Bookie Buster Tuesday Service Plays, SDS Spreadsheet

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

Links are provided in the following posts for the most recently updated spreadsheets.
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First Group Notes:<o></o>
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Hondo 8~3 (73%) and Larry Ness 8~3 (71%) have taken the lead atop of the spreadsheet based both upon overall winning percentage and total number of tracked plays. Note: Play only the Larry Ness paid plays…..and definitely avoid his Bonus Plays, which are clearly marked “FREE” and are featured on the FADE spreadsheet at 1~6 (14%).
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Just behind them is the rock solid Billy Coleman 15~6 (71%) who has been a mainstay fixture so far on the leader board (he has been at the top or near the top from the very beginning).
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PPP actually has two rankings at the top of the leader board, featuring “full game” plays 12~6 (67%) and “5-Inning” plays 8~4 (67%).
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Second Group Notes:<o></o>
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Stan Sharp has been hot, hot, hot! His only play was postponed (PP) yesterday, so we have to wait another day to see if his streak continues. He leads the second group with a 7~1 record (88%!!) and will be probably leading the first group once he gets over the “ten tracked plays” criteria I have set for the first group occupants.
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Power Play of the Day will also soon be joining and maybe leading the first group. They had won five plays in a row before faltering a couple of days ago, but as predicted yesterday, they rebounded with another win taking them to 6~1 (83%).
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Fades:<o></o>
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There are definitely some good fades to be had as well….check out the spreadsheet and look not only at the overall records and winning percentages….but also at guys who have had four or five losing days in a row (i.e., Russ Culver, who has not had a winning day since the beginning of the very first week of the season!!)

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

Updated Spreadsheet

The most recently updated spreadsheet:

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

Updated FADE Spreadsheet

The most recently updated "FADE" spreadsheet:

trains40 · Apr 17, 2007

Can Someone Tell Me How To Read These Please? SORRY I FIGURED IT OUT JUST BREAKDOWN OF CAPPERS.

sawastea · Apr 17, 2007

Basically, it's a list of the hot and cold cappers. Their games for the past few weeks and the 'total' record, below their daily record.

trains40 · Apr 17, 2007

Thanks Sawastea

nikeairx · Apr 17, 2007

how do u read these picks like which ones are good

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

Billy Coleman

4* Det/Kc under 8 w/Marouth/DeLaRossa
3* Cinn w/Belisle
3* Atlanta+125

Big Al (MLB Division Game of the Month)

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Take the A's

Stu Feiner<o

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1000 Redsox

LT Profits

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San Diego Padres (-115)

Larry Ness Daytime Delight<o

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My Daytime Delight is on the SD Padres at 2:20 ET. The Padres took all seven games from the Cubs last year but Chicago won 12-4 Monday, in the first meeting of 2007. It was not all good news for the Cubs however, as Alfonso Soriano ($136 million contract) strained his left hamstring while attempting a diving catch. While he has not gotten off to a fast start, his loss is NOT a good thing. The Cubs should also be worried about Wade Miller, today's starting pitcher. In his season debut for the Cubs (facing Milwaukee on April 8), Miller lasted just four innings and was reached for six runs and nine hits in a 9-4 loss. Miller averaged 15 wins/season with Houston from 2001-03, but missed almost all of last year recovering from shoulder surgery. He made five starts in September and October, going 0-2 with a 4.57 ERA, but hasn't won since beating Kansas City on Aug. 3, 2005 while with Boston. Miller is making his fifth career start against the Padres and first since September 2003. He's 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA against them and has given up six homers in 23.1 innings. Going for the Padres is ex-Cub Greg Maddux, coming off his 334th career win, beating the Giants 4-0 last Wednesday. He's always pitched well against his former team, with a lifetime mark of 11-3 with a 2.38 ERA. Daytime Delight on the SD Padres.

Gator E-Report

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MLB (Tuesday) Play Under MLB road teams when the total is 9 to 9.5 with an AL team whose batting average is <=.265 facing a team with a bullpen whose ERA is <=3.75 and their bullpen's ERA is 3.33 or better on the season.
(48-17 since 1997.) (73.8%)

PLAY: Boston / Toronto UNDER 9 (-125)

Matt Fargo

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Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Tampa Bay had a win wrapped up on Monday until the bullpen came in and blew the game as Jae Kuk Ryu gave up three straight doubles on eight pitches to take the loss. The bullpen has had its issues but the starting pitching came in with a 6.36 ERA and that has been the big problem but Tuesday, that should turn around. The Orioles have now won four straight games but three of those were against the Royals so the play against angle is thrown out here. Baltimore has owned the series but three of the Devils Rays wins have come with tonight’s starter on the hill. The Devil Rays hopefully will not need the bullpen on Tuesday as Casey Fossum takes the mound coming off a great performance against Minnesota. He allowed just two runs in seven innings against the Twins and returns home where he was lit up in his first start this season against Toronto. The good news is that against Baltimore, he is 3-0 with a 3.44 ERA in three career home starts while with Tampa Bay. Baltimore is hitting only .224 on the road against left-handed pitching and it is 1-3 on the season against lefty starters. Steve Trachsel has gotten rejuvenated in Baltimore as he has pitched two great games to start the year. Both were quality starts and because of that he falls into a play against angle. He is a Class C pitcher and the rule is to go against this class after two or more consecutive quality starts. For these lower-tiered hurlers to get three straight quality starts is extremely difficult. He has started hot in April but he has never been a good April road pitcher. His teams are just 4-20 against the money line in road games in April games since 1997. Even in the loss on Monday, Tampa Bay hit the ball well but couldn’t come through with the clutch hits as it left 24 men on base. The Devil Rays have scored five or more runs seven times this season including three straight and will be the first to get to Trachsel this year. As mentioned, the Orioles are 1-3 against lefty starters and are now 18-36 against the money line against left -handed starters over the last two seasons. Tampa Bay gets that loss back here to tie up the series.

Play Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1 Unit

Dave Cokin

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(917) CLE Indians and (918) NY Yankees.

Pick: (918) NY Yankees

Jim Feist

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(915) LA Dodgers and (916) ARI D'backs. Take "(916) ARI D'backs". The Dodgers head out on the road after a long home stand. The pitching staff has been fortunate to play almost all its games in pitcher-friendly parks. Except the opening series, where they were in Milwaukee and got blasted the first two games, losing by a combined 11-4. Now they head into Arizona's indoor facility. 34-year old Brett Tomko has average stuff and last season he was great at home, in spacious Dodger stadium, but awful on the road at 3-5 with a 6.89 ERA. Arizona starter Micah Owings has pitched great, with a 1.59 ERA in 11 IP. This is the 7th straight home game for Arizona.

Play the Diamondbacks!

Hondo (13-2 run!)

Minnesota Twins

Scott Spreitzer's (1st MLB Heavy Hitter of 2007!)

My MLB Heavy Hitter is a play on the Diamondbacks with Owings over Tomko. The Dodgers won the first of the two-game set behind a strong pitching performance from Brad Penny. But Tomko is no Brad Penny away from home. In fact, the Dodger righty was lit up like a Christmas Tree away from home last season with an ERA just under 7.00! Tomko was relegated to a relief role after falling apart in June and after spending some time on the DL. But by September he had lost a lot of his velocity and couldn't retire anyone. He's best suited for relief work at this point. Fortunately for us, he'll start tonight. I believe Tomko's low strikeout rate will haunt him in the desert. Arizona will counter with Micah Owings. The righty brings a mid-90s fastball and a hard-breaking slider. He owns a 1.06 WHIP and 1.59 ERA in two starts this season. He's part of the young, yet ultra-talented youth movement in Arizona that should keep them in the pennant race all season. The D-backs began the series as the league's top money-making team, betting wise. Look for a return towards the top with a bounce-back win tonight. Arizona is my MLB Heavy Hitter.

Karl Garret

50 DIMES SF Giants
10 DIMES Baltimore Orioles
10 DIMES Cleveland Indians

Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week
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(Now 12-1 with 15* GOW plays in MLB '07!)

My 15* play is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. I'm not buying Milwaukee's 4-2 start away from Miller Park in 2007, as the Brewers owned MLB's third-worst road record in 2006, at 27-54. Milwaukee's starter tonight, Dave Bush, mirrored his team's record last year, as he posted a solid 3.23 ERA in Miller Park with the Brewers winning 12 of his 15 starts (Mil was 48-33 at home LY). However, in his 17 road starts, Bush posted a 5.38 ERA, as the Brewers went 4-13. I realize that in two starts TY, he pitched poorly at home and pitched well on the road but it's only TWO starts! Again, I don't believe the Brewers will be a good road team TY! Milwaukee exploded for 11 hits and 10 runs last night but remember, even with that outburst, the team is averaging just 4.67 runs per game, including just 4.33 in road contests in 2007. Matt Belisle of the Reds has spent his short career as a reliever but worked his way into the Reds rotation this spring. In two starts this year, he's 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA, as opponents are batting just .171 against him. Expect the Brewer bats to be quiet tonight and for the Reds to win going away. NL Game of the Week 15* Cin Reds.

Big Al's MLB Division Game of the Month
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At 10:05 pm our AL West Game of the Month is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels. One of last year's hottest young pitchers, Angel righthander Jered Weaver, will finally get his first start of the season. Weaver had missed the first 2 weeks of the season due to a biceps injury, but is apparently ready to make his 2007 debut. He had a very impressive rookie season with an almost perfect 1st half (6-0 with a 1.12 ERA before the break) but appeared to tire a bit down the stretch (9 ER in his last 14 1/3 innings pitcheed). Oakland righthander Chad Gaudin had not started since 2005, but back then he was a member of the Blue Jays and he was not a very effective starter. But he's replaced the injured Esteban Loaiza in the Oakland rotation, and has been a pleasant surprise for the A's this season. So far Gaudin has a 2.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. And although his record is 0-2 in his two starts, the A's have won both of those outings. Oakland is 36-15 in its last 51 games as a PK or favorite and the Angels' best player, Vladimir Guerrero, is questionable to play due to a wrist injury. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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LT Lock

OVER 9 REDS

Larry Ness 15* NL GOW
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REDS

Cappers Access

Padres
Twins

Culver Baseball

Pirates +155
San Diego-Chicago UNDER 8 -110 (Maddux-Miller)

Jared Klein (Comp)

Arizona -110

The Arizona Diamondbacks continue this short two game series at home tonight against the L.A. Dodgers. Brett Tomko got off to a fantastic start to the season throwing six shutout innings and striking out nine. Let’s remember that this took place at home though. Tomko has been a completely different story on the road. Last season was a nightmare for him on the road with a 6.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.49. Batters were also hitting .307 against him all season. Micah Owings has been fantastic during his two starts this season throwing 11 innings and giving up only two runs while striking out 11. He has a 1.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.06 and batters are struggling to hit for average against him with a .195 batting average. Look for Tomko to continue his struggles tonight on the road against the surprising Diamondbacks. Take Arizona. Recommendation: Arizona

Randall Handle (RTH)

Minnesota –1.01 over Seattle

Ramon Ortiz has gotten is groove back, as he’s now 2-0 with an ERA of 1.80. He’s pitched seven full innings in both his starts and that includes an eight inning, 3-hit performance against the Yanks. Ortiz has struck out eight and walked just two and has yet to give up a long ball. Ortiz was once a cornerstone pitcher for the Dodgers but he’s had his problems over the years, However, his new surroundings and playing for a contender has seemed to really lift his spirits and ability and pitching at Safeco Field tonight can only make him feel more confident. For the Mariners, it’ll be 8-million a year man Jeff Weaver. Man, eight mill sure doesn’t buy you what it used to. Anyway, Weaver was knocked out in the second inning in his first start as a Mariner after getting ripped apart by the Red Sox to th tune of seven hits and seven runs. Not that that should surprise anyone because Weaver has a career ERA in April of 6.57. Oh, and at Safeco Field, his career ERA is 7.11. So, yeah, the Mariners made a nice investment, similar to the one Enron investor’s made. Play: Minnesota –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

L.A. Angels –1.02 over Oakland

The A’s Chad Gaudin is a reliever turned starter and while his numbers look pretty nice thus far the dangers signs are evident. Gaudin has trouble finding the strike zone, as his 83 walks in 170 major league innings would attest to. Last year, strictly as a reliever he walked 42 batters in 64 innings. In his last start he walked three in five innings. In Gaudin’s brief career the opposition has hit .280 off him and remember that’s as a short reliever in which he’s asked to pitch to just two or three hitters. The Angels saw him once already this year and that’s good enough for us. Jered Weaver, the brother of Jeff will make his season debut in this one after starting the year on the rack with tendonitis. After being called up from the minors in late May last year, Weaver went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 19 starts for the Angels. He also said on the team’s web site that he hasn’t felt any pain for a month and is more then ready to go. Gaudin favored over Weaver is incorrect. Play: L.A. Angels –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Los Angeles +1.03 over Arizona

Not many teams are sharper then the Dodgers these days and it seems like when this intruder gets a lead they don’t give it up. Furthermore, Brett Tomko is coming off a six-inning, one hit performance against the Rockies in which he struck out nine batters. Micah Owings looks like a keeper for the Snakes, as he’s been solid in two starts. However, that was against the Nationals and Reds and he’ll find the Dodgers batters to be much tougher then those two groups. Besides, the Dodgers have won nine of 11 and taking back a small tag on them here just makes sense. Play: Los Angeles +1.03 (Risking 2 units).

LT Profits

San Diego Padres (-115)

Whale Report

30 Bagger NY Yankees & Cleveland over 10
30 Bagger Minnesota & Seattle over 8 ½
30 Bagger Parlay Boston with Detroit

ATS Financial

3 units on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (-110) over the Baltimore Orioles, 7:00
3 units on the Arizona D-Backs (-110) over LA Dodgers, 9:40

Gold Key Games<o

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Silver Key (Bonus Play): Houston Astros - OSWALT - (-195)

SCOTTSPICKS

Bonus Plays:
Colorado Rockies -110

Sebastian Sports
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San Diego (-125)

Tony Onio

500? Yankee OVER
200? SF. Giants

Will Cover

3 Arizona Diamondbacks

Triple Crown

3 Colorado UNDER
3 Arizona UNDER
3 Cleveland
3 Toronto
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RAYMOND

Padres med to strong
Reds avg
Mets avg
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EAST COAST SPORTS

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4* cards -160
3* sd –115
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Brian James (Comp)
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Chicago Cubs +103
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Derek Reed (Comp)

Florida Marlins +185

Chad Jordan

Match up: Boston at Toronto
Prediction: Boston Red Sox -145 W/ Matsuzaka
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Donald Tran

Matchup: Texas at Chicago
Prediction: Texas Rangers +120
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Jennifer Barry

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Matchup: San Francisco at Colorado
Prediction: San Francisco -105 W/ Cain

WUNDERDOG

Game: Boston at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Boston –152
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Chacin has lived a charmed life over the past three seasons. The Jays have averaged seven runs a game in his home starts. Last year they did even better providing him with more runs at home than any other pitcher in baseball as they plated nine runs a game. He finished the year with a 6-1 record at home, but a 6.06 ERA! Pitchers with a 6+ ERA don't get many chances to keep pitching and in his first start this year he is hovering in the same area 5.40, but again he was rewarded with seven runs from his offense. Matsusaka takes the hill for the Sox and the Jays will be hard pressed to supply the runs needed here. Matsusaka will pitch for seven innings and Papelbon to close will be a familiar story for Sox fans this year and tough to overcome for their opponents. Chacin is a horrible 3-9 when the Jays score four runs or less, and he has only made 13 quality starts in 26 opportunities. We would be surprised if the Jays reach four

Rocketman Sports (FREE Pick)<o></o>
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San Diego @ Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM EST
Play On: 1* San Diego -120 (Maddux/Miller) Listed

Stan Sharp - Triple Dime Play

Angels +100

RZ (Comp)

PADRES vs CHICAGO
Play

ADRES
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Doc Sports

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2* San Diego
2* Toronto
3* Minn

Curry Bagwell

San Diego -120

With the day game today, Padres rested starters Greene, Bard, Cameron and Kouzmanoff last night. Those are much needed bats today vs. Cubs RH Miller who last started on April 8th. Cubs are without Ramirez and Soriano who tweaked a hamstring last night. Cubs don't have the LH bats to match up with Maddux and if the game happens to be close through six innings Padres have the advantage from there.

Tampa -110

Orioles struggled vs. LH pitching a year ago and they are 1-3 in game started by a lefty this year. Dray Lefty Fossum was solid in his last start at Minn allowing 2 runs in 7 innings. Love this Dray lineup vs. RH Trachsel.

Arizona -110

Dodgers have never seen DBack rookie RH Micah Owings. Owings has 11 strikeouts in 11 innings this season with an ERA of 1.59. He compiled a 16.2 record in the minors with an ERA of 2.91. He will have the advantage the first two times through the order.

LA Angels -105

A's are at a major disadvantage vs. RH pitching when they do not have Harden or Haren going for them. They are 3-5 in games when they face a RH starter and two of those are 2-1 wins that their bullpen pulled out. Things are not going to change for them offensively until they get healthy. Angels have the bullpen to support Weaver who makes his seasonal debut and will be on a pitch count. Angels are the top play

Russ Culver

Sides

Nationals +185
Marlins +185
Indians +127
Royals +177
Blue Jays +142
Rangers +125
Angels -106
Mariners -106

Totals

Boston-Toronto UNDER 9 +105 (Matsuzaki-Chacin)

ATS Lock Club

4 units Texas Rangers
3 units Indians

M@linsky

4 San Diego
4 Toronto

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

nikeairx said:
how do u read these picks like which ones are good

To anyone new to this thread, here is a quick recap of what is going on here:
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With Bookie Buster’s permission, I am importing the baseball-related portion of the service plays that he posts over in the NBA forum. When the NBA season is over, BB will be posting these service plays over here in the bases forum.

I have been recording and tracking the bases service plays via Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. On the spreadsheet you will find each services daily record (when plays are available), as well as a running season record and an overall win percentage. However, there is zero consistency as to whose plays can be obtained on a daily basis. So I can only track what is provided, and when it is provided.

Note: BB shares whatever service plays he can obtain, there is no guarantee as to which services will bet available on a day-to-day basis. Therefore I can only track and record the ones that are provided. That’s why on my spreadsheet you will see “NA” marked on the days that plays were unable to be obtained. “PP” is marked when that service’s play for the day was post-poned.
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Note: Due to the irregularity of certain service plays (i.e., maybe we’ve only gotten a total of two plays all season from some) I am not tracking certain services.
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On the spreadsheet I have color-coded the daily records to reflect winning days (yellow), losing days (gray) and “even” days (no color at all).

I have the services ranked by their winning percentages. Furthermore, you will see three separate groups ranked by winning percentages. This is due to the total number of plays they have made on the season so far. Obviously I am less impressed with a guy who is 3-0 or 4-0 than I am with someone who is 11~3. I will constantly re-rank each service based on their updated winning percentages and they will drop or raise from group to group based upon their total number of plays.
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I also have made a distinction between “FREE”” or “COMP” plays and “PAID” or “PREMIUM” plays from the services that provide types of plays.
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I also have made a further distinction between “UNITS” or “TYPES” if plays if and when services routinely list their plays in consistently in this fashion. In a lot of cases I have used unit-ranges.
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As time passes, after everyone has been given enough time to prove consistency, I will begin to aggressively eliminate the services that prove to be neither a good tail nor a good fade….the goal is to have two spreadsheets with legitimate tails and fades. Services that prove to consistently be around 50% do us NO GOOD for either tails or fades.

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

More Service Plays from BB:

More Service Plays from Bookie Buster:

Golden Contender

5* Reds

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Brandon Lang

5 DIME Phillies - Specify Pitchers - Glavine vs Garcia
5 DIME Giants - Specify Pitchers - Cain vs Hirsch
5 DIME White Sox - Specify Pitchers - Tejada vs Garland

FREE Pick Arizona D'Backs

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

More from BB:

Sebastian

20* SD
10* ARIZONA
10* MINN
10* SF
7* CINN

gskiman · Apr 17, 2007

B.Coleman
3Atl +125 is NHL, not baseball.

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

gskiman said:
B.Coleman
3Atl +125 is NHL, not baseball.

Thanks. I didn't even notice that until you pointed it out. Very much appreciated. As you probably know, BB posts MLB, NBA, NHL and Horses. I pull out all the bases plays from his thread, but that one got past me and snuck in here.

sds23 · Apr 17, 2007

Spreadsheet Note: Going Forward

Spreadsheet Note: Going Forward

Tomorrow marks the last day on the first page of each of the two spreadsheets. After tomorrow (starting on Thursday) the spreadsheets will roll over to the next page ("Sheet 2").

A full history will always be kept for the entire season on the same spreadsheet. To scroll forward or backwards on the individual sheets, all you need to do is click on the "Sheet 1", "Sheet 2", "Sheet 3" (etc.) tabs located at the bottom of the spreadsheets.

Below is a link to today's spreadsheet (the same as the one posted earlier in this thread) with the dates for the rest of April (on "Sheet 2") and May ("Sheet 3") for anyone who wants to see how to scroll fowards or backwards on the spreadsheets now.

NOTE: I will always save the spreadsheets on the most current page / sheet featuring the most current set of dates and tracked service plays. I presume that the spreadsheets will open for you just I have saved them, therefore scrolling forwards or backwards will not be required unless you wish to do so.

Bookie Buster Tuesday Service Plays, SDS Spreadsheet

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