ATP Picks 4-18-07 (6-3-1, +$270)

ATP · Apr 18, 2007

1. Tampa Bay (Kazmir -128) bodog

I know that Bedard has had great success in the past against the Drays and Kazmir has had his problems but this Devil Ray team is playing with confidence, its not the same team were accustomed to seeing. They are 3-1 this year against Lefties, losing one earlier in this series not due to lack of scoring but the bullpen being unable to hold it. Kazmir should go deep enough for this to not be a problem. While Tb has been great vs lefties Baltimore is only 1-4 in this area and they face one of the best in the league today. The O's are just 2-7 as a dog. Ill jump on TB today.

2. Oakland/LAA UNDER 7 -105

This game has a great chance of ending before the 3oclock game with these two hurlers. They squared off once this year already with the Angels winning 2-1. The two teams have played 5 unders in a row all of which were this season. The angels are the lowest scoring team in the league and Oakland is the 2nd lowest scoring team, and with bats going against much better than average pitchers today this could be one of those 2-0 or 2-1 type ballgames. The angles games this year have gone 3-10-1 in favor of the under and Oaklands games 2-10-1 in favor of the under. All signs say low score today.

YTD: (6-3-1) +$270 :103631605

192/150 TB
210/200 Under in Oakland

Will post late games later

ATP · Apr 18, 2007

thats how you start a game rocco!

ATP · Apr 18, 2007

1-1 in the early games up $8, try to do better with these

3. Cleveland/NYY OVER 10 (-130, bodog)

Hard for me not to go for the Indians straight up but the Yankees offense is hard to bet against. I havent seen anything out of Igawa that leads me to believe that he can shutdown the indians, going only 5 innings in both big league starts and not looking very sharp. I like Sowers quite a bit and his one career start vs the Yanks was good but they might just be too potent right now with Doug Minkewitz hitting bombs and clevelands bullpen was spent last night. The total has gone over in this series 4 games in a row. I just dont see these guys going deep enough into the ballgame to keep hittable bullpens out of the game.

4. Philadelphia -154

This may just be what the doctor ordered for the phillies who have struggled at 3-9 in the early season meeting a team that hasnt averaged 3 runs a game this year. The Phillies offense usually shows up with the problem being pitching but this washington lineup looks like a bargain for Eaton, who pitched poorly vs atlanta then was lights out against the mets going 7 strong in a 5-2 victory.

130/100 NYY OVER
154/100 Phillies

bback with 730 and later games in a moment

ATP · Apr 18, 2007

5. LAD/COL OVER 9.5 -120

Never been high on Rodrigo Lopez, went 6 solid earlier this season giving up only one run to LA but that game was in LA when they were struggling to hit the ball. Of late LA has been an offensive machine, scoring 6, 5, 9, 2, and 9 in their last 5 with the 2 run performance vs Jake Peavy, this is no Jake Peavy and this is Coors Field. Colorodo hasnt been scoring as much and Lowe has been studly in his last two outings but the Colorodo hitters have had some success against him and the total in this series with games being played in Colorodo has gone over 5 games in a row. 17 of Colorodo's last 22 games played at home have gone over as well. Expecting Rodrigo to come down to earth in the mountains of Colorodo and Lowe to give up a few I expect this to go over the total.

6. Seattle -220

All signs point to Seattle in this one after losing the opener in embarresing fashion by a score of 11-2 and going against Santana tommorrow. They need to get their groove going tonight to hold off a possible sweep. There has been no better pitcher in baseball to this point then Sir Felix Hernandez going 2-0 pitching 17 innings and giving up 0 runs, along with upstaging Matsuska on his big night. Silva has been good this year but his career numbers are not as striking as Hernandez against the opposing team. Felix has gone 30 innings and given up 6 runs to Minnesota while Silva has gone 21 innings over his last three games vs seattle and given up 9 runs. It looks like lock city on the M's tonight.

120/100 Colorodo OVER
220/100 Seattle:toast: