Bookie Buster Service Plays, SDS Spreadsheets

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As some of you probably saw yesterday, the two spreadsheets have been revised to now track both “paid” or “confirmed” plays in addition to “free” or “comp” plays from the service plays that Bookie Buster provides each day. This has made a dramatic difference in terms of winning percentage for some of the services that are being tracked.
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A few quick notes:
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Stan Sharp has been hot, giving five winning days in a row (1~0 each day) which brings his overall tracked record to 7~1 (88%).
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Billy Coleman had won nine tracked plays in a row until yesterday, when he went 1~2, bringing his overall tracked record to 12~5 (71%).
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Power Play of the Day had provided five winners in a row before finally losing yesterday, bringing their record to 5~1 (83%).
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Links to the most recently updated spreadsheets will follow below.
 

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Link to the most recently updated spreadsheet:
 
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Link to the most recently updated "FADES" spreadsheet:
 
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Service Plays from BB:

Today's Service Plays from Bookie Buster:

LT Lock

Phillies-110


Boxer Sports

2* Cincinnati Reds
2* Florida Marlins
2* Los Angeles Dodgers

Paul Leiner


5* Astros
5* Devil Rays

Stan Sharp


Double Dime Play: Take the Mets
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Analysis: Today all 3 of Stan's TOP BASEBALL BETTORS have made a BIG WAGER on the N.Y. METS. Stan's contacts all agree that today's Pitching Match up favors the Mets John Maine who has pitched very well in his first 2 starts. The Mets will take the first game of this series. TAKE THE METS as STAN'S BASEBALL BIG BET OF THE DAY and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY. Note Stan is 38-22 ATS with his last 60 Plays and went 5-0 in Baseball last week!!

WunerDog


Game: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Pick: Game Total OVER 9 -110

Big Al


MLB San Francisco vs. Colorado
At 8:35 pm our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Francisco Giants. It could be a very long season for the Giants. Sure, their beloved outfielder, Barry Bonds, may very well break Hank Aaron's home run record sometime before September, but other than that, the highlights for this team in 2007 may be few and far between. With what are likely to be improved teams in Arizona, San Diego, and tonight's opponent, Colorado, it is certainly not out of the question that the Giants could wind up in the cellar of the NL West when all is said and done. It's not like the Giants haven't tried to stay competitive this year. They lost their best starter Jason Schmidt, but added one of the best lefthanders in baseball, a quality arm that was only a few miles away across the bay in Oakland -- Barry Zito. But so far this year, Zito has proven to be no Schmidt with an 0-2 record and a horrendous ERA of 8.18. His start to the 2007 campaign somewhat mirrors that of his team, and the Giants are looking like an old and tired ballclub so far. Perhaps the Giants should have gone after the Rockies' starter Jeff Francis, whose team is undefeated in his first two starts, while he has racked up a Schmidt-like ERA of 2.84. The Rockies dominated the Giants at home in 2006, taking 6 of 9 games played at Coors Field during the season.


Pick: Colorado

Dave Cokin


(957) FLA Marlins and (958) HOU Astros
Sanchez was dinged up in spring training and may not yet be 100% off what I've seen in the early going. Rodriguez was rock solid in his first start and has stellar April numbers.

Pick: Houston

Hondo

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Brewers

Benjamin Lee Eckstein


Angels (Santana)
Red Sox (Beckett)
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Kidz Korner


Milwaukee -115
Boston -1.5 +115
Kansas City +181

Randall Handle


Pick: Arizona +1.08

After a long and emotional day yesterday celebrating Jackie Robinson’s historic entry into the major’s to go along with a 9-3 victory over the Padres, the Dodgers can be caught off guard tonight. Even if they’re not, they’re still in a tough spot. Brad Penny has been brilliant with a 2-0 record and a 0.68 ERA, however, the numbers are much better then the way he’s actually pitched. He faced the Giants in the opener and allowed 10 hits and was extremely fortunate to allow just one run. He followed that up with a win over the Rockies in a game in which he walked four and struck out three in six innings. So, as you can see, the hitters are seeing the ball well off of Penny he’s just had some fortune early on. It’s also worth noting that he’s 12-18 on the road over the past three years with an ERA of 4.27. The Snakes have been very warm since the season started. They’re 9-4 and they’ll hand the ball over to Edgar Gonzalez. Gonzalez has given the D-Backs a chance to win in both of his starts and another good thing about him is that he throws strikes. He’s walked just three batters in 12 innings and over that same stretch he’s struck out 10. Play: Arizona +1.08 (Risking 2 units).

Pick NY Mets +1.00


Freddy Garcia went 17-9 last year with the White Sox but there were signs that he was starting to slide. His ERA was 4.54 and the opposition hit a healthy .267 off him. Garcia is coming off the DL, which makes him a step behind everyone else and it’s also worth noting that in his first start of the year last season he was completely torched. The Phillies are playing poorly and they’ll see John Maine here. The thing to note about Maine is that he was completely off his game in his last outing against these same Phillies walking a career-high six and giving up two runs and five hits before exiting after 4.2 innings. The Mets won that game because Philly couldn’t get to Maine despite his wildness. In Maine’s season debut he one-hit the Cardinals in seven innings. John Maine is a gamer, we like this guy, as he hates losing more then any pitcher in the bigs and we especially like him in this spot. Play: NY Mets +1.00 (Risking 2 units).


Cappers Access

NY Mets
SF Giants

Stan Sharp - Double Dime Play

953 NYM (-110) vs 954 PHI


SCOTTSPICKS:
Bonus Play: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5
Paid Play: UNDER 204.5 Atlanta/Milwaukee

Matt *****


Bonus Play: San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies


Rain has postponed Barry Zito’s start the last two days so we will go with him for the third time on Monday. The Giants head to Colorado and send their record-breaking contract signee Zito to the hill to try and pick up his first win. He struggled mightily in his last outing against the Dodgers as his career in April continues to be horrid. He faced Colorado once last season and pitched a gem, allowing one run in seven innings but did not receive the decision. The Rockies have now dropped four of five and six of eight. Going on the road takes the pressure off Zito and he has had a lot of success when traveling. He is 13-5 against the money line in road games over the last two seasons. Playing a team with a losing record doesn’t hurt as he is 36-9 against the money line when playing against a bad team. He faces off against Jeff Francis who has gotten off to a great start, posing a 2.84 ERA and Colorado winning both of his starts on the season. He is one of those rare Rockies pitchers who has actually fared well at Coors Field. However, he has not fared well against the Giants in his career, going 3-3 with a 5.47 ERA in nine starts. San Francisco is hitting .333 on the road against left-handed pitching and while the Rockies are outhitting that average at home, he is outclassed in this one. The Giants were not able to play in Pittsburgh on Sunday but that actually has a silver lining for this one as the travel was much more in their favor as they were able to arrive at a decent time as opposed to getting in late at night following the second game of a doubleheader. The recent bad play of Colorado sets up a great situation for San Francisco. Play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher off two straight road losses against a division rival with a losing record on the season. This situation is 40-22 against the moneyline (64.5 percent) over the last five seasons with the average run differential being close to +1 rpg. Zito has had some extra time off and that cannot hurt and the Giants finally get him into the win column on Monday.
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Play San Francisco Giants 1 Unit

Jimmy Boyd


Bonus Play: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Saint Louis Cardinals
St. Louis -126 Pittsburgh is 0-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The Pirates are also 0-6 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season and 0-7 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season. Rarely will you find 0-for trends like this in baseball.

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We'll take the Cards at home today.

FPBE Free Picks

Marc Lawrence - MIL -120 MLB
Matty O'Shea - FLA +102 MLB


Mike Lineback MLB

4* Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers Total Points OVER 7.5 for Game -110


(Z. Greinke must start J. Verlander must start.) Realize we have two quality arms on the hill tonight in Detroit. However, we will bank on warmer temperatures & 20 + mph winds blowing out to left center to have an impact on this game. Greinke has been sensational in two starts but has a history of not handling success very well and can get unraveled in a hurry if things get a little rough. If Detroit can get into the Royals bullpen early or by the 5th or 6th inning, I can see the home bats covering this number by themselves. Royals bullpen 5.80 ERA on season; 7.83 ERA L3 games. Tigers bullpen 5.18 ERA L3 games. K.C. have seen Verlander already this year. And believe Tiger bats are due for a big outburst. Basically playing against a low total number in windy Detroit tonight.
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Play the OVER.

ATS Financial package

3 units on the Baltimore Orioles (even) over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 7:00
3 units on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) over the Cincinnati Reds, 7:00

Monday Comps

Computer Boys-Colorado

Gold Key Games<o:p></o:p>

Silver Key (Bonus Play):UNDER 9.5 Runs Milwaukee Brewers

Paul Leiner


5* Astros
5* Devil Rays

Billy Coleman


4* Balt w/Loewen
4* St Louis
3* Cubs w/Marquis
3* San Fran w/Zito


PPP

Full Games

2% MIL
2% SD

5 Innings
2% Mil

Brandon Lang

10 DIME--CANCELLED
Phillies - Specify Pitchers - Maine vs Garcia

5 DIME
Cubs - Specify Pitchers - Hensley vs Marquis
Cardinals - Specify Pitchers - Snell vs Reyes
D'Rays - Specify Pitchers - Loewen vs Shields

FREE PICK

San Francisco Giants


Raymond

Cardinals BEST BET*

Tigers-Royals OVER 7.5 runs
Astros -120
Rockies -135


Cards at -120 is a great deal at home! You will not get many chances to get the cards at a cheap price!

Tigers – Royals 7.5 , for the AL 7.5 is very, very low with the DH
Over is 7-2 in KC last 9 games as a road underdog.
Over is 7-2 in KC last 9 road games.
Over is 7-2 in DET last 9 games as a home favorite.
Over is 9-3-1 in DET last 13 home games

Head to Head: Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings

ROCKIES THIS A PITCHING MISMATCH PLAIN AND SIMPLE!


HOUSTON , FLA DID NOT FARE WELL LAST YEAR VS LEFTIES, WHAT I REALLY LIKE IS AVG HITS AND WALKS! SANCHEZ 16.2 RODRIGUES 5.1
ANY TIME I GET A TEN POINT OR BETTER PITCHER YOU HAVE TO RUN WITH IT$

LOOK AT AVG AND WALKS

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DODGERS

Atlanta at Washington (2) 16th, 17th

It’s going to the hard to use the Nationals this year. Their play thus far confirms all the negative press they’ve received. But they were 14-8 (+$690) vs. lefties at RFK last year, so we’ll grab the price if Atlanta sends a southpaw to the hill. PREFERRED: Nationals vs. lefthanders.

N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (2) 16th, 17th

These teams played a three game set at Shea Stadium last week, so check those results before jumping in. The Mets made money on the road vs. righties last year (+$1390), while the Phillies lost money vs. righties at Citizens Bank (-$630). We’ll play this series accordingly. PREFERRED: Mets when righty meets righty.



Milwaukee at Cincinnati (2) 16th, 17th

Could be an interesting matchup, but the Reds lost money at Great American Ballpark in 2006 (-$535), while the Brewers were one of the very worst road teams in baseball ($2300), so caution is definitely advised. Pass for the time being. PREFERRED: None.

Florida at Houston (2) 16th, 17th

Righty vs. righty matchups clearly favor the visitor in this one (Marlins +$900 in 2006 Astros -$1410), especially with Houston playing so poorly to open the new season (1-5 record, averaging only 2.7 runs per game). PREFERRED: Marlins when righty meets righty.

San Diego at Chicago Cubs (2) 16th, 17th

The Cubs were winless against the NL West champs last season (0-7, -$740) and we’ve already noted how much money the Padres won away from Petco Park (+$1835 vs. righties) and how much money the Cubs managed to lose at Wrigley (-$1445 overall). Sets up very nicely for the visitor. PREFERRED: Padres vs. righthanders.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis (2) 16th, 17th

We’re not big fans of taking the Pirates as visitors, based on last year’s road difficulties. But they’ve started the season 4-2 as visitors (+$390) and they’ve got a trio of lefthanders in the starting rotation who can throttle the St. louis attack (Cardinals 22-34, -$2515 vs. lefthanders last season). PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Cardinals.

San Francisco at Colorado (2) 16th, 17th

The Giants had problems with the Rockies in ‘06 (8-10, -$360) and they struggled outside of ATT Park (-$1200). Colorado averaged 6.1 runs per game against lefties (+$520), so take a chance if they square off against the SF southpaws. PREFERRED: Rockies vs. Zito & Lowry.

L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (2) 16th, 17th

The Dodgers have trio of righthanded aces in Schmidt, Penny and Lowe, all of whom should match up nicely against the Diamondbacks (-$935 vs. righthanders at home). We should get to use at least one of them in this two game set. PREFERRED: Schmidt/Penny/Lowe.

Kansas City at Detroit (3) 16th, 17th, 18th

The Royals might be competitive with Gil Meche and Zach Greinke in the rotation, but they were only 4-14 against the Tigers last season (-$510) and on paper Detroit looks as good, if not better, than they were last year. We’ll steer clear for the time being. PREFERRED: None.

Tony Onio

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500* Cardinals
100* Dodgers
Comp* Rockies
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Great Lakes<o:p></o:p>
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Comp* St. Louis


Pacific Star


MLB Picks: 8-3 last 11
FLORIDA MARLINS

Chris Jordan

500* Dodgers

Chuck Franklin


1500* Reds
1500* Cardinals

Drew Gordon

300000 Devil Rays
100000 Rockies

Karl Garrett


40* Mets
20* Giants

Rob House

2000000 Cardinals
500000 Astros


Professional-Plays


YTD =(14-4) Last 18 games
2 units St Louis -128


Proffit Plays


Triple Plays YTD = 31-24
Atlanta
Detroit
Colorado
 

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Nice job,

I will have plays up soon, have to drop off my local taxes.

BB

Thanks BB. I am used to seeing you post the service plays in the NBA Forum around 3:00 (central time) or so everyday. I am usually at work at this time (sometimes I am in the office, other times I am traveling). So generally it's no rush.

My only goal is to have the service plays reposted in the Bases Forum at least an hour or two before the early evening games begin. Hopefully people realize that they can view them on your therad as well if for some reason I am ever too busy with work to get them reposted here.

Thanks for all the plays BB!!
 

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More from BB:

Another Service Play from BB:

Freese 10


Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese

Game: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Apr 16 2007 8:35PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reason: Colorado is 2-0 behind Jeff Francis this year and he has allowed just 4 runs total in those starts. The lefthander has dominated the Giants at home of late going 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in his last 4 home team starts vs. them. Francis is 13-4 when pitching with 5 or 6 days rest. San Francisco starter Barry Zito is 0-2 this year allowing 11 runs in 11 innings of work. Zito is 3-14 in his April team starts the last 3+ years. 10* MLB Game of the Month Play on Colorado - (Francis vs. Zito)
 
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Big Al's Paid Plays


At 9:05 pm, our Western Conference Game of the Week Winner is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Portland, as Jerry Sloan's crew falls into a system that is 36-13 ATS since 1990. What we want to do is play on any home team in the final three games of the regular season that's off a loss of 15 or more points, if it's matched up against a foe off a straight-up win. With Utah in off a 126-98 defeat on Saturday vs. Phoenix, and the Blazers in off a 108-102 victory over Seattle, our system's parameters are fulfilled. This is a game that Utah needs desperately to win. And not just because the Jazz trail Houston by 2 games in the race for home court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. Utah also needs to win this game for its psyche. The Jazz have lost a season-high three straight home games (following a 7-game home win streak), and also have dropped their last two meetings (both on the road) to the Trail Blazers. But the good news is that Utah has won 10 of its last 11 home games vs. Portland, and has held the Blazers to just 85 points per game in that stretch. Portland's Rookie of the Year candidate, Brandon Roy, may be held out of tonight's contest (he didn't play on Saturday vs. the Sonics), and that is also good news for Utah. Take the Jazz. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my MLB Division Game of the Month Winner today.


At 7:10 pm our NL Central Game of the Month is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Reds lefthanded veteran Eric Milton is the typical example of a talented pitcher with a lot of promise but whose promise never materialized. Even in his best year, 2001 with Minnesota when he won 15 games, his ERA was stil well over 4 runs. Milton's last 2 seasons since joining the Reds have been a disaster. His record during this time is 16-24 and his ERA is well over 5.5 runs. At this point, being a spot starter and praying he doesn't blow up is the best anyone can hope for from this southpaw. On the other side is another lefty, Chris Capuano, who is off to another good start this season, having won both of his outings. Oddly, these two teams have not squared off since last July, but the Brewers have been dominating lately, with 9 wins in the last 13 meetings. The Reds are completely banged up right now and their biggest offense weapon, outfielder Adam Dunn, is questionable for this game with a bad back. In addition to Dunn, nine other members of the Reds roster are either doubtful to play or out altogether. The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NBA Blowout Winner tonight.


Hope you don't mind bookie!!!
 
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Big Al's Paid Plays


At 9:05 pm, our Western Conference Game of the Week Winner is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Portland, as Jerry Sloan's crew falls into a system that is 36-13 ATS since 1990. What we want to do is play on any home team in the final three games of the regular season that's off a loss of 15 or more points, if it's matched up against a foe off a straight-up win. With Utah in off a 126-98 defeat on Saturday vs. Phoenix, and the Blazers in off a 108-102 victory over Seattle, our system's parameters are fulfilled. This is a game that Utah needs desperately to win. And not just because the Jazz trail Houston by 2 games in the race for home court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. Utah also needs to win this game for its psyche. The Jazz have lost a season-high three straight home games (following a 7-game home win streak), and also have dropped their last two meetings (both on the road) to the Trail Blazers. But the good news is that Utah has won 10 of its last 11 home games vs. Portland, and has held the Blazers to just 85 points per game in that stretch. Portland's Rookie of the Year candidate, Brandon Roy, may be held out of tonight's contest (he didn't play on Saturday vs. the Sonics), and that is also good news for Utah. Take the Jazz. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my MLB Division Game of the Month Winner today.


At 7:10 pm our NL Central Game of the Month is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Reds lefthanded veteran Eric Milton is the typical example of a talented pitcher with a lot of promise but whose promise never materialized. Even in his best year, 2001 with Minnesota when he won 15 games, his ERA was stil well over 4 runs. Milton's last 2 seasons since joining the Reds have been a disaster. His record during this time is 16-24 and his ERA is well over 5.5 runs. At this point, being a spot starter and praying he doesn't blow up is the best anyone can hope for from this southpaw. On the other side is another lefty, Chris Capuano, who is off to another good start this season, having won both of his outings. Oddly, these two teams have not squared off since last July, but the Brewers have been dominating lately, with 9 wins in the last 13 meetings. The Reds are completely banged up right now and their biggest offense weapon, outfielder Adam Dunn, is questionable for this game with a bad back. In addition to Dunn, nine other members of the Reds roster are either doubtful to play or out altogether. The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NBA Blowout Winner tonight.


Hope you don't mind bookie!!!

Thanks for the help.
 

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More Service Plays from BB:

More Service Plays from Bookie Buster:

Trev Rogers

Orioles

Strike Point Sports

2* St. Louis

Russ Culver

Sides

Nationals +175
Royals +180

Totals

Florida-Houston OVER 9 1/2 +110 (Sanchez-Rodriguez)
SF-Colorado UNDER 9 1/2 +110 (Zito-Francis)

Larry Ness

Total Game of the Week: CIN Reds OVER

Tom Freese

10* GOM: COL Rockies

Stu Finer

500 DIME MLB No Brainer: OVER Marlins-Astros

200 DIME MLB No Brainer: TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

Gamblers Choice

24 - 8 +32.15
2.5 Fla +10
2.5 Balt +10
 

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More form BB:

More Service Plays from BB:

California Sports

3* Reds
3* Tampa

Power Play of the Day

LAD –128

Note: Power Play lost for the very first time all season yesterday. The beginning of a bad trend? Or a minor blip on the radar screen? You be the judge...but I think they bounce back tonight.

The Fishman

5 unit col
5 unit fla
2.5 unit t. bay

Dr. Ringo

3 unit Col
2.5 unit Fla,
2.5 unit Cubs
2.5 unit TB
1 unit KC

John Ryan 5*

Game: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs Apr 16 2007 8:05PM
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Cubs - Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 58-31 and has made 27.7 units in profits since 2001. Play against any team below average NL hitting team batting <=.255 and with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season and is now facing a team with a good bullpen sporting an ERA <=3.75, with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. The grading is the final result of the AiS. The slight differences in the probabilities of ATS and SU wins are only shown as just 1 example of the many modules involved in the neural net. Differing probabilities do not make one play stronger than another. Remember always that the reason we are making this play is due to the AiS grading. The supplemental info, angles, and systems serve only to reinforce the grading.
 
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Larry Ness' 20* NL Pitching Mismatch Game of the Month (just 2nd 20* of MLB '07!)
My 20* play is on the LA Dodgers at 9:40 ET. The Dodgers and D'backs both enter this game having won three consecutive series as well as eight of their last 10 games. However, it's the HUGE edge the Dodgers own in the mound matchup that has me on LA tonight. Brad Penny had some troubles in the second half last year but still won 16 games in 2006 for LA. He's quieted all skeptics in his first two starts of 2007, by allowing just one ER in 13.1 innings, for an ERA of 0.68 (has opened 2-0). Arizona will send fifth-year player Edgar Gonzalez to the mound and he's made juts 33 career appearances (19 starts), going 6-14 with a 6.62 ERA. In 2004, he made 10 starts, going 0-9 with a 9.32 ERA. He appeared in just one game in 2005, getting one out while allowing four ERs (that's an ERA of 108.00!). Last year, he made 11 appearances (five starts), going 3-4 with a 4.22 ERA. He's made two starts in 2007 (D'backs have won both) but his numbers are hardly anything special (12 IP / 13 hits / 6 ERs / 4.50 ERA). He's never started a game vs the Dodgers but in three relief appearances against them, is 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA. NL Pitching Mismatch of the Month 20* LA Dodgers.
 
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charlie

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nba. memphis+5' (500*)

nba. atlanta @ milwaukee under 208 (30*)

nba. san antonio @ memphis over 210 (20*)

nba. boston+8 (20*)

mlb. st.louis-130 (10*)

mlb. houston-115 (10*) Bonus Play


MTI

4* Reds
 

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charlie

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nba. memphis+5' (500*)

nba. atlanta @ milwaukee under 208 (30*)

nba. san antonio @ memphis over 210 (20*)

nba. boston+8 (20*)

mlb. st.louis-130 (10*)

mlb. houston-115 (10*) Bonus Play


MTI

4* Reds

Thanks BB!
 

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