MLB: Monday April 16th Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 16, 2007

Mets @ Phillies
Play: Mets +100
Intrinsic Value: -123
Consider Betting Price: -101
Comment:
It’s hard to pass up betting on the most dangerous road team in the NL without having to lay basis points against a team that is really struggling to get wins right now. The Phillies are starting to resemble last year’s team where they started slow out of the gates and were finding ways to lose. Garcia might be in for a long debut, as he is facing a lineup loaded from the left side, a situation in which he has struggled against in the past. Being his first start of the season, he is not in the same shape most starting pitchers are in right now, and will be on a smaller pitch count as well. This does not bode well for a team whose bullpen is sub par, struggling, and has been known to get overmatched by this Mets lineup. Not getting an ideal left handed bullpen pitcher will prove costly for the Phillies pitching in this division, especially against the Mets. Although Garcia is making his first NL start, he does have a past history against a few of the Mets hitters, and it is not good. He has been dominated by Beltran, Delgado, and Green, while there are a couple of others that pose match up problems for him. The Mets are one of the few lineups that are more dangerous hitting on the road, and their power could really take advantage of this ballparks dimensions.

Maine continues to fly under the radar a bit, even though he has started this season where he left last years- in dominating fashion. Maine has been one of the hardest pitchers to get hits off of during the last couple of years. He just eats up right handed hitters, and his multi pitch arsenal allows him to pitch to left handed bats much more effectively than most right handed pitchers, which is a huge asset going up against this Phillies lineup. Maine has had no problems against the Phillies the last couple of years, and his produced a 2.35 ERA against them in four starts. He has had the upper hand against most of their batters, including Rollins and Howard, who come into today’s game a combined 3 for 21 against him. Being backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball should make it hard for this Phillies lineup to score throughout this game.

buffettgambler · Apr 16, 2007

Brewers @ Reds
Play: Brewers -115
Intrinsic Value: -133
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
Although I was hoping to get a little more value on the Brewers, its hard to pass up going against Milton when pitching in this park, as a fly ball pitcher and Great American just don’t mix. Look no further than last year, where Milton posted a 5.38 ERA in this park, and allowed 16 home runs in a little of 80innings of work. Throughout his career, he has actually been more prone to allowing home runs to left handed batters, which is a good thing for the Brewers, whose main power comes from the left side. He did not pitcher terribly effectively against the Brewers last year. He is backed by a bullpen who although has posted solid numbers year to date, lack the talent to keep those numbers sustained. Although the Reds have been posted an impressive record so far, they have been playing poorly, but simply have taken advantage of other teams playing worse.

The Reds lineup is overrated and one of the worst in the league. They are also a lineup that is vulnerable in facing southpaws. Look no further than the last couple of games where they were thoroughly dominated by both Hill and Lilly. This will be the third straight game in which they will have to face a southpaw, and one of the better ones to boot. Capuano has always been a pitcher that starts out the season in dominant fashion. His career first half ERA remains in the mid 3’s. He has just eaten up left handed bats throughout his career, including this year where he has dominated them as well. This does not bode well for the Reds whose three or possibly four best power hitters all bat from the left side. Having only allowed just seven home runs in his career against left handed batters should curtail the strengths of the Reds lineup and this ball parks hitter friendly environment. He is also backed by a deeper and more talented bullpen in this game. The Reds have scored just one run in the last two games.

buffettgambler · Apr 16, 2007

Padres @ Cubs
Play: Padres +112
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I don’t care how talented the Cubs roster is. They are playing horrible baseball right now, and are finding ways to lose games. This does not bode well for them, as they are up against a team that rarely beats themselves and thrives on opponents who are self destructing in nature. I am not worried at all by Hensley’s slow start. He is still one of the more promising young pitchers in baseball and has pitched better than his numbers would lead you to believe. The first game he pitched well, but was squeezed by the home plate ump, and instead an inning ending strike three, he was left on the mound an allowed four runs in that inning. The next game he was plagued by poor defense and lucky hits by the Giants hitters. Today he gets a shot to redeem himself against a lineup that has played some of the worst situational baseball out of any team this season. Hensley’s pitching style allows him to dominate right handed hitters, and the Cubs are stacked from the right side. With the way Jones and Floyd have been swinging the bat, they don’t pose a threat to him. Hensley dominated the Cubs last year in his only start against them, where he pitched a complete game shutout, and allowed just two hits. He is backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which should make it hard for the struggling Cubs lineup to come out of their funk. Although they are a deep lineup, they appear to be missing Ramirez more than originally planed.

The Padres are another lineup that prefers hitting on the road more than at home. Today they get to show that, as they face an inconsistent sinkerball pitcher who can struggle against lineups that are loaded from the left side. Although Marquis is off to a solid start, he could implode at any time. He possessed the worst NL ERA of any starter in the league, and lacks control, something that could be a problem against a patient lineup. He has not pitched the Padres terribly effectively. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen, this is one of the few series in which the Cubs bullpen does not provide them a pitching advantage in the later innings.

buffettgambler · Apr 16, 2007

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Play: Dodgers -115
Intrinsic Value -131
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
Penny appears to be starting out the season in the same fashion as last year-dominating enough to earn him a starting bid in the All Star Game. His fastball has been overpowering, something that has allowed him to work out of jams. Although he has been known to be a much less effective pitcher during his road starts, there might not be a team in baseball in which he has dominated more than the Dbacks throughout his career, and has pitched better in this park compared to most road parks. He comes into today’s game with a career 2.11 ERA against them, and a WHIP of 1.04. Penny is more vulnerable against left handed hitters, and the Dbacks are no longer the threat they used to be from the left side. He is backed by a solid bullpen which should make it hard for the Dbacks to score throughout this game. Although the DBacks are off to a fast start, they have been helped out by a soft schedule, and playing inferior road teams, something that should come to an end in this game.

Since being called up to the big leagues, Gonzalez has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. His opponents have hit .326 against him in over 100 career innings, and has been ineffective against both right and left handed hitters. He has struggled more on the road, during night games, and early in the season as well. He has also been dominated by the Dodgers, who have scored 13 times and have gotten 19 hits off of him in just 10 innings of work. His finesse style should continue to have problems against a veteran lineup like the Dodgers. Although the Dbacks bullpen has been well of late, they are not terribly talented, especially the front end that is likely to see action in today’s ball game.

CapNWatch · Apr 16, 2007

On all three of them already. Gl buffett.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 16, 2007

-1.17 Yesterday

+13.01 YTD

Jibba · Apr 16, 2007

Glad to say I'm on all of them with you. As always, enjoyed the writeups. BOL.

finman13 · Apr 16, 2007

like em all. touch leary on the cubs, if they ever wake up. will this be the day?
still playing them all. what line would you want on the royals today buffet or the nats?

buffettgambler · Apr 16, 2007

Good luck fellas.

Finman,
I valued the Royals at +191 and wouldnt touch them unless I were getting at least +220. On the surface one would think the Royals would consistently come with value on the road, being a public fade, but this is one team that really isn't worth much on the road.

I valued the Nats at +156. They are a bit undervalued ( as usual) but not enough to warrant a play. I wouldn't touch them unless getting +180.

Not much value on today's card in my opinion. Even the games played just hit my target.

finman13 · Apr 16, 2007

well didnt want to jinx myself earlier, but i took the red sox runline -105. didnt see a of value over -180 for them, they were at +210 right before game time. i thought they would pound a struggling ervin santana, whose era is about the same as a large 2 topping pizza now. runline should have been about -130 with a red hot beckett on the hill, despite the cold. looking good right now...

finman13 · Apr 16, 2007

by the way, i almost wholeheartedly agree that runlines are sucker bets...maybe once a week i see a good value on them. just my 2 cents. have a great day everyone.

buffettgambler · Apr 16, 2007

finman13 said:
i thought they would pound a struggling ervin santana, whose era is about the same as a large 2 topping pizza now.quote]

Santana is as much of a situational pitcher as you can get. He is a fundamental handicappers dream, as he provides a lot of value ( either on or against) not reflected in the line in any given start. Every sign pointed to a horrible outing for Santana in this game....everything. But the Red Sox are very seldom undervalued at home, as the overvalution of Santana (due to the unfavorable situational spot) was negated by the consistently overvalued Red Sox at home.

finman13 · Apr 16, 2007

i hear ya, but the way beckett is mowing people down this year and has command of his pitches, combined with santana being a bad road pitcher for his career, i liked the value. add to that the fact that the red sox sticks have been taken out of hibernation (perhaps some home cookin did that). i did think the line of -210 was, as you pointed out, overvalued a bit.

finman13 · Apr 16, 2007

looks like the touts are on the cubbies again. buffett or anyone see any value this early in the season on under 8 -115 in the tigers game? verlander yet to give up a run and greinke under 2 era. i seriously doubt the royals can put up more than 3 runs if not less, tigers have a grat bully to. i think greinke would have to get pounded for this to go over. cold weather seems to be keeping runs down so far this year. i was suprised to see the total not at 7.5. also looking at over in the cubs game at 8...probably wont touch.

finman13 · Apr 16, 2007

also wanted to ask you buffett what your value is on the rockies. i like francis as a lefty going against bonds and the giants. he has pitched well so far. zito has been rocked. giants cant score and correct me if im wrong but rockies gave dback 2 of their 4 losses so far in their only series at coors. i have em at -133 which seems pretty reasonable

buffettgambler · Apr 16, 2007

finman13 said:
also wanted to ask you buffett what your value is on the rockies. i like francis as a lefty going against bonds and the giants. he has pitched well so far. zito has been rocked. giants cant score and correct me if im wrong but rockies gave dback 2 of their 4 losses so far in their only series at coors. i have em at -133 which seems pretty reasonable

I think the Rockies will make a good long term bet this year, as they are a better team than most give them credit for. However, there is no value on them today (although they have a better chance of winning than losing). I valued them at -116, and would consider a position on the Giants if I could get at least +134 on them. I am a fan of Francis, but he just doesn't fool the Giants hitters. He is backed by a tired and somewhat struggling bullpen. Zito make struggle with the thin air, but I would much rather prefer the Rockies young hitters going up against a fastball power pitcher than a crafy lefty that prays on batters that are too aggressive.

On a side not, I value the Rockies at -114 tommorrow, and have a feeling that you will see them as an underdog against Cain. Time will tell.

finman13 · Apr 16, 2007

thanks buffett. i like hirsh...will keep an eye out

finman13 · Apr 16, 2007

i see there is a pitching change in the nats game. back to chico instead of j williams

Jibba · Apr 16, 2007

I know you've seen a lot of value in the Pirates this year BG. Considering a play on them today? Doesn't look like the line will be moving anymore from +125 or so. Pitching clearly favors Pitt IMO, but pretty much everything else leans toward the Cards.

buffettgambler · Apr 16, 2007

Jibba said:
I know you've seen a lot of value in the Pirates this year BG. Considering a play on them today? Doesn't look like the line will be moving anymore from +125 or so. Pitching clearly favors Pitt IMO, but pretty much everything else leans toward the Cards.

Not quite, but they are once again undervalued. I valued them at +110, but require a 20 basis point margin of safety in this situational spot, so I wouldnt bet them until the hit at least +130. Both the Pirates and Giants can hit my target some time at matchbook, but probably both will fall just shy of that.

On a side note, the Pirates are coming with even more value tommorrow. I value tehm at +127 ( subject to change a few basis points if an abnormal event occurs tonight). They opened at +150 at some places, but noticed early action has brought it down a bit. Just opened at Pinny 30 seconds ago at +147 ( my target), but may continue to drop on downward pressure by sharps, until the squares bid up Wainwright some time tommorrow.