Marlins @ Braves
Play: Marlins +168
Intrinsic Value: +125
Consider Betting Price: +146
Comment:
Win or lose, I am baffled to see this line priced so high. The Braves are quickly becoming one of the most overvalued teams in baseball. There is no denying that Hudson has looked dominant on the mound to start off this season, but expecting him to return to the pitcher that posted mid 3 ERA’s year in and year out is probably not wise. It is safe to say that his name now outweighs his pitching ability. I am also not getting carried away with his first two starts, as one was against a team that he has always had success against, while the other was against a team anyone can have success against. This may be Hudson’s biggest test, as he faces one of the hotter lineups in the league, and a lineup with three young hitters with past success against him. It is also a lineup with some underrated left handed hitters that could give Hudson problems. Simply put, Hudson is no longer an elite pitcher, but continues to be priced as one.
Olsen has really been flying under the radar so far in his young career, but he already has one of the best sliders in baseball and could overpower any lineup in the league. Although he has some ugly numbers against the Braves, they lack sustainability. Most of those numbers were generated when he was going through and ugly stretch primarily caused by dead arm, while a lot of those numbers were generated by hitters no longer on the team. He is also a rare young pitcher that has shown a preference to pitch away from home, as he has impressive career road numbers. The Braves lineup is struggling at the plate and has not picked up southpaws well. The lack of patience they possess at the plate prevents the opposing pitcher from throwing a lot of pitches, which bodes well for teams like the Marlins who lack ideal bullpens. It also compliments pitchers like Olsen who picks apart hitters that swing at his slider that rarely is in the strike zone.
Play: Marlins +168
Intrinsic Value: +125
Consider Betting Price: +146
Comment:
Win or lose, I am baffled to see this line priced so high. The Braves are quickly becoming one of the most overvalued teams in baseball. There is no denying that Hudson has looked dominant on the mound to start off this season, but expecting him to return to the pitcher that posted mid 3 ERA’s year in and year out is probably not wise. It is safe to say that his name now outweighs his pitching ability. I am also not getting carried away with his first two starts, as one was against a team that he has always had success against, while the other was against a team anyone can have success against. This may be Hudson’s biggest test, as he faces one of the hotter lineups in the league, and a lineup with three young hitters with past success against him. It is also a lineup with some underrated left handed hitters that could give Hudson problems. Simply put, Hudson is no longer an elite pitcher, but continues to be priced as one.
Olsen has really been flying under the radar so far in his young career, but he already has one of the best sliders in baseball and could overpower any lineup in the league. Although he has some ugly numbers against the Braves, they lack sustainability. Most of those numbers were generated when he was going through and ugly stretch primarily caused by dead arm, while a lot of those numbers were generated by hitters no longer on the team. He is also a rare young pitcher that has shown a preference to pitch away from home, as he has impressive career road numbers. The Braves lineup is struggling at the plate and has not picked up southpaws well. The lack of patience they possess at the plate prevents the opposing pitcher from throwing a lot of pitches, which bodes well for teams like the Marlins who lack ideal bullpens. It also compliments pitchers like Olsen who picks apart hitters that swing at his slider that rarely is in the strike zone.