MLB: Wednesday April 18th Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

I may add plays later.

Angels @ A’s
Play: Angels +110
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +104
Comment:
There is no denying that Guerrero’s absence will hurt the Angels in this particular match up. In fact, it has a 7 cent change in my intrinsic value, which is probably the biggest intrinsic value change due to injury this season. However, I feel that I am being more than compensate (like most big name injuries) with the change in the market price. Haren is one of the underrated and consistent pitchers in baseball. He is also off to a solid start. However, the lack of run support that A’s dormant lineup has been giving their starting pitchers really diminishes the assets they bring to the table. Haren also struggled last year against the Angels, allowing 18 runs in just over 30 innings of work. Guerrero is not the only hitter on the Angels that has had past success against him, as there are three others that have hit him well in the past, while a couple other young bats that much up well against his style of pitching. Haren also struggles holding runners on, which could be a problem in this game against the Angels. Home field advantage is also minimized in this game, as neither pitcher has shown much of a preference pitching at home, while neither offense has hit much better at home the last couple of years either. The A’s have an elite bullpen, but this is one of the few series that they do not have much of an edge in the later innings thanks to their bullpen.

I really like how Lackey matches up against the A’s. He is an emotional pitcher that should thrive on redemption after getting in a fight with them last year. He has always dominated the A’s throughout his career, and has pitched even better against them since that incident. He is off to a solid start this season, which includes an excellent outing against them a couple of weeks ago, where he allowed just one run in seven innings of work. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have struggled against him in the past. Being backed by an elite bullpen should make it hard for the A’s to score throughout this game. Lackey was also one of the most dominant road and day game pitchers in baseball last year, two variables that should be working in his favor this game. The A’s have the worst lineup in the American League, and they have been playing like that all season. They make for a much more compelling bet later in the season when they have the tendency to turn it on.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

Mets @ Marlins
Play: Mets +110
Intrinsic Value: -113
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
This is another game in which home field advantage is minimized. The Mets are the best road hitting team in the league the last couple of years. Maine has actually pitched better on the road since joining the Mets. Willis has the propensity to over pitch during his home starts, and it has reflected in his numbers that last couple of years. The Marlins are another lineup that has been better hitting away from home as well. There is no denying that Willis makes for a tough match up against a left handed loaded lineup like the Mets. He dominated them last year. However, the addition of Alou, who has had past success against him and replacing Franco for Delgado should minimize the dominance Willis has over them. The absence of Lo Ducca will also not hurt too much, as Castro appears to be swinging the bat well and has had past success against Willis. The fact that the Mets have a couple of switch hitters on the team, allows them to counter southpaws better than most teams that are loaded from the left side. In fact, if Franco plays this game, the Mets will be putting six of their 8 hitters in which have had success against him, and the only two not considered having success against him, are coming into today’s game with a .260 or better average. The Mets are also solid at working opponents pitch count, and Willis is backed by a sub par bullpen.

I am doubtful that Maine will be able to continue to put forth the numbers that he has the last couple of years, but it is still quite evident linesmakers are not giving him the respect he deserves. I have no problem backing him when he is coming with value. Maine has been unhittable the last couple of years, and comes into today’s game with a career OBA of .225. His problem has been his lack of command, something that should be helped out by a young and impatient lineup like the Marlins. He has dominated both right and left handed hitters, which should allow him to counter the effects of the Marlins having balance in their lineup. He has shown an ability to pitch well on the road as well. the Marlins bats appear to be slowing down, as they have scored 1,3 and 4 runs in the last three games. Cabrera looks like he tweaked his back a couple of games ago, and has gone 0 for 11 since then. Being backed by a top tier bullpen should allow the Mets to have the advantage in the later innings.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays +125
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -103
Comment:
I have no idea why the Red Sox are favored in this game. Granted the Blue Jays are missing some key players, but they have been one of the most dangerous home lineups in baseball the last couple of years, while the Red Sox continue to not produce on the road. Wakefield performed really poorly on the road last year, including a poor outing in Toronto. Although he comes into today’s game with solid career numbers against the Blue Jays, he has never had success in this park, as his career ERA here is approaching five. There are a couple of hitters in today’s lineup that have proven capable of hitting the knuckleball, while Johnson’s injury in the long run will have a negative effect, it won’t in this game as he has never been able to hit the knuckleball.

There is no denying that Ohka has been getting progressively worse, but he is a better pitcher than the one his numbers of last year and the beginning of this year reflect. Today might be a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing, as he is up against a very mediocre road offense that has not seen much of him, giving him the advantage the first two go a rounds in the lineup. Yesterday was the third time out of seven road games in which the Red Sox lineup scored one run or less. Ryan’s injury might be a short term advantage, as his replacements have filled in rather nicely.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

Cubs @ Braves
Play: Cubs -106
Intrinsic Value: -134
Consider Betting Price: -116
Comment:
You have to like Zambrano in a bounce back spot following an outing where he mentally destructed on the mound. Pitching on the road may also be a good thing as emotions sometimes get the better end of him during his home starts. It has reflected in his numbers the last couple of years, and he was one of the most dominant road pitchers in baseball last year. It has been quite some time since the Braves have had a chance to see Zambrano, which does not bode well for them, as he is a pitcher that takes time getting used to. Two years ago was the last time they got to see him, and were only able to generate three hits in eight innings of work. Both Jones’s have not had past success against him, and his ability to dominate right handed hitters, allows him to match up well against a lineup like the Braves. Although the Cubs bullpen got in a lot of work yesterday, it may be problematic, as Zambrano has the ability to accumulate as high of a pitch count compared to any other pitcher in the league. The Braves are also a lineup not built to work pitch counts.

I feel that I am being overcompensated for Soriano’s injury, especially with the way he has been hitting. The Cubs still bring a stacked lineup to the table that is built to smack pitchers like Davies around the park. Although he is coming off a solid outing ten days ago, I do not expect those types of outings to last much longer. He simply lacks the consistency to be a solid pitcher. His inability to pitch both right and left handed hitters effectively does not bode well for him against this Cubs lineup who is are a threat from both the right and left side. He is also prone to the long ball, which is also a concern when going up against a lineup with power throughout the lineup. Although the Braves have a much improved bullpen, they are currently vulnerable in the front end now that Poranto and Cormier are on the DL. This does not bode well for them, as Davies is not known to go deep into games.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

Ranges @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -111
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:
Although I got burned on the White Sox last night, I have no problem going right back on them, as they appear to be coming with a lot of value now that they are currently out of favor by the public. I have been calling Buerhles demise for three years now. Now that it has come true and finally reflected in the market price, I am willing to back him. This holds especially true when going up against a team that he has had past success against. Buerhle is the exact pitcher you want going up against this powerful yet impatient lineup, as he forces you to swing at bad pitches. His finesse style of pitching continues to plague the Rangers team, as they have struggled against this type of pitching yet again this year. Buerhle has downright dominated Young and Blaylock, and has also had past success against a couple of their role players. Despite pitching in a hitters park, he has been much more effective pitching at home, as there is no denying that he has reached a comfort zone on his home mound.

Millwood is another pitcher in this game that is going to have trouble putting forth the numbers that he did in years past and also witnessed some regression last year. He has become more prone to allowing the long ball, which is not a deficiency you want when pitching in this park against a lineup which possesses the power in which the White Sox do. Millwood has not pitched nearly as well as his ERA would indicate. He has been very hittable, and has allowed a lot of long and well hit outs. He has been becoming less and less effective against right handed hitters, which does not bode well for him against a right handed dominated lineup.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

Twins @ Mariners
Play: Twins +208
Intrinsic Value +158
Consider Betting Price: +185
Comment:
I am well aware how good Hernandez is. In fact, I think he and Cain are currently the two hardest pitchers in baseball to get hits off of. However, the whole world now knows how good he is, and when that happens, value on the other side occurs almost 100% of the time. This is certainly the case in this game, as the Mariners are coming with a really inflated price tag. I would also much rather bet on Hernandez when up against a potent lineup. The reason being is that his success is not dependent on the quality lineup he is up against, rather how good he is that particular day. When on, no lineup in baseball could hit him, and he proved that to be the case in his last start. Therefore, there exists an embedded double counting effect in this game when he is up against a road lineup that has been known to struggle. Hernandez is also prone to a letdown spot in this game, following his bid for a no hitter on national television in his last start. Being a young pitcher, it is unknown how he handles situations like these. The Twins lineup is also streaky, and are coming off a game where they were seeing the ball really well. Hernandez has also shown a propensity to struggle against left handed hitting, and the Twins have their fair share of those. Being backed by a mediocre bullpen will give the Twins the advantage if and when the starters in this game leave.

Hernandez is not the only pitcher in this game that is off to a dominant start, as the same could be said for Silva. You know that his start holds substance when he pitched well in his first start against a team that has dominated him throughout the years inside a park that he has always been known to struggle. Although he is a much more effective pitcher at home, his problems of last year, allowing the long ball, should be helped out by this spacious park. The Mariners have been a more productive lineup on the road the last three years. They are also a lineup that Silva has dominated throughout his career, as he comes into today’s game with a career 2.41 ERA against them. He has had past success against the best hitters on the team. Being backed by the best and deepest bullpen in baseball is certainly a plus for an underdog this big.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

Pirates @ Brewers
Play: Pirates +123
Intrinsic Value: Pirates -102
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
No matter what team he has pitched for, Vargas has consistently struggled when pitching at home. In fact, he has been one of the worst home pitchers in baseball since coming to the big leagues, as he comes into today’s game with a career 5.68 home ERA. He has also struggled more during night games and early in the season, which are three variables that he will have to overcome if he wants to put forth a solid outing in this game. He has also become progressively less effective against right handed hitters throughout the years, which does not bode well when going up against the Pirates lineup. Although he has put forth solid numbers against the Pirates in the past, they potentially lack sustainability, as he has had success against only one hitter in today’s lineup. The addition of La Roche finally paid big dividends yesterday, and the Pirates are finally playing well on the road, which is a very good sign, as they were possibly the worst road team in baseball last year. The Brewers bullpen has been overworked of late, and Vargas has not been known to eat up innings.

Although Malholm has yet to put forth dominant outings, he is a young southpaw with solid upside potential. He has been plagued by a high walk total, a deficiency that should be helped out by going up against a free swinging lineup like the Brewers. He has dominated left handed hitters throughout his young career, which should curtail the power in the Brewers lineup. He has also had past success against the Brewers, coming into today’s game with 2.45 career ERA against them. Although he has been known to struggle on the road, in his two outings in this park, he was dominant. He is backed by an underrated and deep bullpen.

thecruncher · Apr 18, 2007

Woke up this morning and found out we had a winner on the Rockies, as I didn't bother to check in on them down 3-0 heading to the bottom of the 8th. Nice!

Jibba · Apr 18, 2007

Love the plays today BG. On or will be on all but 1 or 2 of them. Still waiting to see if the lines get better on the Mets, Angels, Twins and possibly Pitt. Can't bet against my Sox, but I'm not quite sure why they're favored either. I imagine the public sees this as a bounce back day.

Just curious, but do you have any thoughts on Baltimore or Colorado at + money? Orioles/D-Rays should be a good pitcher's battle, but I like getting + money with the better offense. The line will probably continue to rise to close to +130 with much of the public on Kazmir. Also not so sure LA should be favored over the Rockies with Lowe on the road, where he's never been particularly good. BOL.

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

thecruncher said:
Woke up this morning and found out we had a winner on the Rockies, as I didn't bother to check in on them down 3-0 heading to the bottom of the 8th. Nice!

From his first pitch to his last, I was counting Cain's pitches, just waiting for him to leave the game. I had a strong feeling that once the Giants bullpen came in, the Rockies bats would come alive.

Good luck today.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 18, 2007

+2.30 Yesterday

+17.64 YTD

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

Jibba said:
Love the plays today BG. On or will be on all but 1 or 2 of them. Still waiting to see if the lines get better on the Mets, Angels, Twins and possibly Pitt. Can't bet against my Sox, but I'm not quite sure why they're favored either. I imagine the public sees this as a bounce back day.

Just curious, but do you have any thoughts on Baltimore or Colorado at + money? Orioles/D-Rays should be a good pitcher's battle, but I like getting + money with the better offense. The line will probably continue to rise to close to +130 with much of the public on Kazmir. Also not so sure LA should be favored over the Rockies with Lowe on the road, where he's never been particularly good. BOL.

I haven't bet any of these games yet, as I try to wait for the last minute for underdog bets. Lines should continue to move.

As far as the Rockies go, I valued them at -100. Looks like a 50/50 game to me, and I wouldn't bet either team unless I get +120 or better.

I was hoping to see some value on the Devil Rays, as I really like Kazmir at home. But with the line set where it is, there is no value. I valued them at -128, which is right in line with the market price.

Good luck today.

Jibba · Apr 18, 2007

Love Kazmir as well, but think Bedard can be equally dominating at times. Appreciate the different perspective though. And definitely think we'll be rewarded for waiting on these games today.

finman13 · Apr 18, 2007

i think there are some tough games to handicapp today guys. i agree with buffett on bjays, cubs, w sox. pirates and mets are a bit iffy to me but appreciate the info on those games. if i play the a's/angels game i might be on the a's. as bad as the a's offense is the angels offense is minor league right now. they have nobody that scares anyone. they did nothing for weaver last night.

im also waiting for silva to show me one more quality start. however, id consider the twinkies if that line moves to +200, currently at +185 for me.

i got burned going against you buffett last night with the giants. was feeling good up 3-0. but, you were right on how that game would play out. great call!

im starting to look at totals a little more. hit the over in the yanks game yesterday. im currently on under 8 and the royals. currently 3 total hits in the top of the 6th. i waited til the last second on both and got meche at +190 and plus money on the under. public pounded the over and the tigers last 20 min. i thought meche +190 was great value.

i like harang and the reds tonight -130. the indians might be a decent play later once more money comes in on the yanks. im sure buffett you wont play htis game until you see igawa a bit more. might take the under in the drays game. day games tend to go under there with the bad lighting.

lastly, looking at the giants with morris facing his former team that is really struggling at the plate now. pretty cheap price against and inexperience pitcher. is bonds definitely playing?

buffettgambler · Apr 18, 2007

finman13 said:
i think there are some tough games to handicapp today guys. i agree with buffett on bjays, cubs, w sox. pirates and mets are a bit iffy to me but appreciate the info on those games. if i play the a's/angels game i might be on the a's. as bad as the a's offense is the angels offense is minor league right now. they have nobody that scares anyone. they did nothing for weaver last night.

im also waiting for silva to show me one more quality start. however, id consider the twinkies if that line moves to +200, currently at +185 for me.

i got burned going against you buffett last night with the giants. was feeling good up 3-0. but, you were right on how that game would play out. great call!

im starting to look at totals a little more. hit the over in the yanks game yesterday. im currently on under 8 and the royals. currently 3 total hits in the top of the 6th. i waited til the last second on both and got meche at +190 and plus money on the under. public pounded the over and the tigers last 20 min. i thought meche +190 was great value.

i like harang and the reds tonight -130. the indians might be a decent play later once more money comes in on the yanks. im sure buffett you wont play htis game until you see igawa a bit more. might take the under in the drays game. day games tend to go under there with the bad lighting.

lastly, looking at the giants with morris facing his former team that is really struggling at the plate now. pretty cheap price against and inexperience pitcher. is bonds definitely playing?

Nice comments. Appreciate your insight.

Bonds usually rests on days following travel. With a day game tommorrow, there is no doubt he will be out one of these games. He was taken out early to rest yesterday. With RHP in both games, its hard to say.

finman13 · Apr 18, 2007

well, ill wait on that giants game. if bonds is a no go, that is a no play:+) had to take a half play on the under in the a's game. really seems like 2-1 maybe 3-2 game, especially a day game. both starters i are nails. 2 great bullpens and 2 offenses in a pitchers park. just cant see many runs:+) gl the rest of the day guys

finman13 · Apr 18, 2007

oh and thanx buffett. cant be a total leech off your well thought out analysis.

sooner · Apr 18, 2007

Buffett,

You say you haven't played any of the games you listed as Play.
Does that mean you are changing your mind, as the LAA game has already started. Was waiting to see if you were going to play them and have not seen if you did. :think2:

Thanks and :lolBIG:

finman13 · Apr 18, 2007

jibba, digging a little deeper in the dodgers game, i dont think id like taking the rockies in this spot. yes, lopez pitched well against the dodgers earlier, but the dodgers have awoken since then. playing great ball right now and are clearly the better team imo. however, id take a look at the over in this game as i dont expect either pitcher to diminate. both teams have sticks that have spanked the opposing pitcher in their career, add that to the fact that lowe struggles on road over 9.5 -120 seems good.

Jibba · Apr 18, 2007

sooner said:
Buffett,

You say you haven't played any of the games you listed as Play.
Does that mean you are changing your mind, as the LAA game has already started. Was waiting to see if you were going to play them and have not seen if you did. :think2:

Thanks and :lolBIG:

He makes them official as far as his Rx record. He posts them with the current lines at the time of posting so he's sure to get them in. After that, he just waits until some point before game time to get the best line without having to worry about posting last minute. Hope this helps.