Alright boys and girls, now 12-4 on the season after the big Dodgers ML win last night and now it's time to pound away on some more big winners. I don't even know if this game is going to be played but you have to love what we are getting here in this mid-afternoon rain fest. Alright, the money train is rolling big time and no reason for it to stop now. Here we go:
LOS ANGELES ANGELS ML +169
Once again, this reminds me of the Cincinnati ML +155 on Friday in the Zambrano vs. Harang game. Santana is getting absolutely no respect here and I think that's a huge mistake by oddsmakers and by the 60% who are on them today. You have to think that after losing 5 of their last 6 games, the Angels are going to want to come out and play. If they are going to get this game in, there is no way LA is going to just sit there and lose. Okay so the price looks about right for Josh Beckett but is it really? I mean when the hell are you ever going to see Ervin Santana at +172 agains this year? The kid is coming off a rough start in Cleveland but has had plenty of time to recover. I know he got crushed in his only career Fenway start but that was in 2005 and Ervin is a completely different pitcher now. In seven career April starts he has only ever lost one game and he has held opponents to .242 batting (best month of his career). So if you're gonna bet on him, now is the time to do it. If you take a look at the Red Sox starting lineup today, they are hitting a combined lifetime .275 versus right handed pitchers. Josh Beckett has looked good in his two starts allowing only 2 ERs in 12 innings of work but those games were against the soft hitting Royals and slumping Mariners. Beckett is a notorious daytime pitcher and he always has been but I think what people are forgetting in this case is that he has not pitched all that well in Fenway Park. He is 8-6 in 18 career Fenway starts with a 4.63 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Not bad at all but it makes him vulnerable. The Angels starting nine batters are batting a combined lifetime .276 versus right handed pitchers so there is potential. The Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 7 games when Beckett is a favorite and although they beat the Mariners, that trend could easily continue today. I also know that home plate umpire Rick Reed has a thing for the Angels as they are 6-0 the last six times he has been behind home plate for their games. The Sox are also only 1-4 the last five times Beckett has come off 5 days rest or more and although he has pitched well, he has not strung together many good starts. It has almost always been one good start, one bad start for Beckett. That trend won't change here. The Angels are very capable and since this game is being played anyways, they are going to do what it takes to win. Santana can be a good pitcher and the Angels can be a very good team. Time to move the line at Pinnacle. GO ANGELS!
:toast:
LOS ANGELES ANGELS ML +169
Once again, this reminds me of the Cincinnati ML +155 on Friday in the Zambrano vs. Harang game. Santana is getting absolutely no respect here and I think that's a huge mistake by oddsmakers and by the 60% who are on them today. You have to think that after losing 5 of their last 6 games, the Angels are going to want to come out and play. If they are going to get this game in, there is no way LA is going to just sit there and lose. Okay so the price looks about right for Josh Beckett but is it really? I mean when the hell are you ever going to see Ervin Santana at +172 agains this year? The kid is coming off a rough start in Cleveland but has had plenty of time to recover. I know he got crushed in his only career Fenway start but that was in 2005 and Ervin is a completely different pitcher now. In seven career April starts he has only ever lost one game and he has held opponents to .242 batting (best month of his career). So if you're gonna bet on him, now is the time to do it. If you take a look at the Red Sox starting lineup today, they are hitting a combined lifetime .275 versus right handed pitchers. Josh Beckett has looked good in his two starts allowing only 2 ERs in 12 innings of work but those games were against the soft hitting Royals and slumping Mariners. Beckett is a notorious daytime pitcher and he always has been but I think what people are forgetting in this case is that he has not pitched all that well in Fenway Park. He is 8-6 in 18 career Fenway starts with a 4.63 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Not bad at all but it makes him vulnerable. The Angels starting nine batters are batting a combined lifetime .276 versus right handed pitchers so there is potential. The Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 7 games when Beckett is a favorite and although they beat the Mariners, that trend could easily continue today. I also know that home plate umpire Rick Reed has a thing for the Angels as they are 6-0 the last six times he has been behind home plate for their games. The Sox are also only 1-4 the last five times Beckett has come off 5 days rest or more and although he has pitched well, he has not strung together many good starts. It has almost always been one good start, one bad start for Beckett. That trend won't change here. The Angels are very capable and since this game is being played anyways, they are going to do what it takes to win. Santana can be a good pitcher and the Angels can be a very good team. Time to move the line at Pinnacle. GO ANGELS!
:toast:
