Boxslayer's MLB Friday (19-10, +14.01)

19-10, +14.01

Small winning day yesterday to right the ship.

2* Cincinatti Reds +148

What a value on the Reds in this game.

Not only are they playing better baseball right now, but the pitching match-up is not this far off at all. In fact, I could probably make an argument that the Reds should be favored in this game.

Anyway, just a great, great price for the Reds here. We have the rematch between Harang and Zambrano. Harang dominated the Cubs in Cincy, while Zambrano struggled a little bit. If Zambrano battled in that game, and was a tough luck loser, I would like him in this spot....but still not at this price.

Carlos Zambrano is a very emotional pitcher. And that sort of thing is great when it is mid-season, and your intensity is through the roof, while everyone else is going through the motions. IMO, thats when Zambrano has value. But early season, and late season - that's when everyone else is fired up, too - and Zambrano gets out of control. His control suffers most, as he becomes a larger headcase, he throws more balls. And it's no surprise to see Zambrano's ERA early and late season much higher than when he settles down, and settles into the season.

Zambrano was owned last game by Adam Dunn, and Zambrano will have to try and pitch him carefully. Problem is, there are other Reds that are playing good baseball right now in that lineup, and that includes Josh Hamilton, once widely considered a can't miss prospect. Hamilton had been the Todd Van Poppel-like punchline of bust jokes, but with homeruns his past two games, this former #1 pick has finally found his place in the bigs after 8 years. This guy wants this so bad, and he is here to stay. This Reds team has some pieces, and they will battle today in Chicago.

Aaron Harang is one of the best road pitchers in the National League, and he is fresh off dominating this same Cubs team in his opening start. He was very effective just a few days ago, and I don't see why he won't be effective again here vs. a Cubs team that isnt playing good baseball right now. With the expectations of this Cubs team, their off seaosn signings and Sweet Lou, they have hobbled out of the gate, and the pressure is never applied too early in baseball cities like Chicago. This team may start pressing in this young season, and they have a tall task of trying to figure out Harang again today.

In a game that may turn out to be a pitcher's duel, and one swing of the bat can change the game, I'll gladly take +148 and run with it and the hotter team.

Cincinatti 4
Chicago 2

With you on this one BOX...love betting against the Cubs at home.

woof woof o0o0 you know im in

Cincinnati -1' +220 ?

Best of luck, All over the Reds here

Love to see you on this one. See the game exactly the same way. BOL Box.

ssbowtie1 said:

Cincinnati -1' +220 ?

Click to expand...

No, I personally wouldn't. I don't like betting run lines in games that could be potential pitching duels, as that 1-run could make all the difference.

PS - what book do you have that offers -1? I miss the Pinnacle days!

Good luck today box! :thumbsup:

Boxslayer said:

No, I personally wouldn't. I don't like betting run lines in games that could be potential pitching duels, as that 1-run could make all the difference.

PS - what book do you have that offers -1? I miss the Pinnacle days!

Click to expand...

-1'

the ' is the hook. I thought that was the lingo...maybe I'm just crazy though.

I use thegreek and it seems that's what you use too since our lines are always similar...although I only see +138 for the cin game today.

Anyways, good luck today!

ssbowtie1 said:

-1'

the ' is the hook. I thought that was the lingo...maybe I'm just crazy though.

I use thegreek and it seems that's what you use too since our lines are always similar...although I only see +138 for the cin game today.

Anyways, good luck today!

Click to expand...

I recently picked up Bodog as another option, as they have great underdog lines and have heard good things about their payouts.

Used ewalletxpress to transfer with absolutely no problems.

Missed the apostrophe. It's not widely used around here.

2* Florida Marlins -104

Another great value on Dontrelle Willis here.

The Atlanta Braves great start this season has kept this line very reasonable for Marlin backers. Dontrelle is one of the elite pitchers in the game, and anytime you can get an elite pitcher like Dontrelle at this kind of a price vs. an old journeyman finesse left-hander - I'm on it.

Mark Redman, a former Marlin, starts fo the Braves tonight. He got roughed up pretty good in his first outing at Turner Field. He faces a young, hungry Marlin lineup, void of lefthanded bats. Redman holds lefties to a .260 average, but he wont face many tonight. He'll face a red hot Miguel Cabrera and his right handed companions. Redman allows a whopping .301 avg. vs. righthanded batters. Throw in the fact that Dontrelle is arguably the best hitting pitcher in the game, and the Marlins should be able to plate some runs tonight vs. an Atlanta team that is batting in the low .200's this season.

Dontrelle will get to face a few left-handed bats in Atlanta's lineup, and he'll turn the 35 year old Chipper Jones around to the right side. Jones is a .276 hitter the past 3 years from the right side, about .20 points lower than the left.

Atlanta is off a crushing loss to Washington last night, in which Smoltz through a shutout most of the game, only to lose 2-0. Could this be the beginning of a Braves funk?

With Marlins manager Freddy Gonzalez, a former member of the Brave coaching staff, making his return to Atlanta tonight, he will want this game, and series bad with his horse going tonight vs. his old team.

Marlins 6
Braves 3

1* Reds/Cubs under 7.5 -120

Already leaned to the under, and with Ramirez and DeRosa out....I'm pretty confident this game is a pitcher's duel. Grabbed some of this under 7.5 for 1 unit.

PS - Reds are something like 6-0 last 6 off an off day.

Good luck

Posted the Reds and Marlins before I seen this....Glad to see youre on them also...

i like the under too so far when i really like a play before you post it well 2 for 2 lets keep that trend going

nice winner on the Reds, lost a little on the under...overall, a good start to the day

1-1, +1.76

2* Milwaukee Brewers -119
1* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +135

Nice spot here for the Brewers as they fall into one of my personal golden nugget trends: Fade teams in game 1... off road sweeps starting a new series.

St. Louis fits the bill here, as they are off a road sweep, and now start a new series with the Brewers. St. Louis for example, was 0-5 in game 1's of a new series last year after they completed a road sweep.

Besides that little system of mine, I like Ben Sheets to bounce back in a big way. When this guy pitched for Team USA, he stepped up in big games and made a big name for himself. On opening day this year, big game, he dominated.

Now a big game at St. Louis vs. the defending champs. He steps up in these types of situations, especially after getting knocked around last week I think he returns to dominant form vs. a Cardinals team that is struggling to hit and score runs right now.

Milwaukee is finding ways to win right now, and did what they had to vs. Florida in Florida. Extra innings, postponed games, 1-run games, this team is in a good spot to continue it's hard fought winning ways.

Just great value on Sheets, an ace in this spot vs. a guy like Reyes who is a mid rotation guy.

Milwaukee 5
St. Louis 2

That's all tonight. Hope to come home to some drunken winnas.

Box - got -110 and +140 at Bet Jamaica. Western Unioned them over a G today and they gave me a 10% reload and paid the Western Union fee. Also are sending me a debit card in the mail so I can withdraw easily. You should look into them.

Good luck on the game tonight, as we share very similiar opinions on these two.

:aktion033

Nice day Boxy

thanks Box!