MLB: Thursday April 19th Plays

I may add a couple more plays, as two teams are close to my target.


Cardinals @ Giants
Play: Giants +102
Intrinsic Value:-156
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
Both teams were in dire need of a win last night in hopes to curtail the effects of any early season downward momentum. Thanks to a surprisingly good performance out of the Giants bullpen, they were able to get just their second home win all season. Today they are coming with more value than any other team on the card in my opinion. This is in large part due to Lowry continuing to be one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball, especially when he is pitching at home. Lowry is off to an impressive start, as he is much healthier this year compared to last. He has always been much more effective at home, in large part thanks to the spacious confines that counter his fly ball tendencies. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.25 home ERA, and has actually been somewhat more effective pitching to right handed hitters throughout his career, which should be an asset going up against a lineup that will be loaded up from the right side. There might not be a more struggling lineup in baseball than the Cardinals right now. They once again looked lost at the plate last night, only able to generate 8 hits against very mediocre pitching for 12 innings. They have always been much more dormant against southpaws, something that they will once again have to overcome in this game. Tired bats may be in the batters box in this day game following an extra inning night game. Most hitters will tell you that it is not the speed of the pitch that has the most effect on tired bats, but the higher disparity of pitches. This is exactly what Lowry brings to the table, as he has added speed to his fastball, making his first class changeup that much harder to hit. Lowry is also a workhorse that could avoid a bullpen, and despite the extra inning game, only one Giants pitcher accumulated wear and tear on his arm in Wednesday’s game. The Giants are not the only team expected to rest some key starters. Don’t be surprised if Edmonds and Rolen sit, and more importantly their hottest hitter Duncan, who is not potent against southpaws.

Wells is off to a solid start, but I don’t think it will last much longer. This might be a game in which he witnesses some regression, as he has always been known to struggle on the road, during day games, and against lineups loaded from the left side. He will have to overcome all three variables in order to sustain his hot streak. Even without Bonds in the lineup, he will have to pitch to some left handed bats that have hit him well in limited at bats. Sweeney, expected to be one replacement today, and Roberts are two left handed bats with past success, while the Giants hottest hitter Arillia, has hit him well as well. The Cardinals bullpen got in a lot of work last night, and are not as talented as last years team as far as bullpen is concerned.

Astros @ Reds
Play: Astros +137
Intrinsic Value: +100
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
Once again, the Reds are being overvalued by linesmakers. Since coming to the NL, Arroyo has been able to fool a lot of opposing lineups who have yet to get used to his backwards style of pitching. The Astros are not one of those teams, as they have consistently been able to dominate him throughout his career, including last year where he allowed 16 runs in 24 innings of work. Arroyo is a pitcher heavily dependent on fundamentals. You either get him, or you don’t, and the Astros get him. Both Biggio and Berkman have owned him, while the Astros are expected to load up their lineup from the left side, which should also cause Arroyo problems. Making matters worse for Arroyo this year is that the fact that the Astros added Lee and Lorretta on their team, two more hitters that have owned him in the past. As expected, the Reds bullpen has regressed of late, and is simply one of the worst in baseball. This should allow the Astros to continue their recent success at the plate.

Good bounce back opportunity for Williams. He is a right handed veteran that has been tougher of left handed batters throughout his career, and has been consistently pitching more effective against them. This bodes well for his chances in this game, as most of the Reds talent comes from the left side. Although he has some poor career numbers against this team, they are very misleading. The only player in today’s lineup that has had past success against him is Griffey, while he has actually got the better end of Dunn, Hattenberg, Conine, and Freel. He is also backed by the better bullpen, which should give the Astros the pitching edge in the later innings.

Rangers @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -133
Intrinsic Value: -149
Consider Betting Price: -135
Comment:
I think that last nights no hitter was more of a momentum booster than a next day letdown spot for a White Sox team that was in dire need for something positive to happen to them. Buerhle was not the only player on the team that finally showed a resemblance of his past, as the White Sox lineup displayed the patience and ability to capitalize on location mistakes like they have been able to do the last couple of years. This is a good spot for them to put forth another solid offensive showing, as they face a struggling and inconsistent road pitcher prone to location mistakes and the long ball. Padilla has been dominated in both his road starts this year, and has always been known to not pitch as effectively on the road. Returning to his past form looks improbable as Padilla is on pace for his forth disappointing season in a row. He has not had success in this park in the past, and being prone to the long ball is the last thing you want in this park. He still hasn’t learned how to pitch well to left handed hitters, which may be a problem, as he is more than likely going to have to face five in today’s game. This is also a game in which Posedniks absence will not prove costly as he one had one hit in 17 tries against him. The Rangers bullpen strengths come from the backend holding on to the lead. If the White Sox could avoid that section, they should be able to face some very hittable pitches throughout this game

There are not many pitchers streakier than Vasquesz, and right now he is pitching some really solid baseball. He has allowed just two runs in his first two outings, and has a chance to carry that momentum against a lineup that just got no hit. He is also a right handed hitter that pitches to left handed batters more effectively, an asset you want when facing this Ranges lineup. Although he has had some ugly numbers against the Rangers in the past, the White Sox will have the luxury of putting a short leash on him if his struggles against them continue, as their bullpen has the day off yesterday.

Dodgers @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -129
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:
Cook and the Rockies lineup at home continue to be priced below their intrinsic value in my opinion. This is a good spot for both to put forth solid outings. This is not an ideal match up for Hendrickson, as the last thing you want to be is a fly ball pitcher pitching a day game in Coors. The Rockies love facing these types of pitchers, and have been hitting southpaws well all year. They have four starters batting over .400 against them this year, while they have a three more hitters that although have been struggling against them, have hit southpaws well throughout their career. They have the depth and power throughout their lineup to take advantage of Hendricksons deficiencies. Not expecting to go deep into this game, the Rockies also have a chance to rough up a front end of the Dodgers bullpen who all have struggled pitching against the Rockies throughout this game.

Unlike Hendrickson, who is a flyball pitcher prone to being a victim of the thin air during a day game in which the park is expected to be live, Cook is one of the premier sinkerball pitchers in the league, that could curtail the effects of Coors. He has been pitching effectively in all three of his starts, even though all three were up against left handed loaded lineups, something that he has always struggled against in past years. Cook has been able to put forth a sub four ERA in this park back to back years. He is also backed by a bullpen that has allowed just two runs in the last eleven innings of work.

+.12 Yesterday

+17.76 YTD

do you know why i couldnt see your plays until after 12pm, but it shows you posted at 10am?

like all the picks. i like the yankees, mets and phillies. 3 public teams i know. im very suprised you dont have the cubs on here. -117. hill has done well against the braves and is becoming one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball. this is extremely cheap. facing redman, whom is god awful. maybe the most shocking line ive seen this year

finman13 said:

do you know why i couldnt see your plays until after 12pm, but it shows you posted at 10am?

like all the picks. i like the yankees, mets and phillies. 3 public teams i know. im very suprised you dont have the cubs on here. -117. hill has done well against the braves and is becoming one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball. this is extremely cheap. facing redman, whom is god awful. maybe the most shocking line ive seen this year

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Probably on a different time zone. GL fin and Buff.

well usually if i have this up and hit refresh/and or do a new search it comes up. oh well. anyway, someone has got to explain that cubs line which is 40pts off to me

Buffett, aren't you a bit concerned by some of the guys in the dodger lineup absolutely owning cook?

finman13 said:

do you know why i couldnt see your plays until after 12pm, but it shows you posted at 10am?

like all the picks. i like the yankees, mets and phillies. 3 public teams i know. im very suprised you dont have the cubs on here. -117. hill has done well against the braves and is becoming one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball. this is extremely cheap. facing redman, whom is god awful. maybe the most shocking line ive seen this year

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Not sure why you couldn't see the post.

Regarding the Cubs, I valued them at -100 today. Hill has caught the publics eye, and has now become a "hot" play. He has been dominant, and has the pitching arsenal to continue to be dominant. However, his first two opponents were tailor made for him to pick apart. I still need to see some more solid road outings out of him, as he really struggled away from home last year. The Cubs are finding ways to lose, and betting them as a road favorite against solid team has its risks. Redman is a good go-against, but his recent struggles are now fully reflected in the line. The Cubs are better suited against power pitchers, something Redman is not. Not much success against Redman in today's lineup. I would pass at that price, but good luck.

OSUCOWBOYS said:

+.12 Yesterday

+17.76 YTD

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'
This buffet's record or OSU ?

tk2wndw said:

Buffett, aren't you a bit concerned by some of the guys in the dodger lineup absolutely owning cook?

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Definately a concern, but a lot of his struggles last year were against hitters no longer on the team or expected to be in todays lineup. Also, four of his six starts agianst them were actually solid, but his last two really inflated his numbers. He had a case of dead arm late last year when the Dodgers got to him twice. He looks much shaper on the mound this year. He should also be backed by ideal run support. Good luck.

Buffets DOCUMENTED record. My record is not as good as I do not have Matchbook.com as an out. Without them you will NEVER find some of the lines Buffet posts. All part of being a winning capper is to have the best outs possible. It is my fault I don't have an account set up with Matchbook.com.

I am referring to Nomar, Kent, and Gonzalez.

tk2wndw said:

I am referring to Nomar, Kent, and Gonzalez.

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Yes, I know. They left two of them out last night specifically to face Cook today. No denying their success, but I do feel Cook is a better pitcher than the one on the mound when most of those numbers were accumulated. I wouldnt be suprised if they continue to get to him, but he should be backed by some run support.

I like the Dodgers but never like taking a guy in his first start at coors in Hendrickson.

tk2wndw said:

I like the Dodgers but never like taking a guy in his first start at coors in Hendrickson.

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Good luck. I don't think we see much of him if he struggles. Billingsley might end up pitching more than he does. Be he has not had success against the Rockies.

has zach duke ever pitched a scoreless first inning in the majors?

solid points on the cubs game buffett. however, i think the cubs struggles is reflected in the line. i dont put much stock in home field advantage first of all. secondly, the pitching matchup alone should be a 2 to 1 advantage for the cubs. since the braves are playing better overall baseball, hitting at least, id knock the line down to 160/155. the cubs hitters may suit redmans pitching style and vice versa with hill. however, being slightly facetious id say if you suck you suck:+) with all that spew from me, redman will pitch fantastic tonight and the cubs will again find a way to lose. the line is so good to me, ill probably stay away. funny thing is more money coming on the braves. gl everyone

wow, arod does it again to save my early plays. pirates couldnt complet the trifecta. need a miracl comeback by the rockies. wished id pulled the trigger on the padres and the redsox, but thought i was piling up too many plays. lets roll with the cubs. chisox, and mets tonight. the big dutchmen is in trouble against the mets tonight.