MLB FRIDAY PICK (4-3-0 YTD +1.2 UNITS) With Writeup

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2007 RECORD: 4-3-0 +1.2 Units

FRIDAY 4/13/2007: <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City> Astros (Roy Oswalt) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Brett Myers)

PLAY ON: <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">PHILADELPHIA</st1:City></st1:place> PHILLIES (MoneyLine, -105) To Win 1 Unit

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p> </o:p>
Well, what can I say about this pick? We’re playing against Roy Oswalt with a 1.08 ERA and a practically flawless track record. While there are some talent advantages for <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:place></st1:City>, it certainly isn’t in the pitching sector. So what vindicates this play? Well, it comes down once again to an emotional advantage that <st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City> should be able to execute tonight (something <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City></st1:place> was unable to do on the road last night).
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1:place> is feeling cocky, the exact opposite of what you’re feeling after seeing this pick. They come into this game on a nice two-game winning streak against a talented division rival in the Chicago Cubs. They got two impressive outings out of their new pitchers, and two victories against Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Now <st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City> gets to cruise into <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:place></st1:City> and face the current laughingstock of the National League. Not only that, but they’ve got Roy Oswalt on the mound against Brett Myers and his 6.75 ERA. So, honestly, how could they possibly lose?
<o:p> </o:p>
On the other side of the ball is a Philly team that is desperately in need of a victory. They took a brutal loss against Tom Glavine last night, and now have a desperate need to prove their worth. Well, here’s their chance. They have an opportunity tonight to prove all the critics wrong, and hit up one of the best pitchers in baseball. More importantly, this is their opportunity to prove to themselves that they are a legitimate contender. This team is hungry and determined to get out there tonight and play to the absolute best of their abililty against the absolute best pitcher in the National League.
<o:p> </o:p>
So, the question is, will their best be enough?
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After seeing world-class pitching last night, Oswalt shouldn’t be too much for the Phillies to handle. While he will be a formidable challenge, he is not unhittable, and has actually had a pretty low strikeout-rate thus far. The Phillies have faced the cream of the NL crop in their first ten games, facing guys like Smoltz, Hudson, Willis and Glavine. Despite this, the Phillies have one of the highest On-Base-Percentages in the league at .353, the best OBP the Phillies have posted since 1993. At 5.3 runs per game, I have <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City></st1:place> rated as one of the strongest offensive teams in the league.
<o:p> </o:p>
Brett Myers, still well under the radar, stamped his name on the #1 starter spot coming into this 2007 season. He is the ace of this staff, and has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in his last two seasons with the Phillies. This stat is particularly impressive considering <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Citizens</st1:placeName> <st1:placeName w:st="on">Bank</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">Park</st1:placeType></st1:place> is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game. Myers’ worst start this season came against <st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State>, after throwing nearly 8 innings of 3-run ball against <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:place></st1:City> on opening day. He has the ability to throw a complete game at any time, and has struck out nearly a batter per inning over the past two years. All in all, he is more than capable of keeping the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City> hitters at bay. By the way, the best pitcher <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City> has faced this season goes by the name of Ted Lilly. They should be in for quite a surprise tonight against Myers’ nasty stuff.
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To keep it short and sweet, the Phillies have the ability to hit Oswalt, and Myers has the ability to shut down the ‘Stros. The generous <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1:place> line on this game once again hints towards high regard for Brett Myers in the eyes of the Vegas Oddsmakers.
<o:p> </o:p>
Let this pick mark the turning point of our season.
<o:p> </o:p>
Good luck.
<o:p> </o:p>
Chase
 

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Always enjoy your writeups man. But once again I'm on the opposite end. Like Myers but he's no Oswalt. BOL.
 

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