ATP Picks 4-17-07 (3-1, +$290)

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1. Pittsburgh/St Louis Under 7 +110 (bodog)

This matchup has gone under the total at least 6 times in a row now in St Louis including last night and three times in Pittsburgh last week. The season scores between these two teams have been: 3-2,3-2,3-2, and 3-0. Pittsburgh managed to score three runs in the top of the first last night and didnt score the rest of the way, but held down St Louis to only 2 runs. Tom Gorzellany was studly last week vs the cards going 7IP and allowing only 4 hits with 0 ER. Wainwright was also solid in his last start vs the bucs going 6 IP and only allowing 2ER after stranding several runners. Both pitchers hold ERA's under 2.0. With Pittsburgh being the third lowest scoring team in the league and St Louis struggling at home (1-5) look for this to be a low scoring affair.

2. San Diego (Maddux -130) bodog

Maddux is one of the best students of the game, being with the Cubs for a few years he knows the strengths and weaknesses of this team better than probably anyone, holding an 11-3 career mark against the cubbies. Maddux exits a solid 4-0 win over the Giants while opposing pitcher Wade Miller struggled against Milwaukee allowing them to hit .450. San Diego had won 7 games in a row at wrigley prior to last night showing their dominance in the series and coming off back to back blowout losses expect the fathers to play hard today against a jeckel @ hyde team that could perhaps be without both alfonso soriano and aramis Ramirez.

Will post later picks.

YTD: 3-1 +$290:103631605

1. Pittsburgh/St louis under 100/110

2. San Diego 130/100
 

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With you on SD bro. Just have never felt comfortable with MLB totals, so I'll stay away from that one but there's a good chance that game will turn into a pitcher's duel.
 

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Got another bad start in St Louis .. plenty of time for pitching to come around
 

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got the miracle push after a sloppy start in pittsburgh:103631605
 

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Continuation of plays for the day

3. Detroit/Kansas City Over 9 (-125, bodog)

Tigers had been struggling to put up runs and if there was a game in this series where the bats would have been shutdown it would have been last night and they combined for 17 runs against Verlander and Greinke. Delarosa goes for KC, who pitched well vs Detroit last week going 7 strong and giving up only one ER; however, his road efforts have not been nearly as sharp. Mike Maroth threw only 5 innings giving up 4 runs to KC a week ago. KC really jacked him last yr where he managed to only get one out and give up 6 runs. The energizer for KC's offense, david dejesus has torched Maroth going 11-22 lifetime, meanwhile the total has gone over between these two teams 9 of the last 11 times and 5 times in a row when being played in detroit, so im looking for a repeat of last night in the run category. While expecting Detroit to probably win the game they will need to score at least 5-6 runs minimum.


4. Florida +1.5 runs (-110 bodog)

Roy Oswalt is a stud no doubt about it, but sometimes it seems the Astros struggle to find runs for him. It hasnt been a problem yet this year but I could see it happening for a team that cant even score 3 runs a game at home. I also notice he is pitching off three days rest which could be an issue for him going deep in the game against a team that has shown they can score runs. Though Mitre hasnt looked too impressive this season his ERA is only 4.09 and the Houston lineup is only 6 for 40 lifetime against him (.150 BA) Taking the run and a half for a team that scores 7 runs a game on the road looks great for a pkem game.


5. Milwaukee/Cincinnatti Over 9 (EVEN, bodog)

It doesnt appear that Belisle has had a start against the brew crew but in limited appearances just about everyone on the brewers roster has had some success and Belisle has looked good up to this point but those two games were against two of the more offensively challenged teams, Pittsburgh and Arizona. Dave Bush shows a 1-0 career mark against cincy but looking at his last two starts vs them the games have been scores of 8-7 and 7-8. It appears that everone on the Reds except Griffey, Dunn and Encarnacion have put on their hitting shoes against Bush so if any of those three bats show up this game could see a lot of runs.

6. Cleveland (Westbrook +126 bodog)

Westbrook's numbers dont look all that good this year but he has pitched well in his career vs NY winning two of the last three including a 19-1 win and 22-0 win. Given the fact that we dont know what to expect from the rook pitching for the yanks and the great baseball that Cleveland has been playing along with Westbrook getting some good run support Ill lean toward the Indians tonight as a dog.


125/100 Detroit Over 9
220/200 Florida +1.5
100/100 Cincy Over 9
100/126 Indians

Pittsburgh under pushed earlier and Padres game still pending in the 13th.:103631605
 

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