in the league that has given Willis more problems than the Braves. But one has to wonder how long this trend will last. Looking back at 3 of his last four starts against them last year, and it appears that this trend is slowly going away. Willis is also coming into this game with much needed confidence, as he put together two solid outings in a row. He has never had a problem pitching on the road, and in fact has been more effective in these spots. He is nearly unhittable for left handed hitters, which gives him a good chance to silence some of the young left handed talent the Braves have at the plate. Willis is also more than likely going to get the run support he is not accustomed to in years past when facing the Braves. The Braves lineup has actually been far from impressive this year, as they come into today’s game with a team batting average of .226, and a number even worse against the left handed pitchers they have faced.

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Brewers @ Cardinals
Play: Cardinals +114
Intrinsic Value: -106
Consider Betting Price: +108
Comment:
Sheets is getting a bit too much respect with this current line. This holds especially true since he has never been nearly as an effective pitcher during his road starts, and has not had past success against this Cardinals lineup. It is not surprising that the Cardinals have had more success against Sheets compared to most teams, as what they do have is a patient lineup that makes a pitcher throw strikes, making them less prone to chasing that curveball that Sheets throws out of the zone. There will be a few hitters spread across today’s lineup that has had past success against Sheets. Although the Cardinals lineup has once again struggling at the plate, they are more than likely to keep this up when facing left handers as opposed to right handers.

I like getting Reyes as a home underdog. His career numbers are far from his potential, and this reflects in the current line. Although he has struggled against the Brewers last year, I like how he matches up against him. The solid movement he has on his pitches coupled with the plus command will make impatient lineups struggle at the plate. The Brewers have one of the most impatient lineups in the league. They are also a much more dangerous lineup at home.

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Padres @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -130
Intrinsic Value: -147
Consider Betting Price: -135
Comment:
Although Lowe is a sinkerball pitcher who has a propensity to really struggle against lineups with a lot of hitters that bat from the left side, he has surprisingly dominated the Padres throughout his career, especially in games last year. He has consistently been one of the most undervalue home pitchers in baseball the last few years, and although he puts up the same home numbers as a lot of big name pitchers, he never comes with nearly the same price. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.30 ERA, and a career ERA against the Padres that is more than one run less than that. He has had past success against a few of the Padres hitters, a trend that has a good chance of continuing in today’s game, as the Padres have really been struggling at the plate, but have been able to mask this deficiency thanks to their superb pitching. Lowe is backed by a solid bullpen that should give the Padres problems at the plate throughout this game.

Wells looked solid in his first start, but has a much less favorable situation in this game. Last start was a home start, where has pitched much more effectively throughout his career, and a start against a young lineup built for power pitchers, which is the exact opposite of what Wells brings to the mound. This start is a road start, a situation in which Wells has never pitched well in, and against a veteran lineup that knows how to handle his style of pitching. Wells has struggled against the Dodgers in the past, and has been dominated by a couple of their veteran hitters throughout his career. Although he is backed by a bullpen that has not yet allowed a run, it is a bullpen that has done a good job avoiding their front end, something that they might have trouble avoiding in this game.

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Angels @ Red Sox
Play: Angels +102
Intrinsic Value: -120
Consider Betting Price: -106
Comment:
Wakefield would have preferred pitching yesterday than today. Yesterday was a day game against a lineup that he matches up better against. Today, he will have to pitch at night, a situation that has never favored the knuckleball, in weather conditions that are counter effective to the movement of the pitches. His chances of struggling have increased a lot in today’s game. He will also face a lineup with some hitters that have shown capable of hitting the knuckleball, including Guerrerro. The Angels have been swinging the bat well this season, and are actually more dangerous in their road games. Wakefield is backed by a very mediocre bullpen.

There is no denying that Lackey has struggled against the Red Sox in his career. However, the sustainability of this deficiency is lacking. His struggles against this team have occurred two plus years ago, and he has become a much more effective pitcher since then, as he has been able to rely more on his breaking bal and avoid the fastball that the Red Sox start hitters pick apart. Lackey was has also been one of the most dominant road pitchers in baseball the last couple of years, and combining that with the Angels propensity to hit the ball better on the road diminishes the home field advantage that usually plays a key role in Boston games. Being backed by a top tier bullpen give the Red Sox a good chance of keeping their struggles at the plate for another game.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 13, 2007

+1.74 yesterday

+11.93 YTD

thecruncher · Apr 13, 2007

Nice for us to win some close ones yesterday. And awfully nice of TB's Crawford to exhibit the worst base running sequence of gaffes I think MLB has ever seen to ensure they scored no runs in the top of the 9th!

Ramonskee · Apr 13, 2007

Please tell me your system sees the BJays as the better play over the Tigers?

Jibba · Apr 13, 2007

BOL on the plays BG. Only against you with the Reds. Liked the Brewers but will probably stay away after reading your analysis. Was already on a few of these so I'm glad to see you on them and will likely follow on the rest (except of course my Red Sox, although with Lackey going it looks like a good play).

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

thecruncher said:
Nice for us to win some close ones yesterday. And awfully nice of TB's Crawford to exhibit the worst base running sequence of gaffes I think MLB has ever seen to ensure they scored no runs in the top of the 9th!

Very crazy play. Could have easily lost that game, but even if Crawford didn't make that blunder, the Drays pen would have had a hard time finishing that game out. Lucky to win it, but felt the Jays gave that game away. That stuff evens out over the coures of the season (hopefully).

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Ramonskee said:
Please tell me your system sees the BJays as the better play over the Tigers?

I have the Blue Jays valued at -131 Tigers +131. If the Tigers hit +153 I will take a posistion on them. The Jays are not hitting in the clutch and are being backed by poor managing. Without Glauss, things might only get worse. The Jays have faced hittable left handers, their favorite type of pitcher the last couple of games, but will now face a more difficult challenge for their right handed bats.
I give them the better chance of winning, but the Tigers are the teams coming with some value. But at the current market price, not enough to play it.

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

Jibba said:
BOL on the plays BG. Only against you with the Reds. Liked the Brewers but will probably stay away after reading your analysis. Was already on a few of these so I'm glad to see you on them and will likely follow on the rest (except of course my Red Sox, although with Lackey going it looks like a good play).

Good luck Jibba. With the way you have been picking games of late, I do not want to be on the other side. Keep up the good work.

finman13 · Apr 13, 2007

again looking at what i picked this morning compared to yours, im on all the same games. that blue jay game is a stay away game for me. kinda like the a's and the under. santana at home is almost unbeatable and is facing a dray team that has won something like 5 of the last 40 something road games. you rarely get santana at home at about -210. im leaning on the cubs, but they keep disappointing me so that is the only pick im a bit leary on.

also how often will you be getting oswalt, one of the best in the game, as an underdog. bargains on bedard and willis to in my opinion. good luck everyone.

Jibba · Apr 13, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Good luck Jibba. With the way you have been picking games of late, I do not want to be on the other side. Keep up the good work.

Thanks for noticing. I chalk it up to a bit of luck and to what I've learned so far this short season from cappers like yourself.

geauxhome · Apr 13, 2007

buffet, any change of opinion with the recent news regarding cubs line up changes...ie derusa out, etc????

finman13 · Apr 13, 2007

nice start by the cubbies. feeling good about tonight

buffettgambler · Apr 13, 2007

geauxhome said:
buffet, any change of opinion with the recent news regarding cubs line up changes...ie derusa out, etc????

Game already started, so it doesn't matter. But In general, injuries are overrated by the public, especially short term ones. With the fundamental match up in this game and the depth of the Cubs lineup, Ramirez absence would have about a five basis point effect. Derosa about 3. The combination about 9, which would still put their intrinsic value in the low -180's and stil carrying a lot of value.