MLB: Saturday April 14th Plays

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Reds @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -129
Intrinsic Value -166
Consider Betting Price: -152
Comment:

Last season, the best thing that could have happened to the Tigers happened in mid April prior to the A’s series, when the Tigers were coming off a disappointing loss. Leyland lit a fuse under the team, and the team responded and never looked back. Although on the surface, the Cubs disappointing loss yesterday was tough to take, in the long run, it could pay off big dividends if Pinella was successful in lighting a fuse under the team. Today they send a young southpaw on the mound that possesses one of the nastiest curveballs in the game. After struggling early last season, he finished out the year in dominant fashion, and since the break, he was nearly unhittable. He started this year where he left off last year, as he allowed just one hit in his first start. Although he struggled against the Reds last year, he matches up well against them, as he can neutralize their left handed power. He has allowed just two home runs from the left side, and has been overpowering on right handers as well. The Reds bats have been far from impressive, and did not do anything to win yesterdays game. Hill is backed by a deep and solid bullpen that dominated the Reds yesterday.

Sooner or later, the Cubs bats are going to come alive. They simply have too much talent not too. Although they face a pitcher that dominated them last year, the sustainability factor of such is lacking. Arroyo’s biggest asset is his unorthodox backwards pitching style that has been a novelty for most NL hitters. This is no longer the case for the Cubs bats. Last year, in most of his games against the Cubs, he did not have to face Lee, and Floyd was not on the team, which does not sound like much, but he has really struggled against left handed hitters. Arroyo’s junk is also easier to pick up during the day, and it reflected in his stats last year, as his day game numbers were over a run worse than his night stats. The Cubs already showed once this year that Arroyo is not going to be able to dominate them in the fashion that he did last year, as they touched him up for 8 hits and four runs in his first start. Although the Reds bullpen has been pitching really well of late, they simply lack the talent to keep it up for a long period of time.
 

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Marlins @ Braves
Play: Marlins +116
Intrinsic Value: -101
Consider Betting Price: +113
Comment:
I am not sure what the public’s fascination with the Braves and their hot streak is, but it has been generated by their starting pitching and not their offense, which has not shown much so far this season. This does not bode well for their chances in this game, as they send yet another starting pitcher on the mound that lacks effective stuff and could get overmatched by this Marlins lineup. Although Davies pitched well in his first outing, he simply lacks the consistency and command to keep these type of performances going. He still is extremely hittable, and was thoroughly dominated last year by the Marlins, who were able to score nine runs against him in six innings of work. Davies has not been effective against right handed or left handed bats, which compliments this well balanced and underrated Marlins lineup. He has the propensity to try to overpower hitters, which gets him in trouble due to his lack of command. This is the exact style of pitching this young lineup likes to hit against. There are a few players on the team that has shown an ability to hit him well in the limited at bats against him. Although the Braves bullpen is much improved, it is mainly improved in the back end. The front end got in a lot of work yesterday and still isn’t terribly talented. It is also a portion which Davies might have a hard time avoiding.

Olsen has really been flying under the radar so far in his young career, but he already has one of the best sliders in baseball and could overpower any lineup in the league. Although he has some ugly numbers against the Braves, they lack sustainability. Most of those numbers were generated when he was going through and ugly stretch primarily caused by dead arm, while a lot of those numbers were generated by hitters no longer on the team. He is also a rare young pitcher that has shown a preference to pitch away from home, as he has impressive career road numbers. The Braves lineup is struggling at the plate and has not picked up southpaws well. The lack of patience they possess at the plate prevents the opposing pitcher from throwing a lot of pitches, which bodes well for teams like the Marlins who lack ideal bullpens. It also compliments pitchers like Olsen who picks apart hitters that swing at his slider that rarely is in the strike zone.
 

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Royals @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -169
Intrinsic Value: -224
Consider Betting Price: -201
Comment:
This is the sixth game in a row in which I went against the Royals on the road. Until books factor in their inability to play well away from home, I will continue to find value in their opponents line. The Orioles have actually been swinging the bat better than their numbers would tell you. They have done a solid job getting runners on base, but have lacked the situational hitting to bring them home. Sooner or later that trend reverses itself. Today they get a good chance to do that, as they face a pitcher whose career went downhill in a hurry. Perez was looking for this year to be the year in which he finally turns things around and become the pitcher he once was. After his first two starts, it looks like that will be far from the case. Perez has been extremely hittable and ineffective on the mound, and has always been known to struggle most on the road. Although the Orioles are far from a potent lineup against southpaws, this switch might be a good thing far them, as their productivity and finishing off innings against right handed pitching has been lacking. Perez is not a candidate to go deep into games, and is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball, and a bullpen in which the Orioles hitters have had a good look at two days in a row now. This is a good spot for them to carry the momentum of last nights 8th inning in today’s game.

Cabrera has the stuff to be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. However, he lacks the mental strength and command to allow him to become such. However, Mazzoni has been working on these two deficiencies a lot and it appears to be paying off. He looked solid in both his starts and showed an improved command. He in fact went seven innings without walking a batter in his last start, which is a really good sign that he finally may have turned the corner. Today he has a good spot for him to carry that momentum, as he faces a struggling lineup that has consistently been one of the least potent road lineups in baseball. It is also a lineup that he has pitched well against in the past. Cabrera has reached a comfort zone when pitching on his home mound as well, and has been more effective pitching here throughout his career. He usually struggles against veteran lineups that have patience at the plate, as it forces him to come into the strike zone. The Royals lack this asset, which will fall right into Cabrera’s liking. He buries right handed bats, and the Royals are not dangerous from the left side. He is also backed by the most improved bullpen in baseball, which should make it hard for the Royals to come out of their funk in this game.
 

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I am curious about your thoughts on the CWS/CLE and COL/ARZ games.

IS
 

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I am curious about your thoughts on the CWS/CLE and COL/ARZ games.

IS

I didn't derive a value on the White Sox game, as I need to see Danks pitch a couple more times for me to feel comfortable assessing his value.

As far as the Rockies game goes, I valued the game at Dbacks -114/Rockies +114. I was expecting the Rockies to come with a bit more basis points than the current market price, but they got bid down overnight.
Cook has been known to struggle against the Dbacks. He is a sinkerbal pitcher who struggles against left handed bats. In the past, the Dbacks were loaded from the left side, and the park they play in is built for left handers. Some of their left handed bats are gone, but they still have the park and a few hitters that could give him problems. I am not a big fan of Hernandez, and he has been owned by the Rockies in the past. However, keep in mind, that most of this "ownage" has occured in Coors field, and it is no suprise. His soft throwing style is countered by the thin air of Coors, and leaves the pitches up where he doesnt want them. Outside of Coors, his style matches up well against this fastball hitting lineup.
Not enough value on either side to make a position.

Good luck.
 

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I didn't derive a value on the White Sox game, as I need to see Danks pitch a couple more times for me to feel comfortable assessing his value.

As far as the Rockies game goes, I valued the game at Dbacks -114/Rockies +114. I was expecting the Rockies to come with a bit more basis points than the current market price, but they got bid down overnight.
Cook has been known to struggle against the Dbacks. He is a sinkerbal pitcher who struggles against left handed bats. In the past, the Dbacks were loaded from the left side, and the park they play in is built for left handers. Some of their left handed bats are gone, but they still have the park and a few hitters that could give him problems. I am not a big fan of Hernandez, and he has been owned by the Rockies in the past. However, keep in mind, that most of this "ownage" has occured in Coors field, and it is no suprise. His soft throwing style is countered by the thin air of Coors, and leaves the pitches up where he doesnt want them. Outside of Coors, his style matches up well against this fastball hitting lineup.
Not enough value on either side to make a position.

Good luck.

Thanks.

IS
 

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Brewers @ Cardinals
Play: Brewers +125
Intrinsic Value +100
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:

I am not a big fan of betting on Suppan, but he has proven in the past that he is more than capable of pitching well in pressure situations, which will be the case, as he pitches against his former team. Although he has some poor numbers against a few of the Cardinals hitters that he will have to face today, it potentially lacks a sustainability factor, as almost all those numbers were generated three plus years ago. Suppan is more vulnerable against lineups that are loaded from the left side, which is simply not the case with the Cardinals lineup. He is backed by a relatively deep bullpen who possesses a few pitchers that have had past success against the Cardinals. Expectations are high from the public regarding the Cardinals, but they simply have the talent to be a solid team this year. Their lineups has once again started slow out of the gates, and although they are more prone to struggle against left handed pitching, they have actually been less productive against right handers, and have managed just three home runs all year against right handed pitching. Suppan liked pitching in this park last year. The Cardinals lineup is heavily dependent on Pujols, and he isn’t hitting the ball well right now.

Although Wells has started off the season in solid fashion, I have still doubting how long he could keep pitching in the manner that he has. This might be a spot for a letdown, as he is most vulnerable against lineups with power from the left side, which he will be up against in today’s game. The Brewers are a team that thrives off of momentum, and they have generated just that, winning four of their last five games. Their lineup has been hitting the ball better than the Cardinals, and have been especially hitting the ball well against right handed pitching. The Cardinals have an overrated bullpen that lacks depth. It is also a bullpen that has their fair share of pitchers with past struggles against the Brewers prior to the 9th inning.
 

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had to put my plays in before i saw yours. played the cubs, orioles and giants. armas is a go againts pitcher right now and bonds lights up the pirates.
 

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