MLB: Sunday April 15th Plays

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Marlins @ Braves
Play: Marlins +168
Intrinsic Value: +125
Consider Betting Price: +146
Comment:

Win or lose, I am baffled to see this line priced so high. The Braves are quickly becoming one of the most overvalued teams in baseball. There is no denying that Hudson has looked dominant on the mound to start off this season, but expecting him to return to the pitcher that posted mid 3 ERA’s year in and year out is probably not wise. It is safe to say that his name now outweighs his pitching ability. I am also not getting carried away with his first two starts, as one was against a team that he has always had success against, while the other was against a team anyone can have success against. This may be Hudson’s biggest test, as he faces one of the hotter lineups in the league, and a lineup with three young hitters with past success against him. It is also a lineup with some underrated left handed hitters that could give Hudson problems. Simply put, Hudson is no longer an elite pitcher, but continues to be priced as one.

Olsen has really been flying under the radar so far in his young career, but he already has one of the best sliders in baseball and could overpower any lineup in the league. Although he has some ugly numbers against the Braves, they lack sustainability. Most of those numbers were generated when he was going through and ugly stretch primarily caused by dead arm, while a lot of those numbers were generated by hitters no longer on the team. He is also a rare young pitcher that has shown a preference to pitch away from home, as he has impressive career road numbers. The Braves lineup is struggling at the plate and has not picked up southpaws well. The lack of patience they possess at the plate prevents the opposing pitcher from throwing a lot of pitches, which bodes well for teams like the Marlins who lack ideal bullpens. It also compliments pitchers like Olsen who picks apart hitters that swing at his slider that rarely is in the strike zone.
 

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Brewers @ Cardinals
Play: Cardinals +106
Intrinsic Value: -116
Consider Betting Price: -103
Comment:

I am well aware of the problems the Cardinals have been having at the plate. I am also well aware of how dominant of a pitcher Sheets has been. However, I feel that this may be a good spot for a reversal of both, yet it is not factored in the market price. Sheets is actually coming off a start in which he was very hittable. He is much more prone to struggle against veteran lineups that have patience at the plate and are less likely to chase his curve out of the zone. This is the type of lineup he will be up against today, and it is no surprise some of the Cardinals hitters have had past success against him. This also may be a spot in which Puljos finally gets things going, as he more than anyone, has proven capable of hitting Sheets in the past. Although the Cardinals have looked awful at the plate of late, they have performed well during the day games this year, which is a trend that seems to be carry from last year. Even Albert has hit well in this situation (also a trend continuing from last year). Sheets has not been as effective in his career on the road, and has yet to pitch a road game this season.

I am not sure why Looper has not been getting much credit this year, but he has been flat out dominant in the starting role. His stuff looks unhittable, and his command has been exceptional. He has been equally as hard for left handers and right handers, and put forth a seven inning two hit shutout in his only day game of the season. A situational trend of pitching better during day games and home games is also working in Looper’s favor. He has had success against the Brewers in the past, and his style of pitching matches up well against the Brewers style of hitting. Although the Brewers have won their last three road games, they have never been as dangerous on the road, and have scored more than three runs in just one of their last four games. Although the Cardinals bullpen is not as talented as it was in past years, they have four pitchers that have been solid on the mound this season, including three that have yet to give up a run.
 

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Reds @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -150
Intrinsic Value: -176
Consider Betting Price: -158
Comment:

I am going right back on the Cubs for the third straight day, and have no problem doing such, as once they are able to play to form for a prolonged period of time, they are a type of team whose value will quickly go away. The are coming off an impressive win, where both their bats and pitchers put forth dominant performances. This is a spot for them to do such again. Lilly downright dominated the Reds in his first start of the season, where he allowed just three hits in seven innings of work. He has a good chance to put forth another solid outing, as he poses a difficult challenge for this lineup. Lilly has always been a pitcher that has eaten up left handed bats, which does not bode well for a lineup whose power comes from the left side. The Reds posses one of the most overrated and worst lineups in baseball, especially on the road and against left handed pitching. They have struggled in both spots this year, including getting worked by a southpaw on Friday. Lilly is backed by a solid bullpen that has been pitching well of late and has had no problem getting Reds hitters out.

Lohse allowed ten hits to the Cubs in his first start against them this year, and put forth a horrible outing in his only start against them last year. Lohse has been manhandled throughout his career against left handed bats, and the addition of Floyd and replacement of Ramirez will allow the Cubs to put out a balanced lineup from the left side. This does not bode well for Lohse’s chances, as right handed hitters, Derossa (if he plays), Lee and Soriano come into today’s game a combined 17 for 30 against him. The Reds bullpen is one of the worst in baseball and finally showed some regression during Saturdays game. Even with the injury to Ramirez, the Cubs still have one of the best lineups in the NL.
 

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Padres @ Dodgers
Play: Padres -112
Intrinsic Value: -167
Consider Betting Price: -146
Comment:

When Young was pitching for Texas, he was consistently putting forth dominant starts on the road and was getting raked at home. Being a notorious fly ball pitcher, people claimed that his home woes were a product of the Rangers ballpark and not his mental state. They claimed his home woes would quickly go away now when he went to the Padres as the biggest park in the game will compliment his fly ball style of pitching. However, since joining the Padres, Young continued to be one of the most dominant road pitchers in the league, yet continued to struggle at home. Young consistently comes with some of the best value on the road, including tonight game. His unorthodox style of pitching and frame has given the Dodgers problems in the past, as he had the upper hand in all five of his starts against them, and got all five decisions. Dodgers batters are hitting just .154 against him in over 30 innings of work. He has dominated a few of the Dodgers hitters, including Furcal and Pierre, who are a combined 3 for 24 against him, which is key, as he is an easy pitcher to steal off of. Being backed by the hottest and one of the best bullpens in baseball should make it hard for the Dodgers to score runs throughout this game.

Although Wolf is off to an impressive start, he will more than likely never be the pitcher he once was. He has never had success in the past against the Padres, and although he could be overpowering on left handed hitters, he is not nearly as difficult for left handed bats as he once was. Although the Padres talent mostly comes from the left side, expect them to counter Wolf by putting some right handed hitters that have had past success against him including Cruz. He has never been the type to go deep into games, and is backed by a bullpen that had to pitch seven innings yesterday. The Padres are not the most potent lineup in the league, but one of the few that hit better on the road. They are also a streaky lineup that may have broken out of a mini slump Saturday night.
 

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Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -148
Intrinsic Value: -170
Consider Betting Price: -154
Comment:

Davis comes into today’s game sporting a 1.64 ERA even though he has not had nearly the stuff he is capable of having on the mound. He has done a good job out of the stretch and getting himself out of jams. In his first game against the Rockies, he allowed 13 base runners in just five innings of work, yet did not allow a run. The Rockies young lineup has not had success against him in the past, as they lack the ideal patience at the plate to force Davis to come into the strike zone. Davis has always performed better at home for other teams, and curtails the power of left handed bats, which is good when pitching in this park. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been pitching surprisingly well so far this season. The Rockies have a dangerous lineup, but have never been that good of a lineup during their road games.

This isn’t a good spot for Kim to make his first start of the season. His style of pitching opens things up for left handed hitters, something in which the Diamondbacks will probably put five of in the lineup in today’s game. Kim just isn’t as effective as he once was, seems to really struggle on the road, and is easier to pick up during the day. He has struggled throughout his career against the Diamondbacks, and a few of their hitters have dominated him in the limited at bats they have gotten to see him. The Rockies bullpen is not as solid as it was last year, and have a real problem holding onto the lead prior to the 9th. The Dbacks are a young team that thrives off confidence, something that they are building a lot of early in the season.
 

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Yankees @ A’s
Play: A’s -105
Intrinsic Value: -141
Consider Betting Price: -127
Comment:

The A’s got a much needed confidence boost by showing that they could hang with the Yankees the last two nights. The Yankees showed that the A’s pitchers can get the upper hand on their lineup, and that they might be missing Matsui more than people originally thought. This will actually be the Yankees toughest challenge, as they now have to face the best pitcher on the A’s in Harden. Harden has already shown this year why he is going to be a top three pitcher in baseball for many years to come. He has allowed just two runs in his first two starts, and his ability to mix a nasty slider and change up with his fastball makes him hard to hit for both right and left handed hitters, which should curtail the balance effect the Yankees lineup brings to the table. Although he doesn’t have impressive numbers against the Yankees in the past, a lot of those poor numbers were accumulated when he was pitching with an injury that put him on the DL for a while. He has always been much more dominant at home, where he has put forth a career 3.11 ERA. He is backed by an elite bullpen that has shown they could handle the Yankees bats in the first two games of this series. With Pasada catching two extra inning games in a row, its hard to imagine him behind home plate in this game.

For some reason, Pettite has never been a good road pitcher. Being a finesse pitcher, he needs to establish a comfort level on the mound, something that he has never really proved capable of doing away from home. Over the years, he has produced a road ERA nearly a run higher than his home ERA. He is also a pitcher that is more comfortable pitching against hitters that he has a past history against, which will only be the case for a couple of hitters in today’s lineup, which includes Stewart, who has owned him throughout his career. Backing Pettite is an overworked bullpen that is vulnerable prior to Rivera. If the Yankees can’t get to Harden, the A’s have a good chance of avoiding him. The A’s have always been a team that have hit better during the day, and are better suited facing southpaws.
 

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Giants @ Pirates Game 2
Play: Pirates +130 Game 2
Intrinsic Value: +101
Consider Betting Price: +122
Comment:

The Pirates team is much better built for playing double headers than the Giants. The Giants team possesses a bunch of over aged veteran players that will more than likely will only play one of these games. Their bench is not terribly talented, which should force them to put a watered down lineup in one of these games. This is not something you want with a lineup that has been really struggling at the plate, as scoring runs will only be more difficult. The Pirates are a much younger team whose better starters will play both games, while they have a deeper bench that could relieve some of their role players. I am not a fan of betting against Cain. He is downright dominant. But at the right price, I will bet against any pitcher in the league. I am also not getting carried away with Cain’s fast start. Last year he struggled out of the gates, and possibly the only reason he hasn’t this year is the fact that he got to pitch against his favorite team to pitch against in both his first two starts. He has never been as effective on the road, which is something that may materialize, as he has never pitched in this park before. The Pirates bats have been dormant, but they can hit the fastball, something that they will see a lot of in this game. Cain struggled in his only start against the Pirates last year, and is backed by an anemic bullpen that will more than likely have worked a few innings today leading up to this game.

I am not that excited about betting on Armas, but at the right price, I will bet on any pitcher as well. Pitching against a watered down lineup might be exactly what he needs, as he has been really hittable the last couple of years. He has the pitching arsenal to still be an effective pitcher, but he just has to find his command and confidence. He has always been a much more confident pitcher pitching at home, something that will still probably work in his favor pitching for a new team. He could still overpower any right hander in the league, but is vulnerable against left handed bats. Being that Bonds will sit out one of these games, and was planning to sit out yesterday against Armas to hit against Snell on Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sit out game two. This improves Armas’s chances a lot, as the Giants lack power on the left side outside of Bonds. He is also backed by a deeper and more talented bullpen than his counterparts.
 

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Rangers @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -102
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I think that Ramirez has a good chance of resurrecting his career pitching in the AL West and inside a spacious park. I like his chances of starting off on the right foot in today’s game, as he is up against an overrated lineup that he matches up well against. Ramirez is a southpaw that can overwhelm left handed power hitters with his arsenal of pitches, something that will work in his favor today against the Rangers lineup whose power is mainly derived from the left side. The Rangers, much like most power hitting teams, are off to a slow start this year. They have never been nearly as an effective lineup on the road, and this year is no exception, as their bats have been downright dormant on the road this year, as the come into today’s game with a sub .200 batting average against southpaws. Their power has also been neutralized against left handed pitching, having just two home runs against them this year.

McCarthy is a young pitcher with some upside potential, but probably not the potential most were thinking a couple of years back. His command seems to disappear games at a time, and is prone to the long ball. He is not terribly effective against right handed hitters either, and has the propensity to leave the ball up against them, which is not something you want against a Mariners team that likes the ball up. He has been prone to start off seasons slow in the past, and is backed by a front end bullpen that is not terribly talented. The Mariners bats finally came alive in yesterday’s game, and might have finally shaken off the rust of the prolonged waiting period.
 

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Devil Rays @ Twins
Play: Twins -161
Intrinsic Value: -177
Consider Betting Price: -161
Comment:
Last start was the first start in which Bonser allowed more than three runs in a game in 12 starts. I like his chances of bouncing back, as he is now faced with a lineup that is better suited for his pitching style. He is good at changing speeds and could be a problem for a young lineup that lacks patience at the plate. It is no surprise that he dominated the Devil Rays in this only start against them last year. He has great command, and has a good chance of out finessing a team that is hard to overpower. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball is always nice as well.

He should also get a lot of run support in this game as well. Seo just isn’t the same pitcher he once was. He looked lost on the mound in both his first two starts, and was extremely hittable, already allowing 19 hits in just nine innings of work. He has been getting dominated by both right handers and left handers, which bodes well for a lineup that is well balanced like the Twins. He had struggled against the Twins in the past when he was a better pitcher, while the Twins are gaining confidence at the plate right now, and are coming off their best offensive showing of the season. Backing Seo is a horrible bullpen which the Twins have already smacked around in this series. This should allow their lineup to score runs throughout this game.
 

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Awesome job going 3-0 yesterday Buff!

Looks like Giants-Pirates games are PPD but good luck on the rest.
 

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Keep up the great work BG. BOL on your plays today. I'm against you on the Braves and Brew Crew, but with you on San Diego, Oakland and Minnesota. Was very close to pulling the trigger on the Cubs so I think I'll go through with it now. Will likely also follow you on the rest. As always, thanks for posting.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Thanks, BG, at this rate you'll more than make up for the losses I incurred following random people in basketball this season, lol.
 

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