The MAJOR problem with baseball = BULLPEN & "closer" BS !!

Here is the major flaw in being able to bet and win consistently on baseball =

The BULLPEN and the CLOSER postitions.

These are TWO, yes (2) factors you CANNOT factor into your equation for value determination.

Even the very best BullPen ass, well, he will be ON or OFF, because of the fact that he has to sit around, wait, and then come into a situation that is:

a. Team is winning
b. Team is losing.

You still have to pitch great to get any recognition or wins.

So, you bet the starting pitcher, say SMOLTZ, and for all practical purposes, he looks like the total bomb. And, then, he pitches like he is the reincarnate of God. man, he is pitching his ass off. But, he is tied, when the manager decides to take him out.

Then, Billy Bullpen Bullshit guy comes in. Oh fucking boyu! It is now a crap-shoot, who the fuck KNOWS what is going to happen now. Even the studs = they seem to lose focus and shit, the other team jumps up and on them, and now, you (as a betting man) are in big shit. BIG SHIT.

Not because you didn't pick the BEST pitcher (and by the way, the LINE is set according to the starting pitcers), you had the best guy -300 for Atlanta, SMOLTZ, and he is clearly the best. But, his team doesn't hit the fucking ball. WTGDF?

So, after 8 innings, your stud sits, and Billy Buttfuck comes in. Duh, uh, hello, uh, doh! Grabbing my cup and spitting seeds, oh , do I have some seeds shit on my shirt, oh sorry, uh, how many outs are there now? We are winning, right? Oh, uh, cool, yeah, I guess I'm 'warm'. Damn, we're up 2, I can take some chances, throw some cool shit here.

Uh, oh, well, that Vernon Wells just rifled one OUT of here on me, but fuck, we are still up. Ball four. Oh, well, a double play, and I'm out of here.

Fuck, a base hit. OK. I'll throw my heat on this MF, and he will sit his ass down.

Pow. I'm looking up and back = oh, shit, it's gone. Crap. Here comes coach.

And, Uncle Steve in TexLand has lost because of my delirious, stupid, MF ass! Well, he didn't know I would suck, so fuck him. I'm 6-8 this year, alsmost 50%. Shit.


yep. That is how we lose, right there. If our team/pitcher can go, the team hits, then we got it. But the dagger to the heart, is those bullpen/closer guys.

They will KILL you. OR, the CAN kill you. Because, almost EVERY time? You can't know WHO will be coming into the game. Think about that.

US in TexLand
:WTF:

That's something I do.When I cap a game I don't base my pick on just the starting pitcher,You gotta look at their bullpens also and how the bullpens have done against their opponents in the past.Baseball is the easiest sport to bet.

Right now Yankee bullpen blows....Farnsworth gives up the tying HR...what BS

Bet offshore and bet the first 5 innings?

Drugs are bad....mmkay?

GreenDoberman said:

Drugs are bad....mmkay?

Click to expand...

mmarethey?

us

GreenDoberman said:

Drugs are bad....mmkay?

Click to expand...

BTW, I rate your avatar at 99.9 out of 100.

Just for the record.

Nothing more or mmmmmless.

Smooth.



US

When you bet on baseball you bet on the "TEAM", not the starting pitcher. You must take every member of the team into consideration when making a bet. Often times lines are inflated terribly because of the starting pitcher.

Kruser6 said:

When you bet on baseball you bet on the "TEAM", not the starting pitcher. You must take every member of the team into consideration when making a bet. Often times lines are inflated terribly because of the starting pitcher.

Click to expand...

True. But most DRAMA happens when the ball goes into the othe guy's hand.

You just don't ever know.

I saw Billy Wagner (METS) last year, give up 5 runs, lost the game in the last inning.

Jenks, the other night, gave up 3 or 4 to Oakland - lost.

BALT (Loewen) pitched awesome two nights ago, game tied 0-0 in the 11th inning vs. DET. Bullpen butthole gives up the dinger.

HOW, HOW, do you figure that into the equation???????

You can't, you don't, even if you see the STUD is DUE to pitch in tonight's game. NO guarantee. Closers. MOST of the time, it' for a couple of out's, but if they go more than a couple of outs, then give up a couple of runs?

You dead. Yep. I can't seem to find a factor that can determine what is on the manager's mind when these switches occur.

IT DOES MATTER. The only thing I can think of, is play the percentage, in other words, watch and see if Joe Stud Closer pitched last night. Even still, Jenks for CWS pitched two, three nights in a row.

Hard to figure.


US

If you dont think you can count on any bullpens then bet first fives. that simple

smartz said:

If you dont think you can count on any bullpens then bet first fives. that simple

Click to expand...

Yes.

Yes.

I agree, I will put this into action. Thanks.

It's true, you know. angle.

US

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Life ain't nothing but bitches and money . . .



Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Ozone City
Posts: 623


</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_4036109 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid"><!-- icon and title -->
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by GreenDoberman
Drugs are bad....mmkay?
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
BTW, I rate your avatar at 99.9 out of 100.

Just for the record.

Nothing more or mmmmmless.

Smooth.



US
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Not even her best pic, but nonetheless a valued Rx poster and friend.

Uncle Steve, as has been suggested above, have you ever tried or thought about trying first five inning lines?

You can try splitting the unit 60% on first five innings, 40% on game. That's how I played the Rangers tonight. Ended up, the full unit came in as both bets won, but I would've been covered if the bullpen had blown the lead.

HEY STEVIE,

Tough night ??? I lost 4 unders yesterday thanks to shit pens. All 4 scored runs in the last at bat.

Red Sox
Orioles
Rockies
Indians

I feel your pain:lol: :drink: :drink: