I may add a couple more plays, as two teams are close to my target.
Cardinals @ Giants
Play: Giants +102
Intrinsic Value:-156
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
Both teams were in dire need of a win last night in hopes to curtail the effects of any early season downward momentum. Thanks to a surprisingly good performance out of the Giants bullpen, they were able to get just their second home win all season. Today they are coming with more value than any other team on the card in my opinion. This is in large part due to Lowry continuing to be one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball, especially when he is pitching at home. Lowry is off to an impressive start, as he is much healthier this year compared to last. He has always been much more effective at home, in large part thanks to the spacious confines that counter his fly ball tendencies. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.25 home ERA, and has actually been somewhat more effective pitching to right handed hitters throughout his career, which should be an asset going up against a lineup that will be loaded up from the right side. There might not be a more struggling lineup in baseball than the Cardinals right now. They once again looked lost at the plate last night, only able to generate 8 hits against very mediocre pitching for 12 innings. They have always been much more dormant against southpaws, something that they will once again have to overcome in this game. Tired bats may be in the batters box in this day game following an extra inning night game. Most hitters will tell you that it is not the speed of the pitch that has the most effect on tired bats, but the higher disparity of pitches. This is exactly what Lowry brings to the table, as he has added speed to his fastball, making his first class changeup that much harder to hit. Lowry is also a workhorse that could avoid a bullpen, and despite the extra inning game, only one Giants pitcher accumulated wear and tear on his arm in Wednesday’s game. The Giants are not the only team expected to rest some key starters. Don’t be surprised if Edmonds and Rolen sit, and more importantly their hottest hitter Duncan, who is not potent against southpaws.
Wells is off to a solid start, but I don’t think it will last much longer. This might be a game in which he witnesses some regression, as he has always been known to struggle on the road, during day games, and against lineups loaded from the left side. He will have to overcome all three variables in order to sustain his hot streak. Even without Bonds in the lineup, he will have to pitch to some left handed bats that have hit him well in limited at bats. Sweeney, expected to be one replacement today, and Roberts are two left handed bats with past success, while the Giants hottest hitter Arillia, has hit him well as well. The Cardinals bullpen got in a lot of work last night, and are not as talented as last years team as far as bullpen is concerned.
Cardinals @ Giants
Play: Giants +102
Intrinsic Value:-156
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
Both teams were in dire need of a win last night in hopes to curtail the effects of any early season downward momentum. Thanks to a surprisingly good performance out of the Giants bullpen, they were able to get just their second home win all season. Today they are coming with more value than any other team on the card in my opinion. This is in large part due to Lowry continuing to be one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball, especially when he is pitching at home. Lowry is off to an impressive start, as he is much healthier this year compared to last. He has always been much more effective at home, in large part thanks to the spacious confines that counter his fly ball tendencies. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.25 home ERA, and has actually been somewhat more effective pitching to right handed hitters throughout his career, which should be an asset going up against a lineup that will be loaded up from the right side. There might not be a more struggling lineup in baseball than the Cardinals right now. They once again looked lost at the plate last night, only able to generate 8 hits against very mediocre pitching for 12 innings. They have always been much more dormant against southpaws, something that they will once again have to overcome in this game. Tired bats may be in the batters box in this day game following an extra inning night game. Most hitters will tell you that it is not the speed of the pitch that has the most effect on tired bats, but the higher disparity of pitches. This is exactly what Lowry brings to the table, as he has added speed to his fastball, making his first class changeup that much harder to hit. Lowry is also a workhorse that could avoid a bullpen, and despite the extra inning game, only one Giants pitcher accumulated wear and tear on his arm in Wednesday’s game. The Giants are not the only team expected to rest some key starters. Don’t be surprised if Edmonds and Rolen sit, and more importantly their hottest hitter Duncan, who is not potent against southpaws.
Wells is off to a solid start, but I don’t think it will last much longer. This might be a game in which he witnesses some regression, as he has always been known to struggle on the road, during day games, and against lineups loaded from the left side. He will have to overcome all three variables in order to sustain his hot streak. Even without Bonds in the lineup, he will have to pitch to some left handed bats that have hit him well in limited at bats. Sweeney, expected to be one replacement today, and Roberts are two left handed bats with past success, while the Giants hottest hitter Arillia, has hit him well as well. The Cardinals bullpen got in a lot of work last night, and are not as talented as last years team as far as bullpen is concerned.