Jibba's MLB Sat

Favorites: 13-2 for +9.29 units
Underdogs: 3-1 for +2.97 units
Total: 16-3 for +12.26 units

Stupid of me to make a 1.5 unit play on such a big favorite yesterday with the Twins. Oh well, still +1.76 units on the day if my math is correct.

Chicago Cubs -128: I don't feel completely comfortable going against Arroyo when he's playing a team he owned last year. In 5 starts against the Cubs he has an ERA of 1.01. That's insane. But he wasn't a solid road starter (even though he didn't let up an earned run in Wrigley) and I still believe we will see a regression this year. As a Sox fan, I really never understood how he looked so dominating in the NL last year. He's a solid pitcher, but not the one we all saw last year.

On the other hand, I don't think the public realizes how good Rich Hill is. That, factored in with the fact that the public also thinks the Cubs may never win again, pushes this one over the edge for me. I think the line should be closer to -140 to -150.

Gonna make this one official and be back with more.

I went with you on the astros, reds, and the mets yesterday (also I got lucky with toronto..a rare 4-0 day), and have been watching your work the last week or so. You're doing a great job. I always like when something I'm leaning toward is one of your plays. I like the Cubbies today, and was wondering what you thought about Arizona against the Rockies.

Thanks guys. Really annoyed right now. Just wrote out my plays in IE and now it's frozen. Gotta go to the tax guy today and then the Sox so I'm going to have to make this brief. Most lines are from MB, with 1 or 2 from VIP.

Philly -178: Briefly, I think Hamels shines in a home start and pitching mismatch against a very weak offense. 1.78 units to win 1.

Baltimore -169: Think KC gets too much respect, especially on the road, and that Cabrera gets very little respect. 2.54 units win 1.5.

Boston -191: May be a homer bet, but I'm going to the game and will make sure Schill pulls out the win. :lol: Seriously though, this is a horrible pitching mismatch for Anaheim as they continue to battle the injury bug. Boston bats are clicking right now. 1.91 units to win 1.

Minnesota -133: I'll go right back to them today at this price. Tampa is horrible on the road and probably still riding high from beating Johan.
1.33 units to win 1.

San Fran -127: I was kicking myself for following a ton of solid cappers on the Rx who liked Pitt. But that'll happen. They'll win me more than they'll lose for me over the long run. Today though, I'm taking Zito to show why the Giants spent so much money on him. 1.9 units to win 1.5.

Florida +113: There is a reason that Davies did not make the opening day roster and lost the job to Lance Courmier, of all people. I'll stick with the Marlins' hot bats.

Leans on Toronto, Milwaukee, and Arizona.

slad said:

I went with you on the astros, reds, and the mets yesterday (also I got lucky with toronto..a rare 4-0 day), and have been watching your work the last week or so. You're doing a great job. I always like when something I'm leaning toward is one of your plays. I like the Cubbies today, and was wondering what you thought about Arizona against the Rockies.

Click to expand...

I like the D-Backs today, but was burned by Colorado yesterday. The Rockies are a solid team and I haven't quite figured them out yet. Always been a fan of Livan but was hoping to get this closer to even money after the Rockies beat Webb yesterday. Gonna look around for more opinions on this one as I don't have the time to dig into it fully on my own.

Man, I hope playing this many games doesn't hurt my results so far. But I see value in everything I've played and that's all I can do. I'm also slowly starting to discipline myself to be able play a couple games here and there for more units. Always like to start off a season pretty much flat betting until I know the landscape.

San Diego -114: Peavy owns LA and IMO has shown that he is bouncing back big this year. Since 2003, Peavy is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in eight starts against LA. Schmidt may still be feeling the effects of his tweaked hamstring. 1.7 units to win 1.5.

Milwaukee +116: Liked them initially as I don't think the Cards are playing good ball right now. Didn't pull the trigger right away because I was hoping for a better line, but I've seen BuffettGambler and Boxslayer on this one and that was enough to push me over the edge. Also like Suppan going against his old team and think the Milwaukee's young bats can light up Wells. 1 unit to win 1.16.

Adding half a unit to the Cubs game, but the line is now at 1.32. So far this is my entire card, and I can't imagine I'll add more, but anything is possible. Value is value.

Chicago Cubs: 1.94 to win 1.5.
Philadelphia Phillies: 1.78 units to win 1.
Baltimore Orioles: 2.54 units to win 1.5.
Boston Red Sox: 1.91 units to win 1.
Minnesota Twins: 1.33 units to win 1.
San Francisco Giants: 1.9 units to win 1.5.
Florida Marlins: 1 unit to win 1.13.
San Diego Padres: 1.7 units to win 1.5.
Milwaukee Brewers: 1 unit to win 1.16.

BOL to everyone on their plays today.