Jibba's Tues MLB

Favorites: 26-7 for +15.67 units
Underdogs: 6-3 for +4.13 units
Total: 32-10 for +19.8 units

6-3 on the day yesterday. Wish I hadn't played the two late dogs scared. Played them to win 1 unit rather than the other way around, but still a winning day at +2.17 units (I believe).

Posted this last night but will repeat it here with some more plays.

Boston -145: I think part of the reason we're getting this line, even though Dice-K is hyped beyond belief, is because some people out there are going to look at Chacin's 5-0 career record against the Sox and think he owns them. The exact opposite is the truth. Chacin is indeed 5-0 against the Red Sox, but that record goes along with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and 11 Ks againts 15 BBs. To top it off, Boston is batting .292 against Chacin (Ortiz is 5-for-16 with 2 HRs against Chacin).

The only reason for Chacin's record is the 9.59 runs per game he's received in his 7 starts against the Sox. I feel confident that's not going to be the case tomorrow, especially with Glaus and Johnson on the DL. I think being away from the pressure of Boston is going to be great for Dice K. Fenway was a madhouse in his last start. Now he'll be taking the hill in the far away confines of the Skydome. Lastly, I want to mention that with BJ Ryan also on the DL, the bullpen matchup also clearly favors Boston IMO.

I think the Sox are a steal at this price. Yes . . . 2 days in a row on the Sox. But this won't become a habit. I just know this team better than any other team and feel like I can pick and choose some great spots. This is one of them. 1.45 units to win 1.

Pittsburgh +154: I think this may turn into a great pitching matchup. Wainwright has been pretty hyped, but I think Gorzelanny is still relatively unknown, despite putting up 2 solid performances so far this season. He shut down this same St. Louis offense just last week, allowing only 4 hits, 0 walks and striking out 5 over 7 shutout innings in Pittsburgh. Wainwright also looked good in his start against Pittsburgh, but overall the team just isn't playing that well. That being said, I'm happy to take the Pirates getting +150 in a game that I feel could go either way. 1 unit to win 1.54.


Cleveland +122: I talked myself out of this one momentarily last night and ended up losing some of the value as the line has dropped from +127. But I just can't stay away as I think there is solid value in this one. The Yankees are coming off a 3-3 road trip through Minnesota and Oakland (first game home after a road trip is generally a decent fade). After a crushing defeat at the hands of Marco Scutaro Sunday night, they traveled thousands of miles back home to the Bronx. So they're tired, they're probably still caught up on the emotional loss Sunday, and they're not playing all that well anyways. Seems to be adding up nicely for the Tribe.

Moving on, the Yankees send Chase Wright to the mound in his first career start. Can you imagine the pressure on this kid, facing the Indians' dangerous lineup in Yankee Stadium in his first career start? And he's going up against a veteran like Jake Westbrook? That's a tall order. I'm not going to say there's no chance that the Yanks will light up Westbrook tonight and make Wright's job a hell of a lot easier, but in a matchup like this I like getting + odds. 1 unit to win 1.22.

I still have leans on Arizona, LAA (still waiting to get a + odds line if/when Vlad is announced out), Milwaukee, and the Chi Sox. Will be back in a bit but BOL to everyone on today's card.

I agree with Boston and think you are getting great value on Pittsburgh.

I just have no faith in Westbrook. Maybe he'll step up for this game? But, I just don't have much faith in him. I understand your angle, though. Lots of pressure on the kid here. Pretty much a no play either way in my view.

hiphop22 said:

I agree with Boston and think you are getting great value on Pittsburgh.

I just have no faith in Westbrook. Maybe he'll step up for this game? But, I just don't have much faith in him. I understand your angle, though. Lots of pressure on the kid here. Pretty much a no play either way in my view.

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Thanks for the feedback. The reasons for not playing the game are actually the exact reasons I backed out last night while putting together my early plays. Decided I'd sleep on it, but woke up this morning and still see this as one of those coin flip type games. You never know exactly which Westbrook will show up, but in the end, getting +122 with an offense that could blow this kid out of the water was enough for me. BOL on your plays tonight hiphop.

I agree with you on the Tribe, but I can't help feeling this is a bit of a trap. +122 with a pretty solid veteran against a guy making his MLB debut backed by a poor bullpen.

I'm sold on the Dbacks tonite. Owings has looked good so far, and just look at Tomko's home/away splits last year and career. Brutal.

San Diego -116: I've been burned by this Padres team 2 days in a row now, but I just keep seeing value in them. And I think there is a lot of value there today. First, we have Maddux on the mound. I've gone against him this year on the premise that until he proves he still has it, I won't trust him. While he hasn't been lights out, he has shown me that he's still a solid major league starter. And he's returning to Wrigley to pitch against a team he's had very solid results against in his career. Over 20 starts against the Cubs, Maddux is 11-3 with a 2.38 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a .215 BAA. And not only is he going against a Cubs team that is not playing well, but one that is without Alfonso Soriano. The Cubs may also still be without Aramis Ramirez. There are reports he may be back in the starting lineup today, but I can't see him coming back with a big game right away as tendinitis has a way of lingering.

On the other side, Wade Miller will be taking the mound for the Cubs. I got to see a bit of Miller last year, and although at times he looked good, for the most part he was not a guy you'd want to count on. He looked terrible in his first start for the Cubs (4IPs, 9 hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks, 6 ERs, and 2 HRs), and I don't see any reason to expect a solid performance today. 1.16 units to win 1.

mrm said:

I agree with you on the Tribe, but I can't help feeling this is a bit of a trap. +122 with a pretty solid veteran against a guy making his MLB debut backed by a poor bullpen.

I'm sold on the Dbacks tonite. Owings has looked good so far, and just look at Tomko's home/away splits last year and career. Brutal.

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Yeah, I hear you on Cleveland. But I find that there are fewer "traps" in MLB games and especially Yankee games. The books can put the line as it is because they know they will always get Yankee money from the public when they're at home. I certainly wouldn't try to talk you into a play you don't particularly like, but I still feel like it's a solid play.

As for the D-Backs, there's a solid chance I'll be on them as well. Just a matter of feeling it out a bit more and making sure I'm not missing anything. BOL on your plays though and thanks for the feedback.

Wish I had waited on Pittsburgh. Up to +161 and it seems there's no end in sight to how high this one will go.

SD will win today off two terrible performances, maddux will shut down the cubs, possibly without aramis and soriano.

1-0 for +1.54 units so far on the day with the Pittsburgh win. Padres and Maddux just blew a 3-1 lead and it's tied 3-3 in the 5th in Chicago. Still feel good about that one, but we'll see. Adding some plays:

Chicago (AL) -131: Just too much value going against Texas and Tejeda here. The Rangers' pitching is exactly what the doctor ordered for an underachieving Chi Sox offense. Part of the reason for Chicago's slow start, IMO, has been solid pitching from their opponents. They've lost twice so far this year to CC Sabathia and once to Johan Santana. Sure, their bats haven't been there like they were last year, but they've also run into some tough spots. So they finally come back home tonight after a 6 game road trip and face a very hittable Robinson Tejeda.

Finally, Chicago has Garland going tonight. While I've never been a huge fan of his, you've got to give him enough credit to shut down this weak Rangers offense. He looked solid against the Rangers last year and I don't see any reason why he won't put up 7 solid innings tonight. 1.31 units to win 1.

LA Angels -107: I love this spot for LA. Coming home after getting absolutely destroyed in Boston this weekend and they have one of the best young pitchers in baseball going tonight. I understand he's coming off an injury and will be limited, but I still think he can dominate this Oakland offense. The Angels are nowhere near as bad as they looked this weekend, and I think 5-6 innings from Weaver is just what they need to boost their spirits.

LA is likely without Vlad tonight, and I'm fine with that. Baseball teams have a knack for picking up the slack when a guy like Vlad has to take a night or two off. Lastly, I like the angle of going against Oakland after their emotional, 2-out win over the Yankees Sunday night. I think they're in store for a bit of a letdown and even Marco Scutaro can't save them tonight. Will play it small for now though, as I think that by playing this now, I'll end up with either a good line (if Vlad plays) or a bad line (if Vlad sits). 0.54 units to win 0.5.

Houston -200: I had hoped to get this closer to -180 to -185, but so be it. Oswalt is exactly the type of pitcher that can dominate this young Marlins offense. I understand Houston isn't playing their best ball right now, but Oswalt has always been the spark that gets them going. Oswalt was a better pitcher last year at home and pretty much dominated Florida, going 1-0 in 2 starts with a 0.63 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a .216 BAA. Going to play it small as I don't like paying this high of a line. 1 unit to win 0.5.

I still have a couple of small leans, but I'm going to let them go for the time being as I really like my card as is. Also followed BuffettGambler on Colorado tonight, but obviously not counting it on my own record. BOL to everyone on their evening plays and let's go Padres!!

Oh, total card on the day as it now stands:

Boston -145: 1.45 units to win 1
Pittsburgh +154: 1 unit to win 1.54 Win
Cleveland +122: 1 unit to win 1.22 (wish I had waited for the better line)
San Diego -116: 1.16 units to win 1
Chicago (AL) -131: 1.31 units to win 1
LA Angels -107: 0.54 units to win 0.5
Houston -200: 1 unit to win 0.5

Like the White Sox too.

I will not have a play on the A's/Angels but am interested in Weaver's performance tonight. LAA is not home. I follow the A's very closely. Scutaro's heroics are not likely to result in a letdown tonight. They had yesterday off and if anything, Marco may have reignited the "different hero every night" feeling of confidence that carried them through the 2nd half last year.

GL with your picks.

mrm said:

Like the White Sox too.

I will not have a play on the A's/Angels but am interested in Weaver's performance tonight. LAA is not home. I follow the A's very closely. Scutaro's heroics are not likely to result in a letdown tonight. They had yesterday off and if anything, Marco may have reignited the "different hero every night" feeling of confidence that carried them through the 2nd half last year.

GL with your picks.

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Yeah, I didn't word that the way I wanted to. Didn't mean to say they were playing home, just that they are heading back to the west coast from the east coast. Good points though about the game. It's only a half unit play for me because there are definitely a lot of variables. How the A's respond to that big win is one of them. GL to you too.

love the cleveland pick, houston prob will win but i think florida will keep it close so Ive got the +1.5

hiphop22 said:

I just have no faith in Westbrook. Maybe he'll step up for this game? But, I just don't have much faith in him. I understand your angle, though. Lots of pressure on the kid here. Pretty much a no play either way in my view.

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I was afraid that would happen with Westbrook on the hill.

Yeah, I did mention in my writeup that there was a chance Westbrook would get lit up. That's the way it turned out but I'll take those losses sometimes when I'm getting + money on the line. I also misjudged how they Yanks would react to the big loss behind Mo on Monday night though.