Jibba's Sun MLB

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

Favorites: 19-2 for +16.79 units
Underdogs: 4-1 for +4.13 units
Total: 23-3 for +20.92 units

I hit +20 units yesterday. And I'm proud to say I've done it without playing a game for more than 1.5 units. None of these ridiculous 10 unit games to try to pad my record. As if I'd ever bet 10 times my standard unit on one single game . . . anyway, it's only +20 units and it could be gone before I know it. But thanks to all the solid cappers who I've learned from along the way.

Posted two plays last night here. Turns out I didn't need to get them in quick as they never moved over night, but I'll still do writeups.

Minnesota -160: The Twins' bats came alive yesterday and they are looking to lock up a series win with a win against another bad TB pitcher. Boof Bonser isn't a great SP, but he's got solid stuff and should be able to put away this D-Rays offense at home. We all know how bad TB is on the road, and with Seo pitching, this one should be closer to 2-1 IMO. May add half a unit as the day goes on.

Oakland -107: I just don't think we'll get this many chances to take Harden at almost even money at home this year, even against the dreaded Yankees lineup. Harden has always been a solid home starter and I know the A's would love a win today to take the series. I haven't given Pettitte much credit this year, and I'm going to continue that trend until he really shows me he still has it. 4 IPs and 2 ERs against TB aren't going to cut it. His 6 solid innings in Minnesota were impressive, but not enough for me to consider him the play in this spot.

Will be adding more in the next couple minutes.

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

Forgot to add, yesterday's record was 7-0 with 6 favorites and 1 dog.

Detroit -113: I don't think the public views Robertson as the quality starter he is. I think they see Detroit's lineup as Bonderman, Verlander, and hope for rain. But this kid can pitch and he's been showing it this year. Shutting down the Orioles in Camden isn't an easy task but that's what he did in his last start, giving up only 4 hits while striking out 5 against 1 walk. Also, he was solid on the road last year, putting up better numbers than he did at home.

On the other side, Robertson faces up against Josh Towers, who was whacked around by the Royals in his only appearance thus far. While Toronto generally plays better at home, the same can't be said for Towers. I'm sorry, but going 0-4 in 5 starts at home, with an 8.59 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP is enough reason to fade him at these odds. And with Detroit playing solid on the road so far this year, I like the Tigers to take the series win today.

THEMASK · Apr 15, 2007

man you really are on fire 23-3 lol..i'm on twins too ..gl

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

Cleveland -156: CC has owned the Chi-Sox throughout his career (13-3, 3.86 ERA) and continued the trend last year, going 4-0 in 6 starts with a 2.23 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a .203 BAA with 37 Ks against 12 BBs. He's also looked pretty decent in his first two starts. Yeah he gave up 8 hits in the opener and then 10 in his last start, but that was while picking up yet another win against these Whitesox in Chicago and then against Vlad and the Angels. But he still only let up 4 ERs in those two games.

On the other side, we have Contreras, who the Indians knocked around for 7 ERs in one inning in the opener. Also factor in that Contreras's past success on the road started to fade last year. I just think the Tribe's offense will be too much for him again. 1.56 units to win 1.

slad · Apr 15, 2007

I like Minn and Detroit too. What are your thoughts on San Diego?

Best of luck to you today.

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

Milwaukee -105: Braden Looper goes into his 3rd career start today in his 8 full seasons. And the public loves him. But he hasn't shown enough to be even money with Ben Sheets in my eyes. Maybe I'm too high on Sheets . . . who knows? But we may find out today as he gets a tough challenge against a Cardinals team that badly wants its first home win. But there's a reason why this team is winless at home. They're flat out not playing good ball and I can't back them playing the way they are when they have a pitcher like Sheets to contend with today. 1.05 units to win 1.

So far, I also have a lean on Atlanta and a few other teams. I'm going to go look them over, especially this Braves game. A couple very solid cappers see value on the Marlins, but Hudson dominates this team IIRC and he is the Braves' stopper.

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

slad said:
I like Minn and Detroit too. What are your thoughts on San Diego?

Best of luck to you today.

Thanks and BOL to you as well slad. I am about 90% sure I'll be on the Padres. In fact, you'll probably see my writeup on that one within the next 10 minutes or so.

THEMASK · Apr 15, 2007

good to see you are on clev and minny two of my picks ..

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

San Diego -109: Does the public understand how nasty Chris Young is yet? This line tells me they do not. As I'm sure many have pointed out here on the Rx, Young was 6-0 in 15 road starts last year, with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a .176 BAA (against 4.60, 1.27, .238 in 16 starts at home). In 5 starts against the Dodgers, Young put up a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a .154 BAA. Unfortunately that never translated into a win as he went 0-1 on the year against the Dodgers. But that changes today IMO.

Wolf, who gets his first home start today, was certainly better at home last year. But a 4.82 home ERA and a 1.50 home WHIP aren't the slightest bit scary. It's actually just what this San Diego offense needs to get their young stud SP another road win. The Padres' bats finally got going yesterday and I think they can keep it going into today. 1.09 units to win 1.

hiphop22 · Apr 15, 2007

I really like the card. Have all, but I'm also considering a play on the Rangers.

hiphop22 · Apr 15, 2007

Jibba said:
San Diego -109.

You forgot to add that the Dodgers suck. Peavy is a great pitcher, and I'll remember him later in the year, but Dodgers do not appear to be hitting the ball very well.

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

hiphop22 said:
You forgot to add that the Dodgers suck. Peavy is a great pitcher, and I'll remember him later in the year, but Dodgers do not appear to be hitting the ball very well.

Good point. They're really not looking like a solid team, although I'm sure the public just sees the 7-4 record and thinks everything is dandy in La La Land.

As for the Rangers, I wasn't sure which way to go with that one. After reading Buffettgambler's post on the game though, I'll be following him with Seattle. BOL.

hiphop22 · Apr 15, 2007

Jibba said:
Good point. They're really not looking like a solid team, although I'm sure the public just sees the 7-4 record and thinks everything is dandy in La La Land.

As for the Rangers, I wasn't sure which way to go with that one. After reading Buffettgambler's post on the game though, I'll be following him with Seattle. BOL.

Yes, that pretty much makes it a no play for me.

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

Atlanta -16: Lots of people on Florida today, but I just see the value on the other side. I really like the Marlins this year, but I just see this as a horrible spot for them. Hudson is the Braves stopper, and they need a stop today at home. Hudson has always pitched better at home. And he's flat out owned Florida. In 7 career starts against them, he's 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a .222 BAA. Add that to the fact that Hudson has been unhittable in his first two starts, and I think we start to see how good this spot is. Florida's offense is also very young. While I think they have an incredibly bright future, I don't think there's any bright spot for them in going up against a solid veteran like Hudson.

Scott Olsen, on the other hand, is a very solid young starter but he's no Hudson. I picked him yesterday and certainly have faith in him, but I think the rainout took him from a solid spot to a very tough one. Add to this that he's pitched very poorly in the past against Atlanta (1-2 in 3 starts with a 9.49 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and a .292 BAA) and I just don't see all the value that many other cappers do. 1.65 units to win 1.

I'm also adding a half unit each on Oakland -107 and Minnesota -167. I'll be back in a few minutes to cap it all off.

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

Total card, at least for now:

Minnesota: 2.44 units to win 1.5.
Oakland: 1.6 units to win 1.5.
Detroit: 1.7 units to win 1.5 (adding one half unit).
Cleveland: 1.56 units to win 1.
Milwaukee: 1.04 units to win 1.
San Diego: 1.09 units to win 1.
Atlanta: 1.65 units to win 1.

All favorites as of right now and it will likely stay that way. Card never feels quite right without a dog, but as I've said all season, I have to go where I see value. Thinking of adding a half unit to 1 or 2 of these so I'll update if I do. I'm also following Buffettgambler on Arizona, Chicago (NL), and Seattle. Liked the first two originally, but couldn't get enough of a feel to make them plays on my own. Last one just makes sense after reading his writeup. BOL to everyone on today's card.

Jibba · Apr 15, 2007

Adding a half a unit on San Diego -112. Total of 1.65 to win 1.5. So far on the day I lost Detroit and likely Milwaukee. Have won Atlanta and Cleveland, am winning Oakland early and am watching this Twins game intensely. Including the Brewers game as a loss, I'm 2-2 on the day down .74 units I believe. Favorites may be catching up to me. We'll see how the night goes. BOL to everyone.

Edit: Just saw TB put two up in the 9th and are still up. That'll hurt and probably lock up my first losing day. Still a very good weekend though.

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