MLB: Tuesday April 17th Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 17, 2007

I may add some plays throughout the day.

Pirates @ Cardinals
Play: Pirates +162
Intrinsic Value +127
Consider Betting Price: +147
Comment:
This line is simply way off, as the public is overrating the Cardinals and Wainwright, and are failing to realize how poorly the Cardinals have been playing of late, and that notion that Wainwright is not the only young pitcher on the mound who has the ability to dominate. This is not a good match up for the Cardinals dormant bats to start coming alive. They have been one of the more inferior lineups in the league against southpaws over the last couple of years, and will have to now overcome this deficiency against one of the more underrated ones. It was only a week ago in which Gorzelanny faced the Cardinals, and was able to pitch seven scoreless innings. And now he is a +162 underdog? He has been incredibly hard to hit for both right and left handed hitters, coming into today’s game with a career left handed OBA of .192. He combines a mid 90’s fastball with an overpowering slider, and has allowed just four career home runs. He has been hard to pick up during the day, and pitches well out of jams. Although his stamina is lacking, he is backed by an underrated bullpen. The Cardinals continue to struggle against southpaws, and are prone to resting a starter or two in day games following night games. Its hard to imagine Edmonds playing in this game.

Wainwright is the real deal, but that is factored in the line, and then some. The Pirates got a good look at him last week, and used the right approach against him, as they were patient at the plate, and forced him to pitch strikes. This allowed them to put 11 runners on base against him. Wainwright is easier to pick up during day games, as his day game ERA is nearly twice that of his night. He still can’t pitch to left handed hitters effectively and has the propensity to accumulate high pitch counts. He is backed by an overrated bullpen. The Pirates have a greater chance of losing this game than winning, but a much better chance than the current odds reflect.

buffettgambler · Apr 17, 2007

Rangers @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -132
Intrinsic Value: -147
Consider Betting Price: -133
Comment:
Tejada is a very situational pitcher that is dependent on the lineup he is up against. He has a quality arsenal of pitches, but lacks the command to be effective against patient lineups that force him to throw strikes. This does not bode well for his chances, as the White Sox possess one of the most patient lineups in the league. He also hasn’t learned how to pitch to left handed batters, and is prone to allowing the walk and long ball against them. The White Sox have a quality set of patient left handed bats with power, and could take advantage of this deficiency in a hitter’s ball park. There is no denying that the White Sox bats are off to a slow start and are prone to regress from the last couple of years. However, they are too talented and deep to continue to play this poorly, and have been plagued by having to face a lot of quality pitchers that match up well against them, which is not the case in tonight’s game. They are a much more dangerous lineup at home and against right handed pitchers. Although the Rangers have a decent bullpen, they are back end heavy, and lack the ideal depth most quality bullpens have. Tejada is not known to go deep into games, and is more than likely going to be followed by sub par pitching.

With the way Buerhle and Contreras have quickly gone downhill, Garland might be the best pitcher on the team. He is coming off a dominating outing, and has pitched well in this park despite being one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Although he has some poor career numbers against the Rangers, they are a bit misleading, as he dominated them last year, putting for a sub one WHIP in over 20 innings of work. The Rangers have one of the most overrated lineups in baseball. The White Sox bullpen is better rested compared to most of the games they have had to pitch in this season.

buffettgambler · Apr 17, 2007

Giants @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -102
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I am a big fan of Cain’s, and think he is going to be a top five pitcher for many years to come. However, I think he is getting a bit too much respect in this game. He really struggled early last year, and despite his dominant start, it is inconclusive whether it will be the same case this year. His first two outings were against the Padres, a team that he has had more success compared to any other team in the league. He has been known to struggle much more on the road, expect when pitching in Petco, which was the case in his only road start this year. This will be a true test, as he now has to face a lineup that matches up well with his style, inside a park in which he has struggled pitching in the past, and against a couple of hitters that have hit him well in past years. Cain is also not pitching for the ideal team. He has the propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games, which forces him to leave games early, even when he is dominant. Being backed by a sub par bullpen decreases his value. The Rockies have one of the most talented lineups in the NL, and despite not showing it last night, they match up much better against a pitcher like Cain, who tries to over power them.

I am impressed with the way Hirsh has pitched his first two games. He has a good shot to put forth his third straight solid start, as he is up against a sub par lineup. Don’t put too much stock in the last couple of games in which the Giants bats dominated in. They were both against southpaw pitchers that simply came out flat in the game. Tonight will be a much different situation, as they are up against a 6’8 right handed pitcher that is hard to pick up. He throws a mid 90’s fastball and compliments it with a plus slider and changeup. He goes after hitters and tries to overpower them, which does not bode well for an aging lineup that can be overpowered. He has been hard to hit for left handed hitters, which also doesn’t bode well for a Giants team whose main talent comes from the left side. Although the Rockies bullpen is not as talented or efficient as last year, this is one series in which they do not have a bullpen disadvantage.

Jibba · Apr 17, 2007

On the Pirates as well, although I wish I had waited longer on the. Got them at +154, but still solid value there. Been leaning toward making the Chi Sox a play all day and will likely follow through with that one. Was kind of torn on that Rockies game as getting Cain at even money is enticing. You make some great points though and I'm considering following you on that one. Public is likely high on the Giants after the last couple games. As always, thanks and BOL.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 17, 2007

+2.33 Yesterday

+15.34 YTD

buffettgambler · Apr 17, 2007

Jibba said:
On the Pirates as well, although I wish I had waited longer on the. Got them at +154, but still solid value there. Been leaning toward making the Chi Sox a play all day and will likely follow through with that one. Was kind of torn on that Rockies game as getting Cain at even money is enticing. You make some great points though and I'm considering following you on that one. Public is likely high on the Giants after the last couple games. As always, thanks and BOL.

When betting againt the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Braves and Cardinals, or betting on the Nats, Pirates, and Royals, try waiting as long as possible. It will earn you a lot of money over the course of the season.

Good luck today, and keep up the great work.

finman13 · Apr 17, 2007

glad you are on the w sox. very good value to me. like the buccos as well at that price. little leary now on the giants game as i was on the padres last night. i might wait on that one. good writeups as usual. i think padres today offer a good value. maddux has owned his former team. cubs are banged up with 2 of their 3 best hitters out today i presume. also facing a struggling pitcher in w miller. all of that being said and the padres are only -136 at my book.

also dont think you will see jered weaver at almost an underdog the rest of the year. i know he has been out, but i dont have a reason to believe he wont come out mowing down a week lineup in a pitchers park. im guessing buffett you are staying away from this line because its his first start? what about the padres

finman13 · Apr 17, 2007

wow, the pirates game is skyrocketing in our favor by the minute. it might hit +170

Jibba · Apr 17, 2007

buffettgambler said:
When betting againt the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Braves and Cardinals, or betting on the Nats, Pirates, and Royals, try waiting as long as possible. It will earn you a lot of money over the course of the season.

Good luck today, and keep up the great work.

Yeah, it's definitely one of my weaknesses I'm finding. I just haven't been good at predicting line movement. And that continued today with the Bucs and the Tribe. Solid advice though. Always looking to learn and still a long way to go, but it's a hell of a ride.

finman13 · Apr 17, 2007

padres game down to -128. looking even juicier now. is there something i dont know or is it just cubs squares pounding

finman13 · Apr 17, 2007

on other game buffett id like your opinion on is the yanks game. wrights first start and he is a favorite against a good hitting lineup. i know westbrook isnt mister consistent, but this line seems a bit favorable

buffettgambler · Apr 17, 2007

finman13 said:
glad you are on the w sox. very good value to me. like the buccos as well at that price. little leary now on the giants game as i was on the padres last night. i might wait on that one. good writeups as usual. i think padres today offer a good value. maddux has owned his former team. cubs are banged up with 2 of their 3 best hitters out today i presume. also facing a struggling pitcher in w miller. all of that being said and the padres are only -136 at my book.

also dont think you will see jered weaver at almost an underdog the rest of the year. i know he has been out, but i dont have a reason to believe he wont come out mowing down a week lineup in a pitchers park. im guessing buffett you are staying away from this line because its his first start? what about the padres

Ya, the Angels game is a tough game to value. Hard to know what to expect out of Weaver first time out, and he will be on a really short pitch count. I also still need to see Gaudin a couple more times out of the starting role until I can feel comfortable valuing him in a particular game.

When dealing with big name, short term injuries in the likes of Soriano and Ramirez, the injuries have the tendency to be over quantified. The line movement adjustment actually over reflects their absence, especially in this match up where neither hitter matches up terribly well with Maddux's style of pitching. That said, I value the Padres at -112/ Cubs +112, so I see no value either way.

Good luck.

finman13 · Apr 17, 2007

correction , a couple of other games. bjays and chacin were 4-0 against sox last year with the same key players. nice underdog at home. also, are you handicapping belisle for the reds yet? i think the reds sticks, albeit not the best lineup in the majors, might get bush out by the 5th

trains40 · Apr 17, 2007

Wow Everyone On The Pirates Today Gl Everyone.

BaseballMadness · Apr 17, 2007

GL buffettgambler

buffettgambler · Apr 17, 2007

finman13 said:
correction , a couple of other games. bjays and chacin were 4-0 against sox last year with the same key players. nice underdog at home. also, are you handicapping belisle for the reds yet? i think the reds sticks, albeit not the best lineup in the majors, might get bush out by the 5th

The public is pounding Matsusaka since the open and will continue to do so throughout the day. It is creating value on the other side, and is reaching the point to where they might warrant a play. I valued the Blue Jays at +125 and would enter a position on them at +153. It might reach that some time during the day. Both Glauss and Ryan's injuries are two injuries that definitely depreciate the Blue Jays value, and Chacin is a concern. But almost whenver you bet agianst the Red Sox, you know you are getting a fair price. I am keeping my eye out on this game.

I valued the Reds at -121. This game appears to be efficiently priced. I have been bearish on the Reds all year, and have had them overvalued almost every game. I guess I think highly of Belisle compared to the general public.

finman13 · Apr 17, 2007

thanks buffett, gl everyone

Jibba · Apr 17, 2007

finman13 said:
correction , a couple of other games. bjays and chacin were 4-0 against sox last year with the same key players. nice underdog at home. also, are you handicapping belisle for the reds yet? i think the reds sticks, albeit not the best lineup in the majors, might get bush out by the 5th

Beware of that record against the Sox (I believe it's 5-0 lifetime). It's extremely deceiving. In his 7 starts against the Sox, he's got an average run support of almost 10. He likely won't get that tonight. And he's got a BAA of .292. That's insane. Have a few other stats in my thread but can't think of them off the top of my head. They're pretty ugly though.

As for the Reds, just my $.02 but I lean toward the Brewers. Bush is a solid pitcher and I don't expect Belisle to continue his hot run. But won't touch it if the line doesn't move a bit more.

And BG, just curious but do you ever consider adding onto a play if the line continues to move in your favor, such as the Pirates game? I hate having a "bad line" but almost never add on once I've locked in.

buffettgambler · Apr 17, 2007

Jibba said:
And BG, just curious but do you ever consider adding onto a play if the line continues to move in your favor, such as the Pirates game? I hate having a "bad line" but almost never add on once I've locked in.

No, over the years, I have generated a pretty good feeling where future line movement is going to be, so I don't get burned much by future line movement. I actually didn't bet the Pirates until five minutes before the game started, and got a much better price than what a I posted. Adding onto an already filled posistion just because of a few more basis points is not something I would reccommend.

Jibba · Apr 17, 2007

buffettgambler said:
No, over the years, I have generated a pretty good feeling where future line movement is going to be, so I don't get burned much by future line movement. I actually didn't bet the Pirates until five minutes before the game started, and got a much better price than what a I posted. Adding onto an already filled posistion just because of a few more basis points is not something I would reccommend.

Yeah, I know what you're saying. It's tough at times to fight off that little voice bitching about the "bad line" but in my experience (which is far less than yours), it's rarely a good idea. Even with the 5-0 lead now, I don't regret not adding on. But if I had added on and it was the other way around, boy I'd be kicking myself.