ATP Picks 4-19-07 (8-8-1, -169)

ATP · Apr 19, 2007

Bad day yesterday with Felix going down in the first.

1. Toronto -1.5 EVEN

We get one of the best pitchers in baseball vs one of the worst in this matchup. Halladay has been virtually unhittable of late, with his team going 3-0 in his starts while Tavarez only went 4 Innings in his initial start an 8-4 loss to Texas. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are a combined 8/15 lifetime vs Tavarez which doesnt bode well for the Sox, and the league is hitting .333 against him. Ill lay the run and a half and expect the Toronto offense to do more than enough to back Halladay today.

YTD: (8-8-1) -$169

Back with more later

ATP · Apr 19, 2007

Going 100/100 On toronto -1.5

ATP · Apr 19, 2007

3. Washington +126

Not the type of team i will want to bet a lot but it appears that Patterson is getting back in his right form and the Phillies are just in total disarray right now, going 13 innings last night with this team and just not getting the job done when it counts. I heard Howard is having an MRI done which doensnt bode well for the phils. The Phils find themselves as the worst team in the league at 3-10. Not only have they been bad this year but they are only 1-4 SU over the last 5 when playing in Washington. Ill take the dog here with the Nats who are simply playing better baseball than the Phillies.

4. NYY/CLEV OVER 11 -115

The Yankee bats are out and in full stride lately pounding on Westbrook and Sowers and now Carmona comes to Yankee Stadium with and ERA of over 12, not good. Rasner hasnt pitched terrible in his first two starts but he hasnt gone long in either going only 5.3 and 4.3 innings and he hasnt faced a linup with the gunpower of Cleveland facing Baltimore and Oakland in his only starts. The total has gone over in 8 of the last 11 Yankee homegames and 6 of the last 8 when playing the Indians in Yankee Stadium. The bullpen has been used a ton in the first two games for Cleveland if it gets out of hand at all early watch out for a barrage of runs.

50/63 Washington

115/100 OVER 11 NYY

bblater with more

ATP · Apr 19, 2007

Actually have only had three plays today, wrote #4 on my third in last

4. Padres -190 W/Over 6.5 SD/ARZ -125

I absolutly love what Jake Peavy has done this season going 2-0 with an ERA of .9 while Livan has been no slouch either at 1-0 with an ERA of 1.8. Through three starts this year the Pads have finally given him a season of run support scoring 7, 2, and 7 in his three starts respectively. Neither pitcher has been completly shutting down the other team in this matchup with Peavy giving up 2,3, and 6 ER against this squad over his last three and livan giving up 1,5, and 2 ER while neither has gone deeper than 7 in any of those starts against each other. With Arizona winning 5 road games in a row and the way each of the teams bullpens have had to work i would expect some kind of runs in this game and this being the lowest over under total of the season it just looks like the time to jump on it, that being said I do expect Peavy to pitch well give up 2 or 3 so The pads will need to score 4-5 runs today against Livan who has been pitching better than he is.

Go with a small parlay of 69/120

ATP · Apr 19, 2007

5. Chicago Cubs -119

All signs point to the cubbies in this one, with Atlanta having 4 losses this season three of them have been vs lefties. The cubs are 0-1 vs lefties but mark redman has been absolutly dreadful since joining the bravos going 0-2 with nearly a 13 ERA. While he has struggled check out the young southpaw Rich Hill who has been on fire since the end of last year. This guy is sizzling with an ERA of .64 and picking up 2 of the cubs few wins. In his two starts this year the cubs have outscored their opponents 16-3, while Redmans starts are 5 for the braves and 22 for the opposition. I would expect to see a lot of the braves bullpen which has improved but that part of the bullpen is usually used when they are ahead, this game could get out of hand if the Cubs can jump out early.

6. Twins/Seattle OVER 7 (-115)

The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games between these two teams including 5 of the last 6 in seattle. The twins are starting to heat up in run production and they got into Seattles bullpen last night without retiring one man in the first due to the Hernandez injury. Though Santana has been absolutly sick vs Seattle when it comes to winning games he has been hittable if you break down the lineup, the following batters all have .300+ batting averages vs the CY Young winer: Ibanez, Sexson, Vidro, Beltre, Ichiro, and Jojhima. After being embaressed two nights ago and getting blitzed early last night expect a better performance from them. With the the top six hitters for Seattle batting well against Santana makes run potential very possible. Washburn's only start vs Minn last year was a 7 Inning 4 ER performance, and expecting a similar performance from him and the potential of Seattle to score I would expect this game to go over the total.

119/100 Cubs
230/200 Twins OVER 7

ATP · Apr 19, 2007

7. Seattle +1.5 -105

Given the same reasons above I expect Seattle to play a good game, with 6 guys in the lineup actually hitting Santana on a career basis. Seattle trying to avoid a home sweep, Ill take the run and a half for a small wager.

53/50 :103631605

ATP · Apr 19, 2007

8. Tex/CHW UNDER 9 -120

Texas enters this game after being totally baffled by Burhle last night and now they get hard throwing Vasquez who enters this game with a 2-0 record and 1.5 ERA. Texas is a lackluster 2-6 on the road but although Padilla is 0-3 with a 6+ ERA I expect better things from him tonight. He is better than those numbers and his last two starts vs this team he was completly in control throwing 15 innings and allowing only 1 ER. 8 of the Whitesox's last 11 games have gone under the total and 4 of the last 5 at home. While Im looking for another no-hitter, I feel that both starters should be able to keep the opposing offenses in check and out of the big inning.

90/75 Under 9 WSox :103631605