Favorites: 26-7 for +15.67 units
Underdogs: 6-3 for +4.13 units
Total: 32-10 for +19.8 units
6-3 on the day yesterday. Wish I hadn't played the two late dogs scared. Played them to win 1 unit rather than the other way around, but still a winning day at +2.17 units (I believe).
Posted this last night but will repeat it here with some more plays.
Boston -145: I think part of the reason we're getting this line, even though Dice-K is hyped beyond belief, is because some people out there are going to look at Chacin's 5-0 career record against the Sox and think he owns them. The exact opposite is the truth. Chacin is indeed 5-0 against the Red Sox, but that record goes along with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and 11 Ks againts 15 BBs. To top it off, Boston is batting .292 against Chacin (Ortiz is 5-for-16 with 2 HRs against Chacin).
The only reason for Chacin's record is the 9.59 runs per game he's received in his 7 starts against the Sox. I feel confident that's not going to be the case tomorrow, especially with Glaus and Johnson on the DL. I think being away from the pressure of Boston is going to be great for Dice K. Fenway was a madhouse in his last start. Now he'll be taking the hill in the far away confines of the Skydome. Lastly, I want to mention that with BJ Ryan also on the DL, the bullpen matchup also clearly favors Boston IMO.
I think the Sox are a steal at this price. Yes . . . 2 days in a row on the Sox. But this won't become a habit. I just know this team better than any other team and feel like I can pick and choose some great spots. This is one of them. 1.45 units to win 1.
Pittsburgh +154: I think this may turn into a great pitching matchup. Wainwright has been pretty hyped, but I think Gorzelanny is still relatively unknown, despite putting up 2 solid performances so far this season. He shut down this same St. Louis offense just last week, allowing only 4 hits, 0 walks and striking out 5 over 7 shutout innings in Pittsburgh. Wainwright also looked good in his start against Pittsburgh, but overall the team just isn't playing that well. That being said, I'm happy to take the Pirates getting +150 in a game that I feel could go either way. 1 unit to win 1.54.
Cleveland +122: I talked myself out of this one momentarily last night and ended up losing some of the value as the line has dropped from +127. But I just can't stay away as I think there is solid value in this one. The Yankees are coming off a 3-3 road trip through Minnesota and Oakland (first game home after a road trip is generally a decent fade). After a crushing defeat at the hands of Marco Scutaro Sunday night, they traveled thousands of miles back home to the Bronx. So they're tired, they're probably still caught up on the emotional loss Sunday, and they're not playing all that well anyways. Seems to be adding up nicely for the Tribe.
Moving on, the Yankees send Chase Wright to the mound in his first career start. Can you imagine the pressure on this kid, facing the Indians' dangerous lineup in Yankee Stadium in his first career start? And he's going up against a veteran like Jake Westbrook? That's a tall order. I'm not going to say there's no chance that the Yanks will light up Westbrook tonight and make Wright's job a hell of a lot easier, but in a matchup like this I like getting + odds. 1 unit to win 1.22.
I still have leans on Arizona, LAA (still waiting to get a + odds line if/when Vlad is announced out), Milwaukee, and the Chi Sox. Will be back in a bit but BOL to everyone on today's card.
Underdogs: 6-3 for +4.13 units
Total: 32-10 for +19.8 units
6-3 on the day yesterday. Wish I hadn't played the two late dogs scared. Played them to win 1 unit rather than the other way around, but still a winning day at +2.17 units (I believe).
Posted this last night but will repeat it here with some more plays.
Boston -145: I think part of the reason we're getting this line, even though Dice-K is hyped beyond belief, is because some people out there are going to look at Chacin's 5-0 career record against the Sox and think he owns them. The exact opposite is the truth. Chacin is indeed 5-0 against the Red Sox, but that record goes along with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and 11 Ks againts 15 BBs. To top it off, Boston is batting .292 against Chacin (Ortiz is 5-for-16 with 2 HRs against Chacin).
The only reason for Chacin's record is the 9.59 runs per game he's received in his 7 starts against the Sox. I feel confident that's not going to be the case tomorrow, especially with Glaus and Johnson on the DL. I think being away from the pressure of Boston is going to be great for Dice K. Fenway was a madhouse in his last start. Now he'll be taking the hill in the far away confines of the Skydome. Lastly, I want to mention that with BJ Ryan also on the DL, the bullpen matchup also clearly favors Boston IMO.
I think the Sox are a steal at this price. Yes . . . 2 days in a row on the Sox. But this won't become a habit. I just know this team better than any other team and feel like I can pick and choose some great spots. This is one of them. 1.45 units to win 1.
Pittsburgh +154: I think this may turn into a great pitching matchup. Wainwright has been pretty hyped, but I think Gorzelanny is still relatively unknown, despite putting up 2 solid performances so far this season. He shut down this same St. Louis offense just last week, allowing only 4 hits, 0 walks and striking out 5 over 7 shutout innings in Pittsburgh. Wainwright also looked good in his start against Pittsburgh, but overall the team just isn't playing that well. That being said, I'm happy to take the Pirates getting +150 in a game that I feel could go either way. 1 unit to win 1.54.
Cleveland +122: I talked myself out of this one momentarily last night and ended up losing some of the value as the line has dropped from +127. But I just can't stay away as I think there is solid value in this one. The Yankees are coming off a 3-3 road trip through Minnesota and Oakland (first game home after a road trip is generally a decent fade). After a crushing defeat at the hands of Marco Scutaro Sunday night, they traveled thousands of miles back home to the Bronx. So they're tired, they're probably still caught up on the emotional loss Sunday, and they're not playing all that well anyways. Seems to be adding up nicely for the Tribe.
Moving on, the Yankees send Chase Wright to the mound in his first career start. Can you imagine the pressure on this kid, facing the Indians' dangerous lineup in Yankee Stadium in his first career start? And he's going up against a veteran like Jake Westbrook? That's a tall order. I'm not going to say there's no chance that the Yanks will light up Westbrook tonight and make Wright's job a hell of a lot easier, but in a matchup like this I like getting + odds. 1 unit to win 1.22.
I still have leans on Arizona, LAA (still waiting to get a + odds line if/when Vlad is announced out), Milwaukee, and the Chi Sox. Will be back in a bit but BOL to everyone on today's card.