Bookie Buster Service Plays, SDS (REVISED) Spreadsheets

Attached are dramatically revised spreadsheets. Briefly, here’s what has occurred:
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I separated the services plays into categories of “paid” or “premium” plays and “free” or “comp” plays. Each category is now individually tracked and has its own win / loss records. "Free" or "comp" plays are always labeled as “free”.
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I have also labeled some service plays according to their “unit sizes” or “unit ranges”. I only did this for services that consistently use the same unit sizes or or service play descriptions.
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The result has been a dramatic revelation in terms of which plays may be worthy of a “tail” and which plays may be worthy of a “fade”.
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Enjoy!

Service Play Spreadsheet:

Service Play "FADE" Spreadsheet:

Ethan Law

CLEVELAND INDIANS (run-line)

Hondo

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Marlins

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

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NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (6-4) at St. Louis (5-5)
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (5-5) at Cleveland (5-3)
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER

Larry Ness

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(**TV Game of the Week**)
15* San Diego Padres

LT Profits

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Detroit Tigers (-110)

Mighty ! Quinn

Today it's the Cubs

Brandon Lang

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10 DIME
MLB:
Detroit Tigers
Oakland A's
NBA:
Toronto Raptors

Billy Coleman

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4* Detroit w/Robertson
3* Ariz/Col Lopez/Davis under 9
4* Minn/Anaheim under 5


CappersAccess<o></o>

Milwaukee Brewers
LA Dodgers


Billy Coleman

4* Det w/Robertson
3* Ariz/Col Lopez/Davis under 9

Karl Garrett

40 DIMER - MILWAUKEE BREWER WITH SHEETS
Milwaukee was able to snap St. Louis' 4-game winning streak with a 3-2 win last night. That has been the Brewers MO, as they are getting just enough hitting while their pitching - both starting and relieving - has been superb.
I like the Brewers again today as Ben Sheets is finally healthy, and although he is coming off a horrendous start against the Cubs, I expect him to bounce back with a solid effort on Sunday.
Braden Looper has looked surprisingly good in his first stint as a starter, working 13 innings of 3 run ball for a 1-1 mark. The problem for the Cardinals is their hitting has yet to really get rolling, and with Sheets owning the stuff to hold them at bay again, I will lay the small road juice and go with the Brewers to take this one.

20 DIMER - DETROIT TIGERS WITH ROBERTSON
Too much respect for Toronto, and not enough for the defending American League champs, as Detroit battled back strong yesterday in their thrilling 10-7 win. BJ Ryan has to be a little shaken after his pathetic 9th inning yesterday, so I don't put much trust in the Toronto pen should it come down to it today.
Robertson has already bested the Jays once this April, working 6 innings of 2-run ball. The southpaw is off to a nice 2-0 start, and I think he will be able to fool the Toronto batters once again today.
Towers will counter off a loss to Kansas City, as he allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings of work. I like the way Detroit is getting the timely hits, so I say to ride the Motown Kitties one more time today at the Rogers Centre.

10 DIMER - SAN DIEGO PADRES WITH YOUNG
After a Friday night loss to the Dodgers, the Padres were right back at it at Dodger Stadium on Saturday night, as last night's win makes it 8-3 at Chavez Ravine since last season, and 14-6 overall the last 20 games against the Dodgers.
Chris Young just doesn't lose on the road, and so far this season he just doesn't lose, as the lanky righty is off to a 1-0 start allowing just 3 runs in 13 innings of work. Young is 9-0 with 16 no decisions his last 25 on the road, and his ERA is a scant 2.41!
Last season Young went 0-1 in his 5 starts against LA, but he only allowed 9 earned runs in 31 innings of work!
I expect the Padres to do some more damage to the Dodgers on your Sunday night ESPN game
Take the Pads here.

Kelso

5 units Toronto -12.5 v. Knicks
3 units Chic/Wash under 193

Chris Jordan

500? BRAVES (LIST Hudson and Olsen) - Tim Hudson is your play in this one, as he's been stunning against the Marlins – including four starts last year. He is 3-0 in his last five against the Marlins, yielding six unearned runs over 34 innings of work. And he's come into this season with a solid showing after just two starts, shutting down Philly for just one unearned run in seven innings and tossing seven scoreless innings at home against Washington. Scott Olsen has been decent for the Marlins, yes, but he's 1-2 in his last three against the Braves, having given up 13 earned runs over 13 innings.

100? TIGERS (LIST Robertson and Towers) - Nate Robertson is the choice here, as he's been strong to start the season, giving up just two unearned runs in 13 innings against Baltimore and these Blue Jays. He's now 2-1 in his last four starts against Toronto. In tossing out the loss, he's given up just nine earned runs over 18 innings of work. Detroit is now 7-3 on the season, with six of those wins coming on the highway. Look for it to wrap up this series with a win North of the border.

COMPS

Jose Contreras didn't much to impress anyone in his season debut – against the Tribe and Sabathia – but he came back strong at Oakland with a quality start that produced just one earned run in six innings.
Chicago has won two of its last three now, and will be looking for a huge outing against CC Sabathia, who incidentally, is 4-0 in his last five starts against the South Siders.
Today I am banking they send him to his first defeat against them in six starts.

1? CHICAGO

FPBE Free Picks

Marc Lawrence - DET -110 MLB
Ben Burns - MIN -170 MLB
Larry Ness - STL +105 MLB

Power Play of the Day

Yesterday.....Rain Out

Today..............Detroit..-115

Gamblers Choice

2 units S.F. -35 GAME 2 W/ CAIN

Trev Rogers

Yankees vs. A's Over 8.5

Sebastian


10* detroit
10* san francisco gm 1 zito listed
10* texas
10* kansas city
10* kansas city/baltimore under
10* san diego

Sunday Comps

Computer Boys-Detroit Tigers
Screw Feiner-OVER Tampa Bay

Ben Burns' Early Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT *9-3 L12

Guaranteed Pick: Ben Burns
Game: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians Apr 15 2007 1:05PM
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Reason: I'm laying the price with CLEVELAND. The Indians took yesterday's game and I expect them to have several advantages for this afternoon's series finale. Sabathia and Contreras faced each other on Opening Day. Sabathia was solid while Contreras was awful, allowing eight runs and seven hits in just one inning. The Indians would eventually win 12-5 with Sabathia improving to 13-3 (3.68 ERA) against the White Sox for his career. Thanks to that rough outing, Contreras enters today's game with an ugly 10.29 ERA and 2.286 WHIP. The Sox have been getting decent pitching from their bullpen. For the season, Chicago relievers have a respectable road ERA of 3.46. However, that pales in comparison to the Indians' bullpen numbers. Indeed, through 14 2/3 innings here, Cleveland relievers have a stellar 2.45 home ERA. The Indians, who should have Victor Martinez available at DH, also figure to have the edge in the hitting department. Cleveland is averaging a whopping seven runs per game against right-handed starters while hitting .315 with an on-base-percentage of 0.411. Conversely, the White Sox are averaging just 3.4 runs on the road this season while hitting a mere 0.227. Dating back to last September, the Indians are 9-3 their last 12 home games. Behind another quality effort from Sabathia, look for them to improve to 7-2 the last nine times they were a host in this series.


F@rgo - Bonus Play

PICK: San Francisco Giants
REASON FOR PICK: ***Game One*** Rain postponed this one Saturday and while the pitching matchup has changed, the play is still on Barry Zito in Game One of this doubleheader. The Giants were able to rid the losing streak against the Pirates as they snapped a six-game skid on Friday against Pittsburgh in rather easy fashion. They now send their record-breaking contract signee Zito to the hill to try and pick up his first win. He struggled mightily in his last outing against the Dodgers as his career in April continues to be horrid. He catches a break here though.
Zito brings in an 8.18 ERA but the Pirates are the perfect candidate to reverse the rough start. He has never faced Pittsburgh and that is always an advantage for the pitcher especially when switching over to the National League. Pittsburgh has yet to win this season at home after losing game one in this series and getting swept by the Cardinals in the series prior to that. The Pirates scored just four runs in that series and they are now batting .195 with runners in scoring position and .230 on the season.
Tony Armas was the original pitcher to go against Zito but the Pirates caught a break and get to send Ian Snell in the first game to go against Zito. This kid has a lot of potential and he has been a tough luck pitcher so far this season as he has posted a 2.08 ERA but has yet to get a win. The problem has been run support as he has gotten only three runs total in his two starts. No pitcher can survive that. He shutout the Cardinals at home but we have seen that the Cardinals are struggling offensively and he has a career 5.16 ERA at PNC Park.
Going on the road takes the pressure off Zito and he has had a lot of success when traveling. He is 13-5 against the money line in road games over the last two seasons. Playing a team with a losing record doesn’t hurt as he is 36-9 against the money line when playing against a bad team. The Pirates have not fared well against left-handed starters as they are 15-36 against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Look for the Giants to get it done again and for Zito to get into the win column. Play San Francisco Giants 1 Unit

RAYMOND
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Brewers (B Sheets) vs Cardinals (B Looper) 04/15 at 02:15 pm Cardinals +105
Tigers (Robertson) vs Blue Jays (J Towers) 04/15 at 01:05 pm Tigers -110
White Sox (J Contreas) vs Indians (C Sabathia) 04/15 at 01:05 pm Indians -1.5 +135

More Service Plays from BB:

More Service Plays from Bookie Buster:

Stan Sharp

Double Dime Play: Arizona

Analysis: Today all 3 of Stan's TOP BASEBALL BETTORS have made a BIG WAGER on the ARIZONA. Stan's contacts all agree that today's Pitching Match up is a mismatch. Stan cashed with Arizona yesterday and will do so again today. Arizona will take the rubber game of the series with a BIG Home Win. TAKE ARIZONA as STAN'S BASEBALL BLOWOUT BIG BET OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY. Note Stan is 37-22 ATS with his last 59 Plays and 4-0 in Baseball this week!!

Big Al (shoots for his 7th Straight MLB Winner)

At 1:35 pm our selection is on the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles 'under' the total. The Orioles spent a lot of money during the offseason on middle relief pitching, many names which, unless you follow the O's or have a fantasy team, you may not know. It seemed that for most of 2006, Baltimore's only reliable arm coming out of the bullpen was closer Chris Ray, but of course the rest of its relief pitching blew so many leads that the O's didn't get to use Ray that often. So far, the off-season strategy has worked for Baltimore as its relief ERA for 2007 is 3.72, which is about half of what it was last year. And keep in mind that a good chunk of that 3.72 is the walk off grand slam given up by Ray at the hands of the Yankees and Alex Rodriguez. Neither of these teams has produced much offense and even though the O's managed 8 runs the other night, that was in large part due to another grand salami, and until Markakis hit that one, the game had been a low scoring snoozer, which has been somewhat the norm this year for them. Zach Greinke may be one of the best young pitchers that nobody's talking about and he has two very good starts to prove it. In his first start, he was brilliant in defeat against the Red Sox, but nobody noticed that one at all because it happened to be Dice-K's Major League debut. These two teams have a combined batting average of around .232. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other 2 super winners today on National TV in the NBA and Baseball

ATS Financial

3 units on the Kansas City Royals (-110) over the Baltimore Orioles, 1:30
3 units on the Texas Rangers (-110) over the Seattle Mariners, 4:00

Bob Balfe

Dodgers +110 over Padres (Wolf/Young)

Dr. Ringo

3* Arizona
2* Detroit
1* Milwaukee

Randall the Handle (RTH)

Detroit –1.07 over Toronto

It’s Josh Towers time again for the Blue Jays and what that means is they have nobody else to take his spot in the rotation otherwise that person would be penciled in here. Towers opened the year right where he left off last season, that being with another loss and another ineffective start. What’s even more troublesome is that he was blasted by the Royals (10 hits and six runs in 5.1 innings); a squad that’s scored a total of 36 runs in 12 games, by far the league’s worst run production. Now Towers is being asked to face the potent line-up of the Tigers after getting smoked in his first start and coming off a year in which he went 2-10 with an 8.42 ERA. His confidence is shattered and the truth of the matter is he’s had one good year out of seven in the majors and that came in 2005. Josh Towers is batting practice and the Tigers will tee off against him just like every other team has done against Towers over the past seven seasons. Incidentally, the Tigers have won six of nine on the road and Nate Robertson is only 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. This is a cheap lay on a complete pitching mismatch. Play: Detroit –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Kansas City –1.01 over Baltimore

A couple of things worth noting here with the first one being that like most Sunday’s this is a day game after a night game and the Orioles will have a few second-stringers in the line-up today. Some will argue that the same can be said for the Royals but that’s not true because K.C. has lost the first three games of this series and thus, the Orioles can afford to rest a few bodies. Secondly, Zack Greinke will go for the Royals and what you’re going to get from Grienke is a typical strong start in which he’ll throw strikes, keep the hitters off balance all game and he’ll do it almost effortlessly. Zack Greinke is one of baseball’s best-kept secrets. For the Orioles it’ll be Jeremy Guthrie making his second major league start ever after making one start last season in nine appearances in a Tribe’s uniform. Guthrie has never been able to stay up in the big leagues, as he’s been up and down for the better part of the last three years. His biggest problem is his control, or lack thereof, as he’s walked 24 batters in 42 frames. In his one start he walked six batters in 5.2 innings. Guthrie is getting this start not because he earned it but because Jaret Wright went on the DL and the O’s needed a fill-in. Play: Kansas City –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

Minnesota –1½ +1.25 over Tampa Bay

Boof Bonser can pitch and while his numbers don’t look great we can’t put too much weight on it because the Yankees torched him in his second start of the year. In Bonser’s first start he was brilliant against the Orioles and that’s the Boof Bonser we fully expect to see here. However, that’s not what this choice is all about. You see, Jae Seo will start for the Devil Rays and Sao has one foot in the gutter, meaning his major league days are numbered. He came into camp out of shape and for a guy that’s never been that effective to begin with that spells disaster. In two starts covering just 9.1 innings, Sao has surrendered 19 hits, three jacks, 15 runs and a 9.42 ERA after the opposition hit .422 off him. The Twins hung a 12 on the Devil Rays yesterday and a similar result is very likely today. Play: Minnesota –1½ +1.25 (Risking 2 units).

GridIron (FREE Picks)

Take Detroit (Robertson) -110 at Toronto (Towers)
Take Kansas City (Greinke) -110 at Baltimore (Guthrie)
Take San Diego (Young) -115 at LA Dodgers (Wolf)

Beating the Book

Take Kansas City -105 @ Baltimore

The Fishman

5 unit Det
4 unit Arz
3 unit under 8 LA/SD

Charlie

Oakland-110 (10*)
Detroit-110 (10*) Bonus Play

(Note from sds23: Charlie’s Bonus Plays have been SMOKING HOT! I know this game already started...but keep an eye on Charlie's Bonus Plays.)

Accupicks

3* Toronto
3* Texas

Fixerwins

2* NYY
2* San Diego

Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan

Game: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 15 2007 4:40PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER Colorado/Arizona - AiS shows an 85% probability that there will be 10 or more runs scored in this game and a 58% probability that one of these teams may score the posted total of 9 on their own merit. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 54-25 OVER since 1997. Play over with all teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 marginal losing team from last season (46% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record, after a loss. ARIZONA is 95-63 OVER (+25.3 Units) in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game since 1997. ARIZONA is 44-28 OVER (+13.3 Units) after 2 straight games without a stolen base over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 70-42 OVER (+23.5 Units) in home games in April games since 1997. LOPEZ is 1-2 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.432. Arizona has batted 282 with an OPS of 766 against Lopez in their respective careers. Doug Davis has allowed a BA of 302 and OPS of 826 against the current members of the Rockies in their respective careers.

Russ Culver

Sides
Marlins +160
Giants Game #2 -137
Rockies +142
Devil Rays +160
A's -112

Totals
SF-Pittsburgh Game #1 UNDER 8 -115 (Zito-Snell

Curry Bagwell

San Diego -115

6'10" Padre RH Young is going to look pretty intimidating pitching in the twilight shadows with the 5:00 start in L.A. Padre line up appears to be the type of line up that sprays the ball all around the park and that is not the type of line up that Dodger lefty Wolf will be successful against.

Milwaukee -110

Cardinals have scored over 3 runs only twice this year. Their 4-5 hitters are not hitting and can't catch up with the type of stuff Brewer RH Sheets has. Pujols is paying the price for this. Brewers match up well with Cards RH Looper.

Oakland -110

A's RH Harden is capable of pitching a shutout anytime. He is the dominant starter over Yankee's LH Petitte. Both bullpens are worn thin after two consecutive extra inning games. A's not only have the better pen, but also the deeper pen. Yankee closer Rivera status questionable.


Vegassi Consensus Plays

10* MLB Dodgers +105
10* MLB Florida under 8.5
10* MLB Oakland -110

SUNDAY PICKS

SUNDAY PICKS (CAMPONE)
WISEGUY ACTION: 10* MLB Seattle under 9
WISEGUY ACTION: MLB Texas under 9

SUNDAY PICKS (CALLAHAN)
15* MLB Colorado +140
15* MLB San Diego -110
15* MLB Seattle under 9

SUNDAY PICKS (SOUTH BEACH)
ZEBRA CLUB: 20* MLB Seattle -105
BIG ACTION: MLB Twins over 10
HILTON: MLB Pittsburgh under 8

SUNDAY PICKS (HOLLYWOOD)
INSIDE ACTION: 20* MLB Twins under 10
WISEGUY EDGE: MLB Pittsburgh under 8

SUNDAY PICKS (MICHIGAN)
BIG HOUSE: 20* MLB Baltimore over 9
LOCKERROOM: 10* MLB Reds +150
LOCKERROOM: 10* MLB Cleveland over 8.5

SUNDAY PICKS (NEW YORK)
DATA: MLB Twins under 10

SUNDAY PICKS (PIOLI)
VEGAS WISEGUY: 10* MLB Cubs under 7
LINE VALUE: 5* MLB St Louis under 8.5

SATURDAY PICKS (VIP ACTION)
VIP CLUB: 20* MLB St Louis under 8.5

Welcome To Insider Sports Report!

Premier Picks® For 04/15/07

4* Detroit (Robertson) -110 over Toronto (Towers)
Range +110 to -130
3* Colorado (Lopez)/Arizona (Davis) UNDER 9
Range 9.5 to 8,5
3* Seattle/L.A. Lakers (NBA) OVER 207
Range 205 to 209