Important Note:
Important Note:
Due to job travel this afternoon, I will be unable to repost Bookie Buster's Service Play until I return home. I hoping to be home by 5:00 Central Time, but this could vary depending on various factors.
I apologize about the inconvenience.
Please visit Bookie Buster's Service Play thread on the NBA Hoops Forum today.
He usually posts the service plays around 3:00 PM Central Time or so.
If I get home later than anticipated today I will not be reposting the service plays (since it will be too close to the time of the first evening games). But if I get home by 5:00 or earlier I will certainly repost them all here ASAP. :smoking:
Important Note:
Due to job travel this afternoon, I will be unable to repost Bookie Buster's Service Play until I return home. I hoping to be home by 5:00 Central Time, but this could vary depending on various factors.
I apologize about the inconvenience.
Please visit Bookie Buster's Service Play thread on the NBA Hoops Forum today.
He usually posts the service plays around 3:00 PM Central Time or so.
If I get home later than anticipated today I will not be reposting the service plays (since it will be too close to the time of the first evening games). But if I get home by 5:00 or earlier I will certainly repost them all here ASAP. :smoking:
Service Plays from BB:
Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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(I made it back in time to post before the evening games begin)<o></o>
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Coaches Corner
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953 Phil Phillies -143 04/18/07 5
955/956 unHou/Cin 9 04/18/07 4
959 Pit Pirates +123 04/18/07 5
Ben Burns
Twins at Mariners
Prediction: 'Under'
After nearly pitching a no-hitter versus the Red Sox in his last start, the word is out on Felix Hernandez. The Seattle star, who has yet to give up a run this season, was a slight favorite in his first start and an underdog in his last. He's nearly a 2-1 favorite today though, and is no longer offering any "line value." While some of the value has also been lost on the 'under' with Hernandez on the hill, I still feel that it's the correct way to go today. While nobody can top Hernandez's 0.00 ERA and 0.471 ERA, Silva's numbers aren't too shabby either. Indeed, Silva has a 0.77 ERA through his two starts! Not surprisingly, both starters have seen the 'under' go 2-0 thus far. Both starters have also fared extremely well versus today's opponent. Silva is 3-1 and has a stellar 2.75 ERA (1.222 WHIP) versus the Mariners while Hernandez is 2-1 with a miniscule 1.80 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in four starts versus the Twins. Three of those four games fell below the 'total' and this one should too. Look for another pitchers' duel and consider a play on the 'under'
Dennis Macklin
Astros at Reds
Prediction: Reds
The Reds Adam Harang doesn't have good numbers (5.40 ERA, 23 hits in 16+ innings) but he is 3-0 picking up 18 runs in support. He faces spot starter Chris Sampson for the Astros, who is perfect in eight innings work allowing just six hits. But he is unlikely to go more than five or six innings tops. That's not good news after Cincinnati pounded Houston pen for seven runs in the final two innings last night. The Reds have battered right-handed pitching and are 6-1 this year with that angle. Harang won his last three starts against Houston in '06 allowing just six earned in 22 innings work with an impressive 3-16 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Take the Reds.
Alex Smart
Rangers at White Sox
Prediction: 'Under'
Kevin Millwood, the Rangers' starting pitcher tonight against the Chicago White Sox, enters this contest in top form winning his last two starts while garnering a stable 3.00 ERA. The veteran righty in five career starts versus the ChiSox has been almost un-hittable as evidenced by a 1.32 ERA including a 0.75 ERA at US Cellular Field. His pitching opponent from the South Siders, southpaw Mark Buehrle, started slow in his last outing but progressively became dominant retiring 17 of the last 18 batters he has faced. Buehrle is 8-3 along with a tight 3.29 ERA against the Rangers in his career and owns a respectable 3.75 lifetime ERA at US Cellular. Considering the current form and overall history off both hurlers, recommending the 'under' makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Final notes and trends: Millwood has gone 'under' is 12 of his last 16 road starts. The 'under' is 9-2-1 in Buehrle's last 12 starts with the 'total' between 9 and 10 1/2. Play the 'under'.
Larry Ness
NY Mets
Brandon Lang
20 DIME
Marlins - Specify Pitchers - Maine vs Willis
10 DIME
Angels - Specify Pitchers - Lackey vs Haren
Giants - Specify Pitchers - Keisler vs Morris
Orioles - Specify Pitchers - Bedard vs Kazmir
5 DIME
Padres - Specify Pitchers - Webb vs Wells
Mariners -1 1/2 Runs - Specify Pitchers - Silva vs Hernandez
Paul Leiner
5 Star Royals +180
Russ Culver
Royals +180
LA-Oakland UNDER 7 1/2 -110 (Lackey-Haren)
Scott Spreitzer
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Angels
LT Lock
Giants
Jim Feist
The Mets at Marlins may feature two young pitchers on the mound, but one is a seasoned veteran, the other a relative kid. NY starter John Maine has a good ERA, but his other numbers are not good: 8 walks in 11 innings, 14 total base runners. Walking batters is dangerous for pitchers and Maine is in dangerous territory. And he'll be facing a Marlins team that is tops in the NL in batting. Florida has no such worries with ace Dontrelle Willis (3-0, 3.32 ERA). He has walked 4 in 19 innings with 17 Ks. How is he in his career against the Mets? 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA
Pick: Marlins
Hondo
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Boston Red Sox
Red Zone (Comp)
Detroit Tigers
Cappers Access
Angels
White Sox
LT Lock
Giants
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (2nd TY / 20-6 start in MLB '07!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Fla Marlins at 7:05 ET. The Mets were the NL's best team during last year's regular season and they may own that distinction again in 2007, but this is not a good spot for them. The Marlins opened 2006 by going 2-13 at Dolphin Stadium but went 40-26 to finish the year at home. Tonight, they send Dontrelle Willis to the mound, who is looking to become MLB's first four-game winner. I like his chances. He's a remarkable 12-1 in career starts during April, not to mention 11-2 in 16 career starts vs the Mets (Marlins are 13-3). That's his most wins against any club and his 2.02 ERA vs New York also represents his lowest ERA against any team. The Mets will counter with John Maine and while Maine has posted a 1.54 ERA in two starts this year, he hasn't pitched since April 9, because of numerous postponements. In his last start, although he gave up just two runs, it shouldn't go unnoticed that he allowed five hits and six walks in just 4.2 innings! Las Vegas Insider on the NY Mets.
Larry Ness' 15* Bailout GOW (13-1 to open MLB '07 with 15* GOW plays!)
My 15* play is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET. Matt Morris spent his first eight seasons with the Cards, going 111-62. He struggled with the Giants in 2006, going 10-15 with a 4.98 ERA. He's gotten off to a solid start in 2007 though, going 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA. The Cards have really struggled in Busch, as yesterday's home loss to the Pirates left them 1-6 at home to open 2007. The Cards have gone 5-1 on the road but that doesn't inspire any confidence in them for me in this spot. Lefty Randy Keilser takes the mound for the Cards (stepping into Carpenter's spot in the rotation) and since making 10 starts in 2001 with the Yankees, has made just SEVEN starts since, including one start this year at Pittsburgh (April 10). The Cards are just not hitting (see Pujols at 8-of-50 for a .160 BA), averaging 3.15 runs per game. Morris has always been known as a home pitcher, as these last six years, his teams (Cards and Giants) have gone 66-36 in his home starts and just 48-50 in his road starts. After two poor starts against his ex-team last year (0-2, 6.75), look for Morris to pitch well here and for the Giant bats to get to Keisler, a poor replacement for Chris Carpenter.
Bailout GOW 15* SF Giants.
Big Al's Baseball Underdog Winner -- 80% This Year
At 10:15pm our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Francisco Giants. The Cardinals are off to a 6-7 start, the worst record for a defending world series champion since the 1997 Florida Marlins. The good news for St. Louis is that it is about to play a 2 game series against the 4-8 San Francisco Giants. If you look up the word "journeyman" in the dictionary, you will see Cardinals lefthander Randy Keisler. Since breaking into the Majors in 2000, Keisler has been with 5 different teams in 6 years. Keisler is being asked to fill in for Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter, on the DL with an injured elbow, and he already has his first win of the season, having gone 6 innings, giving up only 2 earned runs in a win against the Pirates. The Giants are 1-9 in their last 10 home games and 6-20 in their last 26 games on grass. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NBA Game of the Month tonight or my other two plays in baseball & basketball
Big Al's MLB Totals Winner--100% This Year
At 8:05pm our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers 'over' the total. The Pirates had high hopes for a young lefthander named Paul Maholm when he broke into the league in 2005 with a 3-1 record and a 2.18 ERA in 6 starts. But last year was a disaster for Maholm as he went 8-10 with an ERA of 4.76. But at 24 years old, Maholm has plenty of time to turn things around and develop into a dependable starter in the Majors. The same cannot be said of Brewers righthander Claudio Vargas who has been in the league since 2003 and has never had an ERA under 4.30 and last season went 12-10 with an ERA of 4.83. Despite his high career ERA, Vargas has a career record of 32-32 which means that he generally gets very good run support when he is out there on the mound. The 'over' is 10-1-2 in Miwaukee's last 13 games as a favorite. And four out of Milwaukee's six home games this season have produced a total of 9 runs or more. Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my underdog winner in baseball or my 2 NBA plays, including my Game of the Month.
Stryker's Grand Slam MLB
Tom Stryker's MLB Grand Slam Super Play - 2-0 SWEEP Last Night
#975 BOSTON with listed pitcher Wakefield at 7:05 PM EST
The Blue Jays have been giving the Red Sox fits lately. Boston has won just 14 of the last 38 games in this series. Expect those numbers to start to change tonight.
On the hill for the BoSox will be veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. In two starts this season against Texas and Los Angeles, Wakefield has been in a zone allowing just two earned runs in 13 innings of work. That adds up to a respectable 1.38 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92! Wakefield's career numbers against Toronto are equally impressive. In 40 appearances against the Blue Jays, "T-Bone" has surrendered only 95 earned runs in 217.2 frames and fanned 172 batters. That equates to a sweet 3.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.35.
Boston's bats won't have any trouble waking up versus Toronto's Tomo Ohka. In two starts this season, the Japan product has been ripped for nine earned runs and 14 hits in only 10.1 innings. That adds up to a miserable 7.84 ERA and a WHIP of 1.74!
With expected run support, the Red Sox will cruise to victory. Take Boston with listed pitcher Wakefield. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker
GridIron
Free MLB Picks for 4/18/2007
Take Florida (Willis) -120 v. NY Mets (Maine)
Take Cleveland (Sowers) +130at NY Yankees (Igawa)
Randall H.
Ooakland –1.05
With Vladimir Guerrero on the rack for the Angels it changes the whole complexion of this line-up. The Angels have been laboring with the bats for about 10 days now and things really don’t figure to change much here with Dan Haren on the hill. Haren comes in with a 2.04 ERA in three starts covering 17.2 innings. He’ll face a line-up that has five guys batting under .240 and that includes leadoff man, 50 million dollar man Gary Matthews, whom is hitting .231 with no jacks and 2 RBI’s. Funny, isn’t it, what happens when the steroid watch is on? The Angels have scored two runs or less in five straight and seven of their past nine games. Frankly, we don’t care who’s pitching for the Angels because one or two runs in this one could give us a winning ticket. Angels favored here is wrong. Play Oakland –1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +1.15
Speaking of teams having a difficult time at the plate and one need not look further then the South Side. The White Sox have scored just two runs in their last three ball games and to make matters worse they lost its only .300 hitter when Scott Podsednik went down and is now on the DL. That leaves six hitters batting .240 or less and the ninth hitter, Jose Uribe with the best average. We all know the Rangers can bash and bash is precisely what their doing recently. In fact, the Rangers have scored 47 times in the past seven games. The pitching match-up in this one is very even but offensively the Rangers have a big time edge and that’s more then enough to get our endorsement in this one. Play: Texas +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.27
Despite a 2-0 record Aaron Harang has been anything but sharp in his last two starts, as he’s allowed five runs in both those games. In fact, Harang has lasted just 9.2 innings over that stretch against the Cubbies and Pirates, surrendering 17 hits and 10 runs. The Astros have seen plenty of Harang over the years and that definitely gives them a slight edge becaue the Reds have seen very little of Chris Sampson. Sampson has made one start after appearing in relief to open the year. He’s pitched a total of eight innings thus far and has yet to allow a run while walking just one hitter. His career numbers, albeit brief, are getting better all the time. Sampson has pitched a total of 42 major league innings and has surrendered just 30 hits and eight earned runs for an impressive 1.71 ERA. He’s walked just six batters over that span and anytime we can get a tag on a guy that throws strikes and has proven to be difficult to hit we’ll take our chances. Play Houston +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1.10
Laying a dime on Carlos Zambrano against Kerry Davies and the Braves comes highly recommended here. Zambrano hasn’t been close to being his usual sharp self but it’s no secret that Zambrano has some of the best stuff in the business and has been perhaps the most difficult pitcher to hit over the last three years. It’s only a matter of time before he starts being the dominant pitcher he’s always been. The Braves are 9-4 but that’s a little misleading when you consider that eight of their 13 games have been played against the Phillies and Nationals, whom are a combined 7-19. Kerry Davies is an average pitcher with very average start that seldom pitches deep into games. Davies is 10-13 lifetime with an ERA of 6.22 and we don;’t trust that his career is about to take a major turn for the better. Play: Chicago –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Marc Lawrence -- COMP
Bonus Play: New York (N) Mets vs Florida Marlins
Florida w/Willis over NY Mets There's no doubt about it, Marlins southpaw loves hurling in April as evidenced by his 13-1 career mark during the opening month. He's also 13-3 with a 2.82 ERA in his career team starts against the Mets. Stay at home with Willis and the Fish here tonight. Check this out - Marc Lawrence shares a 100% PERFECT SEASON ENDING Awesome Angle Play on Wednesday night's NBA card. Don't miss out, get it now, you'll be glad you did!
Beating-the-book
TODAY: MLB Free Pick - Take Chicago Cubs -105 @ Atlanta.
MATT F@RGO
Take Saint Louis Cardinals
St. Louis dropped another home game on Tuesday but now the Cardinals hit the road and that is a very good thing. The road team is now 11-2 in Cardinals games this season and that will get extended here especially seeing that that Giants are just 1-5 at home on the year. San Francisco is coming off another loss on Tuesday, finishing a very weather shortened road trip 3-3. The Cardinals pitching has been solid as it went seven straight games before Tuesday of allowing three or fewer runs. One of those pitchers in the mix during that run was Randy Keisler who allowed two runs on five hits and a walk in six innings of work against the Pirates. It didn’t come as much of a surprise as he had a solid spring allowing no earned runs and three hits over eight innings before being assigned to minor league camp. Prior to the start against the Pirates, in his only start for AAA Memphis this season, Keisler gave up one run and five hits in five innings. Filling in for Chris Carpenter, St. Louis isn’t looking for a lot, just some innings to get to the bullpen. Going for the Giants is former Cardinals starter Matt Morris who has been superb thus far. He is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA after shutting down San Diego in both starts. Being on the back end of his career, he is in my Class C tier and falls into the same angle as Steve Trachsel did on Tuesday who was lit up. The rule is to go against this class of pitcher after two or more consecutive quality starts and Morris falls into this. He struggled in both outings against his former team last season, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Morris is working on a week of rest as is Keisler and because of that, the Cardinals fall into a great situation. Play on road teams when the money line is with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season and starting pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. This situation is 32-11 against the moneyline (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons with the average run differential being +1.8 rpg in those 43 games. Look for the Cardinals to get it done on the road again.
Play St. Louis Cardinals 1 Unit
Ben Burns
Game: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: under
Reason: After nearly pitching a no-hitter vs. the Red Sox in his last start, the word is out on Felix Hernandez. The Seattle star, who has yet to give up a run this season, was a slight favorite in his first start and an underdog in his last. He's nearly a 2-1 favorite today though, no longer offering any "line value." While some of the value has also been lost with playing on Hernandez to play "Under" the total, I still feel that the UNDER is the correct way to go today. While nobody can top Hernandez's 0.00 ERA and 0.471 ERA, Silva's numbers aren't too shabby either. Indeed, Silva has a 0.77 ERA through his two starts! Not surprisingly, both starters have seen the UNDER go 2-0 thus far. Both starters have also fared extremely well vs. today's opponent. Silva is 3-1 and has a stellar 2.75 ERA (1.222 WHIP) vs. the Mariners while Hernandez is 2-1 with a miniscule 1.80 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in four starts vs. the Twins. Three of those four games fell below the total and this one should too. Look for another pitcher's duel and consider a play on the UNDER
Jim Feist
Take FLA Marlins
The Mets at Marlins may feature two young pitchers on the mound, but one is a seasoned veteran, the other a relative kid. NY starter John Maine has a good ERA, but his other numbers are not good: 8 walks in 11 innings, 14 total base runners. Walking batters is dangerous for pitchers and Maine is in dangerous territory. And he'll be facing a Marlins team that is tops in the NL in batting. Florida has no such worries with ace Dontrelle Willis (3-0, 3.32 ERA). He has walked 4 in 19 innings with 17 Ks. How is he in his career against the Mets? 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA
Dave Cokin
ATL Braves
Carlos Zambrano will eventually get it together, but at least for the time being he's being overpriced on reputation. I'm not a big Kyle Davies believer, but I have no problems taking him here. The Braves are better than the Cubs, they're at home, Zambrano is off his feed and Atlanta is the dog. Good enough for a call on the Braves
Lou Diamond
Game: HOU v. CIN
Take Under
Houston Under is 6-1-2 in Astros last 9 vs. National League Central. Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 games as a road underdog. Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 during game 1 of a series. Under is 23-6-2 in Astros last 31 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 9-3-3 in Astros last 15 overall. Under is 9-3-3 in Astros last 15 on Grass. Under is 37-14-3 in Astros last 54 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Under is 4-0 in Sampson's last 4 starts overall. Under is 4-0 in Sampson's last 4 starts on Grass. Cincinnati Under is 4-0 in Reds last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 8-1-1 in Reds last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 8-2 in Reds last 10 games as a favorite. Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 7-2-2 in Reds last 11 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 7-2-1 in Reds last 10 during game 1 of a series. Under is 17-5-4 in Reds last 26 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 9-3-1 in Reds last 13 vs. National League Central. Under is 6-2 in Reds last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 19-7-4 in Reds last 30 overall. Under is 19-7-4 in Reds last 30 on Grass. Under is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games as a home favorite. Under is 6-1 in Harang's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. Under is 5-1 in Harang's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 5-1 in Harang's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 5-1 in Harang's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 9-2-1 in Harang's last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-1-1 in Harang's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Under is 8-3 in Harang's last 11 starts as a home favorite. Under is 5-2 in Harang's last 7 home starts. Under is 5-2-1 in Harang's last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 5-2 in Harang's last 7 starts as a favorite. Under is 16-7-1 in Harang's last 24 starts overall. Under is 16-7-1 in Harang's last 24 starts on Grass
Mike Rose
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Devil Rays u8.0 (-105)
Since getting lit up in his first start of the season at Minnesota, Eric Bedard has put together a couple of really solid starts. He went 7 innings and held the potent Yanks line-up to only 3 earned runs in his second start, and then went 6 innings while only allowing 1 earned run and 5 hits and struck out 9 in his third start vs. KC. With this being his fourth start of the season, I’m expecting him to be a bit more comfortable in a dome and pitch a gem. His L/5 starts at Tropicana Filed have all seen the ‘Under’ cash, and I’m expecting more of the same this afternoon. Scott Kazmir got roughed up in his first two starts of the year, but he’s coming off a solid outing that saw him go 8 strong giving up 6 hits and 2 earned runs, while striking out 6 and issuing no free passes. I’m sure he’s psyched to be back home here to give the home crowd a better performance than his home debut vs. Toronto. With Fieldin Culbreth and his large strike zone behind the dish, both teams offenses will find it hard to get runs on the board if they can’t make contact with the ball. Both starting pitchers have been strikeout monsters early on and have gone deep in each of their respective starts. This game should fly by and runs will be very hard to come by, so hit the ‘Under’ at reduced juice and enjoy this pitching gem.
Atlanta Braves (100)
Even with Zambrano on the mound tonight, I’m giving the nod to the home team Braves with Davies on the mound. The Cubs are coming off a grueling 14-inning game with the Padres that they eventually lost yesterday afternoon, and their bats have been woefully silent all season long. If not for their eruption during Monday Night’s game, they could quite possibly be the worst hitting team in the National League coming into tonight’s game. The Braves have retooled and have been hot at home heading into this game winning five of eight overall. They’re coming off a series split at Washington and won’t come into this one in the best of moods knowing tow of their four losses have come at the hands of the lowly Nats. Cubs hurler Carlos Zambrano just hasn’t been himself to start the ’07 season, and I’m not expecting him to just be able to flip the switch this evening; especially against this potent Braves line-up. If this were late May or June, I’d think about backing the hefty hard throwing righty, but not now, and certainly not after keeping an eye on his recent performances. Cubbies are still learning the ropes with their new line-up making changes everyday, while the Braves are more unified. Grab the home team here as they hand the Cubs their ninth loss of the season.
Michael Cannon
Take the Pirates tonight on the road as a small dog over the Brewers.
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The Buccos will start Paul Maholm and the lefty has had some success over the Brew Crew in his short career.
Maholm is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against Milwaukee. He should be able to neutralize the left-handed power bats of Prince Fielder and Geoff Jenkins.
The Pirates bats seem to have stayed behind in Florida since the season started, but they managed a rare two-game road sweep of the Cardinals and the Brewers haven't exactly been lights out as a pitching staff so far this year.
I like the Bucco bats to heat up in Milwaukee tonight while Maholm keeps the Brewers in check.
Take the Pirates for the road win as a small dog.
3? PITTSBURGH
Chris Jordan
THIS IS A RUN-LINE RELEASE
How great has Jeremy Bonderman looked through three outings? So darned good he still doesn't have a win for all his hard work.
But when you face former Cy Young winner Roy Halladay, not once – but twice – it's respectable to have a pair of no-decisions in those meetings.
On April 8 he struck out eight Royals over six innings, and now he comes into this one with a stellar 2.57 ERA on his 2007 resume.
Meanwhile, the run line gets the cover against Gil Meche, who surrendered six runs in seven innings in a home loss to Detroit on April 7.
The Royals entered this series on a 3-10 skid to start the season, and it doesn't get any easier here against Detroit's durable strikeout pitcher.
5? TIGERS -1-1/2
Bobby Maxwell
The Blue Jays cashed some nice plus-money Tuesday with a victory over Red Sox sensation Daisuke Matsuzaka, 2-1.
Now they get to face someone they are much more familiar with in Tim Wakefield. The Blue Jays beat Wakefield last season 5-0, scoring five runs on five hits in six innings. Wakefield has given up three runs on eight hits in 13 innings this season and he is 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA.
Toronto is starting former Red Sox starter Tomo Ohka. He has been hit hard this season, giving up 10 runs on 14 hits in 10 1/3 innings.
I know Ohka's numbers aren't good but the Blue Jays just own the Sox in Toronto. They've won six of the last seven times they've met and are 14-5 the last 19 times they've met in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 home games and let's play them to keep it going tonight.
2? TORONTO
Paul Leiner
Game: Kansas City/Detroit
Prediction: 5 Star Royals +180
Matt Fargo
For Wednesday let's lay a run and a half with King Felix Hernandez and the Mariners.
The way the Seattle righthander has been throwing the ball I will definitely lay that run and a half and back him at home against the Twins. I do admit that Minnesota is the overall more sound club and has the much better chance to make it to postseason play but Hernandez has been insanely on-fire over these first two starts and until anything changes he is a must play in a spot such as this one. The guy has been literally unhittable and just shoved it up the Red Sox' butts at Fenway after destroying the A's in the opener.
Carlos Silva is extremely mediocre at best and the Twins on the road could easily get blanked here by the future Cy Young candidate in Hernandez.
Seattle has a solid offense with Ichiro, Sexson, Beltre, Vidro and others and should be able to knock Silva around Safeco a bit. I am not at all trying to put these M's on a pedestal but they will be all sorts of jacked up with their ace on the hill in this spot and should come out swinging.
Plus money or so with Hernandez while laying this run and a half is a quality play. If we only win by a run then so be it but I will not lay the hefty number without the run and can see this game ending 7-1 Mariners
Jeff Benton
For today, take the Marlins with Dontrelle Willis as small home favorite against the Mets.
I’ll admit that I’m a little worried by Florida’s recent slump (1-5 in its last six, including three losses in a row), and I know the Mets are on fire. But how can argue with the D-Train’s numbers against the Mets? We’re talking a 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA IN 16 starts, 13 of which the Fish have won!
Also, the one win that Florida has scored in the last week came with Dontrelle on the mound, as he led the Marlins to an 11-4 win at Atlanta on Friday. Willis is already off to a 3-0 start to the season with a 3.32 ERA, and he’s receiving a ton of offensive support (9.3 runs per game).
Tonight, Florida takes its hacks against Mets starter John Maine. And if they’re patient, they’ll get to the young righthander. Because while Maine pitched an absolute gem in his debut – he held the Cardinals to just one hit in seven innings in a 10-0 win – he looked very much like a sophomore pitcher in his next start against the Phillies, giving up five hits and six walks in just 4 2/3 innings while throwing 104 pitches!
Also, because of a couple of rainouts last week, Maine comes into this game having not pitched in nine days! For a guy who had control problems in his last outing, that’s not a good thing.
I laid the reasonable price with the D-Train on Sunday against the Braves on the road and got the easy win. It probably won’t be as easy tonight against the talented Mets, but I have no doubt he and the Marlins will deliver once again!
(based on a 1 to a 10 ? Rating)
5? FLORIDA MARLINS
Alex Smart
Rangers at White Sox
Prediction: 'Under
Kevin Millwood, the Rangers' starting pitcher tonight against the Chicago White Sox, enters this contest in top form winning his last two starts while garnering a stable 3.00 ERA. The veteran righty in five career starts versus the ChiSox has been almost un-hittable as evidenced by a 1.32 ERA including a 0.75 ERA at US Cellular Field. His pitching opponent from the South Siders, southpaw Mark Buehrle, started slow in his last outing but progressively became dominant retiring 17 of the last 18 batters he has faced. Buehrle is 8-3 along with a tight 3.29 ERA against the Rangers in his career and owns a respectable 3.75 lifetime ERA at US Cellular. Considering the current form and overall history off both hurlers, recommending the 'under' makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Final notes and trends: Millwood has gone 'under' is 12 of his last 16 road starts. The 'under' is 9-2-1 in Buehrle's last 12 starts with the 'total' between 9 and 10 1/2.
Wednesday Comps
Computer Boys-Milwaukee(baseball)
Feiner-Arizona
Gold Key Games
Silver Key (Bonus Play): Detroit (BONDERMAN) –190
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Chris Jordan
500? DIAMONDBACKS (ACTION) - Before you accost me for taking the road team in this clash of NL West contenders, let's take a close look at the travel schedule of the Padres. They played the Sunday night game in L.A. on ESPN, then left for Chicago for a two-game set that started on Monday night and concluded yesterday with a matinee affair that saw Greg Maddux return to Wrigley Field in his fourth career uniform. And let's not forget that was a 14-inning affair as well.
Now the Friars are back home for a game with the D Backs, who will put ace Brandon Webb on the hill. And Arizona has been on the West Coast this whole time. And anytime I find myself being able to go against David Wells, in the right situation, I take full advantage. Boomer comes in off a rough outing against the Dodgers, and will get the early exit in this one as well.
Chuck Franlin
1500? FLORIDA w/WILLIS over NY Mets w/Maine
Marlins lefty ace Dontrelle Willis owns a lifetime 11-2 record against the Mets. He is also already 3-0 this season, and brings a nice low ERA into this match-up with the Mets. I expect Willis to get his fourth win tonight against a team that he has proven to be able to dominate. The Marlins have started the season with a very respectable offense, averaging over five runs a game. In their home ballpark tonight I expect more of the same in their victory over the NY Mets.
1500? WHITE SOX w/BUEHRLE over Texas w/Millwood
The White Sox turned a profit last year at home against right-handed pitching, and also had one of the most dominant offensive teams in the league. This year they have been a little slow out of the gate, but should be able to turn that around as the season progresses, the weather improves, and their power hitters Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye start to hit their stride. This should be an easy home victory for Chicago tonight, as left-hander Mark Buehrle takes the mound for the Sox. He has a career record vs. the Rangers of 8-3, while his opponent, righty Kevin Millwood is 0-2 lifetime against the Chicago White Sox.
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - LOS ANGELES WITH LOWE
Call me stubborn, but I will go against the Rockies again tonight, even though they bit me in the ass with a 5-run 8th last night!
Colorado still has lost 5 of their last 7, while the 1st place Dodgers have won 3 in a row, and are 6-2 on the road this year.
Los Angeles is getting great starting pitching right now, and Derek Lowe is a big part of that, as the righty has worked 15-innings of 2-run ball his last 2 starts for a 2-0 mark!
The Dodgers have already taken 2 of 3 at home from the Rockies, and did go 7-2 last season at Coors Field with Lowe going 1-1 in his 3 Coors starts last season.
LA is playing too well right now, and a 5-run fluke of an inning for the win last night is not enough to get me interested in the Rockies especially with the untested Lopez on the mound.
10 DIMER - FLORIDA MARLINS WITH WILLIS
The Marlins are reeling right now - no pun intended! - as they have lost their last 3, and 5 of 6 as they head back home for this series with the Mets
Look for Florida to snap out of it tonight, as Dontrelle Willis has been a steady customer early on, winning all 3 of his starts this year. Willis is also 11-2 for his career against New York going 3-1 with an ERA under 3 last season.
New York has been playing good baseball on the road this year at 5-2, but they can't seem to figure out how to handle Willis, so I suggest a 10-Dimer on Florida in this spot tonight!
10 DIMER - BOSTON WITH WAKEFIELD
You have to wonder if the whole media hype behind Dice-K is going to hurt the Red Sox on offense this year, as that makes 2 starts in a row the Sox have been shutdown when Matsuzaka is on the hill!
I like the BoSox to snap out of it tonight when Tim Wakefield starts, as Wakefield's knuckleball has been missing opponents bats regularly this spring. Just take a look at his under 2 ERA through his first 2 starts!
The same cannot be said for Tomo Ohka, as he has an ERA approaching 8 through his first 2 assignments.
Hey, Boston was able to score 25 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Angels prior to getting shut down last night. I expect the Sox to erupt for a few runs tonight
Rob House
1,000,000? LA Dodgers W/ Lowe
SportsMemo (Comp)
Andrew Lange
Looking for a low-scoring affair tonight as LA’s John Lackey faces Oakland’s Danny Haren. Lackey will be attempting to win his fifth straight against Oakland and halt a five-game Angels’ losing streak. Lackey (2-1, 2.04 ERA) gave up one run and seven hits in seven innings of work in a 2-1 win over the A’s earlier this season. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last nine starts against the A's and 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts in Oakland since August of 2005. Oakland's Dan Haren (0-2, 2.00) will face Lackey for the second time this season, after a solid performance the first time around. Despite the loss, Haren allowed one ER and six hits in seven innings. Bobby Crosby has had plenty of struggles vs. Lackey, going 5-for-22 and six Ks in his career. Angels left fielder Garret Anderson was hitless in four at-bats on Tuesday, and is just 2-for-20 in his last five games. Vladimir Guerrero out with a bruised right wrist will be out due to a hurt wrist. We see plenty of value and reasons to take the under
Dave Malansky
4* O's Under
4* A's Over
4* Cubs Over
3* Seattle Mariners
Billy Coleman
4* Red Sox w/Wakefield
3* Tex/Chicago under 9 Millwood/Buehrie
Tony Onio
500? FLORIDA
100? BRAVES
100? ARIZONA
Today's Complimentary Play: WHITE SOX
Power Play of the Day
BO Sox 125 (Wakefield listed)
Boxer Sports
(2*) Los Angeles Dodgers
(2*) Boston Red Sox
(2*) Chicago White Sox
Rocketman
2* LA Dodgers
2* Reds
Great Lakes
5* Toronto
4* Minnesota
3* Mets
Glen McGrew (Confirmed)
SF Giants
Redsox Over
Phillies
Computer Boys
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Milwaukee (baseball)
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Donald Tran
Matchup: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles +120 W/ Bedard
Bobby Bo
Game: Arizona vs San Diego
Prediction: Over 7.5
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Bob Balfe:
Devil Rays -125 over Orioles (Kazmir/Bedard)
Professional-Plays
Boston -133
CWS –119
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Proffit Plays
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Atlanta
NY Mets
Minn
Daily Best Bets
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Atlanta
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Money Line: 121
Toronto Blue Jays
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Time: 4/18/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays - Toronto won last night with just 3 hits and that momentum will carry over in to this game. Boston has begun to grab attention on Sports Center with massive HR shots, but they are still batting just 254 on the season. Toronto has a strong, mostly overlooked lineup, batting 294 so far this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-25 and has made 31 units since 1997. Play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher a top-level team (>=62%) playing a team with a winning record, in April. TORONTO is 55-42 (+16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 3 seasons. Note too that Boston does not play well on the faster action artificial turf. BOSTON is 6-17 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons
Jeff Alexander<o></o>
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1 Unit on Arizona -118 (listing Webb and Wells)
The Padres are 8-22 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons. This stat trend really speaks of the Padres' deficiencies at the plate as does this next one. Arizona is 23-13 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Webb has been nowhere near his best yet n 2007, but I like him to have a stellar start tonight against the poor hitting Pads.
2-Minute Warning
NY YANKEES (IGAWA) over Cleveland (Sowers)
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PPP
3 % Cubs
2 % Mets
2 % Pitt
2 % Angels
2 % Toronto
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Professorwins
2* Pitt
2* Washington
2* Houston
2* Toronto
5* NY Mets
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Locksmith
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3.5 Cubs
3 SF
3 LAD
2 LAA
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Dave Malinski
4* Baltimore UNDER
4* Oakland OVER
4* Cubs OVER,
3* Seattle
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Russ Culver
Nationals +140
Astros +125
Cubs -110
Pirates +123
Rockies +102
Indians +124
Blue Jays +120
Curry Bagwell
Marlins -115
Braves -105
Indians +125
Red Sox -130
Accu Picks
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4* Phillies
3* Rockies
3* Whites Sox
Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>(I made it back in time to post before the evening games begin)<o
></o><o
></o>Coaches Corner
<o
></o>953 Phil Phillies -143 04/18/07 5
955/956 unHou/Cin 9 04/18/07 4
959 Pit Pirates +123 04/18/07 5
Ben Burns
Twins at Mariners
Prediction: 'Under'
After nearly pitching a no-hitter versus the Red Sox in his last start, the word is out on Felix Hernandez. The Seattle star, who has yet to give up a run this season, was a slight favorite in his first start and an underdog in his last. He's nearly a 2-1 favorite today though, and is no longer offering any "line value." While some of the value has also been lost on the 'under' with Hernandez on the hill, I still feel that it's the correct way to go today. While nobody can top Hernandez's 0.00 ERA and 0.471 ERA, Silva's numbers aren't too shabby either. Indeed, Silva has a 0.77 ERA through his two starts! Not surprisingly, both starters have seen the 'under' go 2-0 thus far. Both starters have also fared extremely well versus today's opponent. Silva is 3-1 and has a stellar 2.75 ERA (1.222 WHIP) versus the Mariners while Hernandez is 2-1 with a miniscule 1.80 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in four starts versus the Twins. Three of those four games fell below the 'total' and this one should too. Look for another pitchers' duel and consider a play on the 'under'
Dennis Macklin
Astros at Reds
Prediction: Reds
The Reds Adam Harang doesn't have good numbers (5.40 ERA, 23 hits in 16+ innings) but he is 3-0 picking up 18 runs in support. He faces spot starter Chris Sampson for the Astros, who is perfect in eight innings work allowing just six hits. But he is unlikely to go more than five or six innings tops. That's not good news after Cincinnati pounded Houston pen for seven runs in the final two innings last night. The Reds have battered right-handed pitching and are 6-1 this year with that angle. Harang won his last three starts against Houston in '06 allowing just six earned in 22 innings work with an impressive 3-16 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Take the Reds.
Alex Smart
Rangers at White Sox
Prediction: 'Under'
Kevin Millwood, the Rangers' starting pitcher tonight against the Chicago White Sox, enters this contest in top form winning his last two starts while garnering a stable 3.00 ERA. The veteran righty in five career starts versus the ChiSox has been almost un-hittable as evidenced by a 1.32 ERA including a 0.75 ERA at US Cellular Field. His pitching opponent from the South Siders, southpaw Mark Buehrle, started slow in his last outing but progressively became dominant retiring 17 of the last 18 batters he has faced. Buehrle is 8-3 along with a tight 3.29 ERA against the Rangers in his career and owns a respectable 3.75 lifetime ERA at US Cellular. Considering the current form and overall history off both hurlers, recommending the 'under' makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Final notes and trends: Millwood has gone 'under' is 12 of his last 16 road starts. The 'under' is 9-2-1 in Buehrle's last 12 starts with the 'total' between 9 and 10 1/2. Play the 'under'.
Larry Ness
NY Mets
Brandon Lang
20 DIME
Marlins - Specify Pitchers - Maine vs Willis
10 DIME
Angels - Specify Pitchers - Lackey vs Haren
Giants - Specify Pitchers - Keisler vs Morris
Orioles - Specify Pitchers - Bedard vs Kazmir
5 DIME
Padres - Specify Pitchers - Webb vs Wells
Mariners -1 1/2 Runs - Specify Pitchers - Silva vs Hernandez
Paul Leiner
5 Star Royals +180
Russ Culver
Royals +180
LA-Oakland UNDER 7 1/2 -110 (Lackey-Haren)
Scott Spreitzer
<o
></o>Angels
LT Lock
Giants
Jim Feist
The Mets at Marlins may feature two young pitchers on the mound, but one is a seasoned veteran, the other a relative kid. NY starter John Maine has a good ERA, but his other numbers are not good: 8 walks in 11 innings, 14 total base runners. Walking batters is dangerous for pitchers and Maine is in dangerous territory. And he'll be facing a Marlins team that is tops in the NL in batting. Florida has no such worries with ace Dontrelle Willis (3-0, 3.32 ERA). He has walked 4 in 19 innings with 17 Ks. How is he in his career against the Mets? 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA
Pick: Marlins
Hondo
<o
></o>Boston Red Sox
Red Zone (Comp)
Detroit Tigers
Cappers Access
Angels
White Sox
LT Lock
Giants
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (2nd TY / 20-6 start in MLB '07!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Fla Marlins at 7:05 ET. The Mets were the NL's best team during last year's regular season and they may own that distinction again in 2007, but this is not a good spot for them. The Marlins opened 2006 by going 2-13 at Dolphin Stadium but went 40-26 to finish the year at home. Tonight, they send Dontrelle Willis to the mound, who is looking to become MLB's first four-game winner. I like his chances. He's a remarkable 12-1 in career starts during April, not to mention 11-2 in 16 career starts vs the Mets (Marlins are 13-3). That's his most wins against any club and his 2.02 ERA vs New York also represents his lowest ERA against any team. The Mets will counter with John Maine and while Maine has posted a 1.54 ERA in two starts this year, he hasn't pitched since April 9, because of numerous postponements. In his last start, although he gave up just two runs, it shouldn't go unnoticed that he allowed five hits and six walks in just 4.2 innings! Las Vegas Insider on the NY Mets.
Larry Ness' 15* Bailout GOW (13-1 to open MLB '07 with 15* GOW plays!)
My 15* play is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET. Matt Morris spent his first eight seasons with the Cards, going 111-62. He struggled with the Giants in 2006, going 10-15 with a 4.98 ERA. He's gotten off to a solid start in 2007 though, going 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA. The Cards have really struggled in Busch, as yesterday's home loss to the Pirates left them 1-6 at home to open 2007. The Cards have gone 5-1 on the road but that doesn't inspire any confidence in them for me in this spot. Lefty Randy Keilser takes the mound for the Cards (stepping into Carpenter's spot in the rotation) and since making 10 starts in 2001 with the Yankees, has made just SEVEN starts since, including one start this year at Pittsburgh (April 10). The Cards are just not hitting (see Pujols at 8-of-50 for a .160 BA), averaging 3.15 runs per game. Morris has always been known as a home pitcher, as these last six years, his teams (Cards and Giants) have gone 66-36 in his home starts and just 48-50 in his road starts. After two poor starts against his ex-team last year (0-2, 6.75), look for Morris to pitch well here and for the Giant bats to get to Keisler, a poor replacement for Chris Carpenter.
Bailout GOW 15* SF Giants.
Big Al's Baseball Underdog Winner -- 80% This Year
At 10:15pm our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Francisco Giants. The Cardinals are off to a 6-7 start, the worst record for a defending world series champion since the 1997 Florida Marlins. The good news for St. Louis is that it is about to play a 2 game series against the 4-8 San Francisco Giants. If you look up the word "journeyman" in the dictionary, you will see Cardinals lefthander Randy Keisler. Since breaking into the Majors in 2000, Keisler has been with 5 different teams in 6 years. Keisler is being asked to fill in for Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter, on the DL with an injured elbow, and he already has his first win of the season, having gone 6 innings, giving up only 2 earned runs in a win against the Pirates. The Giants are 1-9 in their last 10 home games and 6-20 in their last 26 games on grass. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NBA Game of the Month tonight or my other two plays in baseball & basketball
Big Al's MLB Totals Winner--100% This Year
At 8:05pm our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers 'over' the total. The Pirates had high hopes for a young lefthander named Paul Maholm when he broke into the league in 2005 with a 3-1 record and a 2.18 ERA in 6 starts. But last year was a disaster for Maholm as he went 8-10 with an ERA of 4.76. But at 24 years old, Maholm has plenty of time to turn things around and develop into a dependable starter in the Majors. The same cannot be said of Brewers righthander Claudio Vargas who has been in the league since 2003 and has never had an ERA under 4.30 and last season went 12-10 with an ERA of 4.83. Despite his high career ERA, Vargas has a career record of 32-32 which means that he generally gets very good run support when he is out there on the mound. The 'over' is 10-1-2 in Miwaukee's last 13 games as a favorite. And four out of Milwaukee's six home games this season have produced a total of 9 runs or more. Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my underdog winner in baseball or my 2 NBA plays, including my Game of the Month.
Stryker's Grand Slam MLB
Tom Stryker's MLB Grand Slam Super Play - 2-0 SWEEP Last Night
#975 BOSTON with listed pitcher Wakefield at 7:05 PM EST
The Blue Jays have been giving the Red Sox fits lately. Boston has won just 14 of the last 38 games in this series. Expect those numbers to start to change tonight.
On the hill for the BoSox will be veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. In two starts this season against Texas and Los Angeles, Wakefield has been in a zone allowing just two earned runs in 13 innings of work. That adds up to a respectable 1.38 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92! Wakefield's career numbers against Toronto are equally impressive. In 40 appearances against the Blue Jays, "T-Bone" has surrendered only 95 earned runs in 217.2 frames and fanned 172 batters. That equates to a sweet 3.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.35.
Boston's bats won't have any trouble waking up versus Toronto's Tomo Ohka. In two starts this season, the Japan product has been ripped for nine earned runs and 14 hits in only 10.1 innings. That adds up to a miserable 7.84 ERA and a WHIP of 1.74!
With expected run support, the Red Sox will cruise to victory. Take Boston with listed pitcher Wakefield. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker
GridIron
Free MLB Picks for 4/18/2007
Take Florida (Willis) -120 v. NY Mets (Maine)
Take Cleveland (Sowers) +130at NY Yankees (Igawa)
Randall H.
Ooakland –1.05
With Vladimir Guerrero on the rack for the Angels it changes the whole complexion of this line-up. The Angels have been laboring with the bats for about 10 days now and things really don’t figure to change much here with Dan Haren on the hill. Haren comes in with a 2.04 ERA in three starts covering 17.2 innings. He’ll face a line-up that has five guys batting under .240 and that includes leadoff man, 50 million dollar man Gary Matthews, whom is hitting .231 with no jacks and 2 RBI’s. Funny, isn’t it, what happens when the steroid watch is on? The Angels have scored two runs or less in five straight and seven of their past nine games. Frankly, we don’t care who’s pitching for the Angels because one or two runs in this one could give us a winning ticket. Angels favored here is wrong. Play Oakland –1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +1.15
Speaking of teams having a difficult time at the plate and one need not look further then the South Side. The White Sox have scored just two runs in their last three ball games and to make matters worse they lost its only .300 hitter when Scott Podsednik went down and is now on the DL. That leaves six hitters batting .240 or less and the ninth hitter, Jose Uribe with the best average. We all know the Rangers can bash and bash is precisely what their doing recently. In fact, the Rangers have scored 47 times in the past seven games. The pitching match-up in this one is very even but offensively the Rangers have a big time edge and that’s more then enough to get our endorsement in this one. Play: Texas +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.27
Despite a 2-0 record Aaron Harang has been anything but sharp in his last two starts, as he’s allowed five runs in both those games. In fact, Harang has lasted just 9.2 innings over that stretch against the Cubbies and Pirates, surrendering 17 hits and 10 runs. The Astros have seen plenty of Harang over the years and that definitely gives them a slight edge becaue the Reds have seen very little of Chris Sampson. Sampson has made one start after appearing in relief to open the year. He’s pitched a total of eight innings thus far and has yet to allow a run while walking just one hitter. His career numbers, albeit brief, are getting better all the time. Sampson has pitched a total of 42 major league innings and has surrendered just 30 hits and eight earned runs for an impressive 1.71 ERA. He’s walked just six batters over that span and anytime we can get a tag on a guy that throws strikes and has proven to be difficult to hit we’ll take our chances. Play Houston +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1.10
Laying a dime on Carlos Zambrano against Kerry Davies and the Braves comes highly recommended here. Zambrano hasn’t been close to being his usual sharp self but it’s no secret that Zambrano has some of the best stuff in the business and has been perhaps the most difficult pitcher to hit over the last three years. It’s only a matter of time before he starts being the dominant pitcher he’s always been. The Braves are 9-4 but that’s a little misleading when you consider that eight of their 13 games have been played against the Phillies and Nationals, whom are a combined 7-19. Kerry Davies is an average pitcher with very average start that seldom pitches deep into games. Davies is 10-13 lifetime with an ERA of 6.22 and we don;’t trust that his career is about to take a major turn for the better. Play: Chicago –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Marc Lawrence -- COMP
Bonus Play: New York (N) Mets vs Florida Marlins
Florida w/Willis over NY Mets There's no doubt about it, Marlins southpaw loves hurling in April as evidenced by his 13-1 career mark during the opening month. He's also 13-3 with a 2.82 ERA in his career team starts against the Mets. Stay at home with Willis and the Fish here tonight. Check this out - Marc Lawrence shares a 100% PERFECT SEASON ENDING Awesome Angle Play on Wednesday night's NBA card. Don't miss out, get it now, you'll be glad you did!
Beating-the-book
TODAY: MLB Free Pick - Take Chicago Cubs -105 @ Atlanta.
MATT F@RGO
Take Saint Louis Cardinals
St. Louis dropped another home game on Tuesday but now the Cardinals hit the road and that is a very good thing. The road team is now 11-2 in Cardinals games this season and that will get extended here especially seeing that that Giants are just 1-5 at home on the year. San Francisco is coming off another loss on Tuesday, finishing a very weather shortened road trip 3-3. The Cardinals pitching has been solid as it went seven straight games before Tuesday of allowing three or fewer runs. One of those pitchers in the mix during that run was Randy Keisler who allowed two runs on five hits and a walk in six innings of work against the Pirates. It didn’t come as much of a surprise as he had a solid spring allowing no earned runs and three hits over eight innings before being assigned to minor league camp. Prior to the start against the Pirates, in his only start for AAA Memphis this season, Keisler gave up one run and five hits in five innings. Filling in for Chris Carpenter, St. Louis isn’t looking for a lot, just some innings to get to the bullpen. Going for the Giants is former Cardinals starter Matt Morris who has been superb thus far. He is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA after shutting down San Diego in both starts. Being on the back end of his career, he is in my Class C tier and falls into the same angle as Steve Trachsel did on Tuesday who was lit up. The rule is to go against this class of pitcher after two or more consecutive quality starts and Morris falls into this. He struggled in both outings against his former team last season, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Morris is working on a week of rest as is Keisler and because of that, the Cardinals fall into a great situation. Play on road teams when the money line is with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season and starting pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. This situation is 32-11 against the moneyline (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons with the average run differential being +1.8 rpg in those 43 games. Look for the Cardinals to get it done on the road again.
Play St. Louis Cardinals 1 Unit
Ben Burns
Game: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: under
Reason: After nearly pitching a no-hitter vs. the Red Sox in his last start, the word is out on Felix Hernandez. The Seattle star, who has yet to give up a run this season, was a slight favorite in his first start and an underdog in his last. He's nearly a 2-1 favorite today though, no longer offering any "line value." While some of the value has also been lost with playing on Hernandez to play "Under" the total, I still feel that the UNDER is the correct way to go today. While nobody can top Hernandez's 0.00 ERA and 0.471 ERA, Silva's numbers aren't too shabby either. Indeed, Silva has a 0.77 ERA through his two starts! Not surprisingly, both starters have seen the UNDER go 2-0 thus far. Both starters have also fared extremely well vs. today's opponent. Silva is 3-1 and has a stellar 2.75 ERA (1.222 WHIP) vs. the Mariners while Hernandez is 2-1 with a miniscule 1.80 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in four starts vs. the Twins. Three of those four games fell below the total and this one should too. Look for another pitcher's duel and consider a play on the UNDER
Jim Feist
Take FLA Marlins
The Mets at Marlins may feature two young pitchers on the mound, but one is a seasoned veteran, the other a relative kid. NY starter John Maine has a good ERA, but his other numbers are not good: 8 walks in 11 innings, 14 total base runners. Walking batters is dangerous for pitchers and Maine is in dangerous territory. And he'll be facing a Marlins team that is tops in the NL in batting. Florida has no such worries with ace Dontrelle Willis (3-0, 3.32 ERA). He has walked 4 in 19 innings with 17 Ks. How is he in his career against the Mets? 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA
Dave Cokin
ATL Braves
Carlos Zambrano will eventually get it together, but at least for the time being he's being overpriced on reputation. I'm not a big Kyle Davies believer, but I have no problems taking him here. The Braves are better than the Cubs, they're at home, Zambrano is off his feed and Atlanta is the dog. Good enough for a call on the Braves
Lou Diamond
Game: HOU v. CIN
Take Under
Houston Under is 6-1-2 in Astros last 9 vs. National League Central. Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 games as a road underdog. Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 during game 1 of a series. Under is 23-6-2 in Astros last 31 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 9-3-3 in Astros last 15 overall. Under is 9-3-3 in Astros last 15 on Grass. Under is 37-14-3 in Astros last 54 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Under is 4-0 in Sampson's last 4 starts overall. Under is 4-0 in Sampson's last 4 starts on Grass. Cincinnati Under is 4-0 in Reds last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 8-1-1 in Reds last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 8-2 in Reds last 10 games as a favorite. Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 7-2-2 in Reds last 11 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 7-2-1 in Reds last 10 during game 1 of a series. Under is 17-5-4 in Reds last 26 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 9-3-1 in Reds last 13 vs. National League Central. Under is 6-2 in Reds last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 19-7-4 in Reds last 30 overall. Under is 19-7-4 in Reds last 30 on Grass. Under is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games as a home favorite. Under is 6-1 in Harang's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. Under is 5-1 in Harang's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 5-1 in Harang's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 5-1 in Harang's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 9-2-1 in Harang's last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-1-1 in Harang's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Under is 8-3 in Harang's last 11 starts as a home favorite. Under is 5-2 in Harang's last 7 home starts. Under is 5-2-1 in Harang's last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 5-2 in Harang's last 7 starts as a favorite. Under is 16-7-1 in Harang's last 24 starts overall. Under is 16-7-1 in Harang's last 24 starts on Grass
Mike Rose
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Devil Rays u8.0 (-105)
Since getting lit up in his first start of the season at Minnesota, Eric Bedard has put together a couple of really solid starts. He went 7 innings and held the potent Yanks line-up to only 3 earned runs in his second start, and then went 6 innings while only allowing 1 earned run and 5 hits and struck out 9 in his third start vs. KC. With this being his fourth start of the season, I’m expecting him to be a bit more comfortable in a dome and pitch a gem. His L/5 starts at Tropicana Filed have all seen the ‘Under’ cash, and I’m expecting more of the same this afternoon. Scott Kazmir got roughed up in his first two starts of the year, but he’s coming off a solid outing that saw him go 8 strong giving up 6 hits and 2 earned runs, while striking out 6 and issuing no free passes. I’m sure he’s psyched to be back home here to give the home crowd a better performance than his home debut vs. Toronto. With Fieldin Culbreth and his large strike zone behind the dish, both teams offenses will find it hard to get runs on the board if they can’t make contact with the ball. Both starting pitchers have been strikeout monsters early on and have gone deep in each of their respective starts. This game should fly by and runs will be very hard to come by, so hit the ‘Under’ at reduced juice and enjoy this pitching gem.
Atlanta Braves (100)
Even with Zambrano on the mound tonight, I’m giving the nod to the home team Braves with Davies on the mound. The Cubs are coming off a grueling 14-inning game with the Padres that they eventually lost yesterday afternoon, and their bats have been woefully silent all season long. If not for their eruption during Monday Night’s game, they could quite possibly be the worst hitting team in the National League coming into tonight’s game. The Braves have retooled and have been hot at home heading into this game winning five of eight overall. They’re coming off a series split at Washington and won’t come into this one in the best of moods knowing tow of their four losses have come at the hands of the lowly Nats. Cubs hurler Carlos Zambrano just hasn’t been himself to start the ’07 season, and I’m not expecting him to just be able to flip the switch this evening; especially against this potent Braves line-up. If this were late May or June, I’d think about backing the hefty hard throwing righty, but not now, and certainly not after keeping an eye on his recent performances. Cubbies are still learning the ropes with their new line-up making changes everyday, while the Braves are more unified. Grab the home team here as they hand the Cubs their ninth loss of the season.
Michael Cannon
Take the Pirates tonight on the road as a small dog over the Brewers.
<o
></o>The Buccos will start Paul Maholm and the lefty has had some success over the Brew Crew in his short career.
Maholm is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against Milwaukee. He should be able to neutralize the left-handed power bats of Prince Fielder and Geoff Jenkins.
The Pirates bats seem to have stayed behind in Florida since the season started, but they managed a rare two-game road sweep of the Cardinals and the Brewers haven't exactly been lights out as a pitching staff so far this year.
I like the Bucco bats to heat up in Milwaukee tonight while Maholm keeps the Brewers in check.
Take the Pirates for the road win as a small dog.
3? PITTSBURGH
Chris Jordan
THIS IS A RUN-LINE RELEASE
How great has Jeremy Bonderman looked through three outings? So darned good he still doesn't have a win for all his hard work.
But when you face former Cy Young winner Roy Halladay, not once – but twice – it's respectable to have a pair of no-decisions in those meetings.
On April 8 he struck out eight Royals over six innings, and now he comes into this one with a stellar 2.57 ERA on his 2007 resume.
Meanwhile, the run line gets the cover against Gil Meche, who surrendered six runs in seven innings in a home loss to Detroit on April 7.
The Royals entered this series on a 3-10 skid to start the season, and it doesn't get any easier here against Detroit's durable strikeout pitcher.
5? TIGERS -1-1/2
Bobby Maxwell
The Blue Jays cashed some nice plus-money Tuesday with a victory over Red Sox sensation Daisuke Matsuzaka, 2-1.
Now they get to face someone they are much more familiar with in Tim Wakefield. The Blue Jays beat Wakefield last season 5-0, scoring five runs on five hits in six innings. Wakefield has given up three runs on eight hits in 13 innings this season and he is 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA.
Toronto is starting former Red Sox starter Tomo Ohka. He has been hit hard this season, giving up 10 runs on 14 hits in 10 1/3 innings.
I know Ohka's numbers aren't good but the Blue Jays just own the Sox in Toronto. They've won six of the last seven times they've met and are 14-5 the last 19 times they've met in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 home games and let's play them to keep it going tonight.
2? TORONTO
Paul Leiner
Game: Kansas City/Detroit
Prediction: 5 Star Royals +180
Matt Fargo
For Wednesday let's lay a run and a half with King Felix Hernandez and the Mariners.
The way the Seattle righthander has been throwing the ball I will definitely lay that run and a half and back him at home against the Twins. I do admit that Minnesota is the overall more sound club and has the much better chance to make it to postseason play but Hernandez has been insanely on-fire over these first two starts and until anything changes he is a must play in a spot such as this one. The guy has been literally unhittable and just shoved it up the Red Sox' butts at Fenway after destroying the A's in the opener.
Carlos Silva is extremely mediocre at best and the Twins on the road could easily get blanked here by the future Cy Young candidate in Hernandez.
Seattle has a solid offense with Ichiro, Sexson, Beltre, Vidro and others and should be able to knock Silva around Safeco a bit. I am not at all trying to put these M's on a pedestal but they will be all sorts of jacked up with their ace on the hill in this spot and should come out swinging.
Plus money or so with Hernandez while laying this run and a half is a quality play. If we only win by a run then so be it but I will not lay the hefty number without the run and can see this game ending 7-1 Mariners
Jeff Benton
For today, take the Marlins with Dontrelle Willis as small home favorite against the Mets.
I’ll admit that I’m a little worried by Florida’s recent slump (1-5 in its last six, including three losses in a row), and I know the Mets are on fire. But how can argue with the D-Train’s numbers against the Mets? We’re talking a 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA IN 16 starts, 13 of which the Fish have won!
Also, the one win that Florida has scored in the last week came with Dontrelle on the mound, as he led the Marlins to an 11-4 win at Atlanta on Friday. Willis is already off to a 3-0 start to the season with a 3.32 ERA, and he’s receiving a ton of offensive support (9.3 runs per game).
Tonight, Florida takes its hacks against Mets starter John Maine. And if they’re patient, they’ll get to the young righthander. Because while Maine pitched an absolute gem in his debut – he held the Cardinals to just one hit in seven innings in a 10-0 win – he looked very much like a sophomore pitcher in his next start against the Phillies, giving up five hits and six walks in just 4 2/3 innings while throwing 104 pitches!
Also, because of a couple of rainouts last week, Maine comes into this game having not pitched in nine days! For a guy who had control problems in his last outing, that’s not a good thing.
I laid the reasonable price with the D-Train on Sunday against the Braves on the road and got the easy win. It probably won’t be as easy tonight against the talented Mets, but I have no doubt he and the Marlins will deliver once again!
(based on a 1 to a 10 ? Rating)
5? FLORIDA MARLINS
Alex Smart
Rangers at White Sox
Prediction: 'Under
Kevin Millwood, the Rangers' starting pitcher tonight against the Chicago White Sox, enters this contest in top form winning his last two starts while garnering a stable 3.00 ERA. The veteran righty in five career starts versus the ChiSox has been almost un-hittable as evidenced by a 1.32 ERA including a 0.75 ERA at US Cellular Field. His pitching opponent from the South Siders, southpaw Mark Buehrle, started slow in his last outing but progressively became dominant retiring 17 of the last 18 batters he has faced. Buehrle is 8-3 along with a tight 3.29 ERA against the Rangers in his career and owns a respectable 3.75 lifetime ERA at US Cellular. Considering the current form and overall history off both hurlers, recommending the 'under' makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Final notes and trends: Millwood has gone 'under' is 12 of his last 16 road starts. The 'under' is 9-2-1 in Buehrle's last 12 starts with the 'total' between 9 and 10 1/2.
Wednesday Comps
Computer Boys-Milwaukee(baseball)
Feiner-Arizona
Gold Key Games
Silver Key (Bonus Play): Detroit (BONDERMAN) –190
<o
></o>Chris Jordan
500? DIAMONDBACKS (ACTION) - Before you accost me for taking the road team in this clash of NL West contenders, let's take a close look at the travel schedule of the Padres. They played the Sunday night game in L.A. on ESPN, then left for Chicago for a two-game set that started on Monday night and concluded yesterday with a matinee affair that saw Greg Maddux return to Wrigley Field in his fourth career uniform. And let's not forget that was a 14-inning affair as well.
Now the Friars are back home for a game with the D Backs, who will put ace Brandon Webb on the hill. And Arizona has been on the West Coast this whole time. And anytime I find myself being able to go against David Wells, in the right situation, I take full advantage. Boomer comes in off a rough outing against the Dodgers, and will get the early exit in this one as well.
Chuck Franlin
1500? FLORIDA w/WILLIS over NY Mets w/Maine
Marlins lefty ace Dontrelle Willis owns a lifetime 11-2 record against the Mets. He is also already 3-0 this season, and brings a nice low ERA into this match-up with the Mets. I expect Willis to get his fourth win tonight against a team that he has proven to be able to dominate. The Marlins have started the season with a very respectable offense, averaging over five runs a game. In their home ballpark tonight I expect more of the same in their victory over the NY Mets.
1500? WHITE SOX w/BUEHRLE over Texas w/Millwood
The White Sox turned a profit last year at home against right-handed pitching, and also had one of the most dominant offensive teams in the league. This year they have been a little slow out of the gate, but should be able to turn that around as the season progresses, the weather improves, and their power hitters Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye start to hit their stride. This should be an easy home victory for Chicago tonight, as left-hander Mark Buehrle takes the mound for the Sox. He has a career record vs. the Rangers of 8-3, while his opponent, righty Kevin Millwood is 0-2 lifetime against the Chicago White Sox.
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - LOS ANGELES WITH LOWE
Call me stubborn, but I will go against the Rockies again tonight, even though they bit me in the ass with a 5-run 8th last night!
Colorado still has lost 5 of their last 7, while the 1st place Dodgers have won 3 in a row, and are 6-2 on the road this year.
Los Angeles is getting great starting pitching right now, and Derek Lowe is a big part of that, as the righty has worked 15-innings of 2-run ball his last 2 starts for a 2-0 mark!
The Dodgers have already taken 2 of 3 at home from the Rockies, and did go 7-2 last season at Coors Field with Lowe going 1-1 in his 3 Coors starts last season.
LA is playing too well right now, and a 5-run fluke of an inning for the win last night is not enough to get me interested in the Rockies especially with the untested Lopez on the mound.
10 DIMER - FLORIDA MARLINS WITH WILLIS
The Marlins are reeling right now - no pun intended! - as they have lost their last 3, and 5 of 6 as they head back home for this series with the Mets
Look for Florida to snap out of it tonight, as Dontrelle Willis has been a steady customer early on, winning all 3 of his starts this year. Willis is also 11-2 for his career against New York going 3-1 with an ERA under 3 last season.
New York has been playing good baseball on the road this year at 5-2, but they can't seem to figure out how to handle Willis, so I suggest a 10-Dimer on Florida in this spot tonight!
10 DIMER - BOSTON WITH WAKEFIELD
You have to wonder if the whole media hype behind Dice-K is going to hurt the Red Sox on offense this year, as that makes 2 starts in a row the Sox have been shutdown when Matsuzaka is on the hill!
I like the BoSox to snap out of it tonight when Tim Wakefield starts, as Wakefield's knuckleball has been missing opponents bats regularly this spring. Just take a look at his under 2 ERA through his first 2 starts!
The same cannot be said for Tomo Ohka, as he has an ERA approaching 8 through his first 2 assignments.
Hey, Boston was able to score 25 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Angels prior to getting shut down last night. I expect the Sox to erupt for a few runs tonight
Rob House
1,000,000? LA Dodgers W/ Lowe
SportsMemo (Comp)
Andrew Lange
Looking for a low-scoring affair tonight as LA’s John Lackey faces Oakland’s Danny Haren. Lackey will be attempting to win his fifth straight against Oakland and halt a five-game Angels’ losing streak. Lackey (2-1, 2.04 ERA) gave up one run and seven hits in seven innings of work in a 2-1 win over the A’s earlier this season. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last nine starts against the A's and 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts in Oakland since August of 2005. Oakland's Dan Haren (0-2, 2.00) will face Lackey for the second time this season, after a solid performance the first time around. Despite the loss, Haren allowed one ER and six hits in seven innings. Bobby Crosby has had plenty of struggles vs. Lackey, going 5-for-22 and six Ks in his career. Angels left fielder Garret Anderson was hitless in four at-bats on Tuesday, and is just 2-for-20 in his last five games. Vladimir Guerrero out with a bruised right wrist will be out due to a hurt wrist. We see plenty of value and reasons to take the under
Dave Malansky
4* O's Under
4* A's Over
4* Cubs Over
3* Seattle Mariners
Billy Coleman
4* Red Sox w/Wakefield
3* Tex/Chicago under 9 Millwood/Buehrie
Tony Onio
500? FLORIDA
100? BRAVES
100? ARIZONA
Today's Complimentary Play: WHITE SOX
Power Play of the Day
BO Sox 125 (Wakefield listed)
Boxer Sports
(2*) Los Angeles Dodgers
(2*) Boston Red Sox
(2*) Chicago White Sox
Rocketman
2* LA Dodgers
2* Reds
Great Lakes
5* Toronto
4* Minnesota
3* Mets
Glen McGrew (Confirmed)
SF Giants
Redsox Over
Phillies
Computer Boys
<o
></o>Milwaukee (baseball)
<o
></o>Donald Tran
Matchup: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles +120 W/ Bedard
Bobby Bo
Game: Arizona vs San Diego
Prediction: Over 7.5
<o
></o>Bob Balfe:
Devil Rays -125 over Orioles (Kazmir/Bedard)
Professional-Plays
Boston -133
CWS –119
<o
></o>Proffit Plays
<o
></o>Atlanta
NY Mets
Minn
Daily Best Bets
<o
></o>Atlanta
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Money Line: 121
Toronto Blue Jays
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Time: 4/18/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays - Toronto won last night with just 3 hits and that momentum will carry over in to this game. Boston has begun to grab attention on Sports Center with massive HR shots, but they are still batting just 254 on the season. Toronto has a strong, mostly overlooked lineup, batting 294 so far this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-25 and has made 31 units since 1997. Play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher a top-level team (>=62%) playing a team with a winning record, in April. TORONTO is 55-42 (+16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 3 seasons. Note too that Boston does not play well on the faster action artificial turf. BOSTON is 6-17 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons
Jeff Alexander<o
></o><o
></o>1 Unit on Arizona -118 (listing Webb and Wells)
The Padres are 8-22 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons. This stat trend really speaks of the Padres' deficiencies at the plate as does this next one. Arizona is 23-13 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Webb has been nowhere near his best yet n 2007, but I like him to have a stellar start tonight against the poor hitting Pads.
2-Minute Warning
NY YANKEES (IGAWA) over Cleveland (Sowers)
<o
></o>PPP
3 % Cubs
2 % Mets
2 % Pitt
2 % Angels
2 % Toronto
<o
></o>Professorwins
2* Pitt
2* Washington
2* Houston
2* Toronto
5* NY Mets
<o
></o>Locksmith
<o
></o>3.5 Cubs
3 SF
3 LAD
2 LAA
<o
></o>Dave Malinski
4* Baltimore UNDER
4* Oakland OVER
4* Cubs OVER,
3* Seattle
<o
></o>Russ Culver
Nationals +140
Astros +125
Cubs -110
Pirates +123
Rockies +102
Indians +124
Blue Jays +120
Curry Bagwell
Marlins -115
Braves -105
Indians +125
Red Sox -130
Accu Picks
<o
></o>4* Phillies
3* Rockies
3* Whites Sox
