Friday, 04.20.07 - Picks by the Numbers - [41-20]

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Dreamin' Big
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41-20, +23.38 units

I'm looking at the Cards/Cubs game and may have a play. I have all the numbers out in front of me but I need a few other things that I won't be able to look up until later on this morning. I'll be up at least two hours before the first pitch and give you guys the play if it is worth making an investment in.
 

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Record:
41-20, +23.38 units

I'm looking at the Cards/Cubs game and may have a play. I have all the numbers out in front of me but I need a few other things that I won't be able to look up until later on this morning. I'll be up at least two hours before the first pitch and give you guys the play if it is worth making an investment in.
cards sound good but they might be + tomorrow man.......
 

Dreamin' Big
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cards sound good but they might be + tomorrow man.......

I'm liking them too and they are + money right now and should remain that way. Lilly is still being overpriced and I love it. But, I want to see what lineup Tony La Russa throws at him and what lineup Lou Pineilla throws at Braden Looper. There is some key guys on the Cubs that aren't very well known that can hit Looper. If they're all in the lineup, the Cards aren't worth investing money into, if those guys are out AND La Russa puts up a solid lineup vs. Lilly, we're in good shape.
 

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Any thoughts on the Twins/KC game?...the line just seems like they are under valuing ponson and the twins
 

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Yeah, obviously I'm biased, but I love the twins at -116 or so.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Any thoughts on the Twins/KC game?...the line just seems like they are under valuing ponson and the twins

Both pitchers suck in this situation lol. I'm liking the over but don't know if it's worthy of any investments. The Royals are a better team this year than they have been recently. They have a few pieces that they're building around and the home crowd is starting to fall in love with the team. The place won't be packed, nor will it be for years, but they certainly will have some motivation. The Twins have been hot and stand at the top of their division, 6 games ahead of the Royals.

This is a really tough game to cap. I honestly have no lean one way or the other. The numbers don't give me a lean nor does my own personal baseball knowledge. The only lean would be the Twins because they are the better team, but why risk any money with a guy like Sidney Ponson on the mound? What's even worse is how Joe Nathan got hit hard yesterday. I'm pretty sure it was just a mistake and not a sign of things to come, but what if he blows a one-run lead tonight because of another small mistake?

I truly see no value in this game either way. Like I said earlier, the only play I'd jump on in this game is the over. If I have more for you later, I'll post it. Good luck with whatever decision you make.



Great start to the year, GL this weekend:smoking:

Thank you sir. Right back at you.
 

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Good analysis. On a side note, I think Nathan is in for some serious trouble. He has looked shaky in most of his outings this year. Hopefully he subsides, but good point. Keep up the good work!
 

Dreamin' Big
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Here's what I just heard...

Ryan Theriot will play second base AND leadoff.
Mark Derosa is playing RF while Jacque Jones is playing CF.
Henry Blanco is starting behind the plate.
I'm guessing the rest of the lineup stays the same, meaning Cliff Floyd in LF, Cesar Isturiz at short, Aramis Ramirez at third, and Derrek Lee at first.

That outfield looks like CRAP! Floyd in LF, Jones in CF, and a Derosa in RF??? Pineilla is nuts!

If anyone has more info on this and/or the Cardinals lineup, please let me know.
 

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Cardinals Lineup

1. Eckstein
2. Duncan
3. Pujols
4. Rolen
5. Edmonds
6. Wilson
7. Molina
8. Kennedy
9. Looper
 

Dreamin' Big
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Cardinals ML (+130)

It's a play. On a scale of 1-10 I'd rate this a 7, tops. So don't put the farm on this game, but I believe it's worth a solid investment. A lot of things point at the Cardinals winning but something as small as seeing the Cubs starting outfield today makes me like them even more. Look for La Russa to have his guys testing the arms of these guys throughout the whole game and I think the Cardinals will pass those tests more times than not. Blanco starting behind the plate one night after Michael Barrett hits a home run makes no sense, but Cub managers lately haven't been making much sense. Theriot, the leadoff man for the Cubs today, has never seen Braden Looper, the starter for the Cardinals today. I think he'll have a tough time against the former closer who has looked very good in three starts so far this season. Another key stat...
Cardinals vs. LHP this season: 3-2 (3-7 vs. RHP)
Cubs vs. RHP this season: 5-8 (1-1 vs. LHP)

Good luck peeps.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Cardinals Lineup

1. Eckstein
2. Duncan
3. Pujols
4. Rolen
5. Edmonds
6. Wilson
7. Molina
8. Kennedy
9. Looper

Thank you sir, Cubs lineup is out also;
Theriot, FLOYD, Lee, Ramirez, Derosa, Jones, Blanco, Izturis, Lily.

Why is Floyd hitting second?? I love the Cardinals even more now.

Someone I like seeing in that Cardinals lineup is Adam Kennedy. Look for him to play a solid role in today's game.

I'm going out for a while and should be back during the game. I'll have some plays for tonight later on as usual.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Another quick comment:
Why isn't Barrett playing?? He loves to hit vs. Looper. He's 7/11 with 2 doubles. For someone that loves to look at stats, Pineilla is messing up with that decision. Only acceptable reason for Blanco starting today is if Barrett is injured or just in need of some rest.
 

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Cardinals ML (+130)

It's a play. On a scale of 1-10 I'd rate this a 7, tops. So don't put the farm on this game, but I believe it's worth a solid investment. A lot of things point at the Cardinals winning but something as small as seeing the Cubs starting outfield today makes me like them even more. Look for La Russa to have his guys testing the arms of these guys throughout the whole game and I think the Cardinals will pass those tests more times than not. Blanco starting behind the plate one night after Michael Barrett hits a home run makes no sense, but Cub managers lately haven't been making much sense. Theriot, the leadoff man for the Cubs today, has never seen Braden Looper, the starter for the Cardinals today. I think he'll have a tough time against the former closer who has looked very good in three starts so far this season. Another key stat...
Cardinals vs. LHP this season: 3-2 (3-7 vs. RHP)
Cubs vs. RHP this season: 5-8 (1-1 vs. LHP)

Good luck peeps.

Cards are 3-3 vs LH's... and are hitting .210 in those 176 AB's.

Best of luck.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Cards are 3-3 vs LH's... and are hitting .210 in those 176 AB's.

Best of luck.

Good call. Bodog has them as 3-2 vs. them. Just confirmed w/ MLB.com that they are 3-3. Regardless, this Cubs lineup makes no sense to me and the rest of the numbers are favoring the Cards. Should be a good game today, especially if the Cards bring some money back home lol. Weather is GREAT.
 

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Good call. Bodog has them as 3-2 vs. them. Just confirmed w/ MLB.com that they are 3-3. Regardless, this Cubs lineup makes no sense to me and the rest of the numbers are favoring the Cards. Should be a good game today, especially if the Cards bring some money back home lol. Weather is GREAT.

What numbers are you referring too??? They do not have one better ranking in any offensive category:

St. Louis:
Runs/G 3.2 Rank 28
BA .232 Rank 26
OBS .696 Rank 29
HR 9 Rank 23
SB 4 Rank 27

Chicago (Cubs):
Runs/G 4.47 Rank 18
BA .260 Rank 9
OBS .710 Rank 14
HR 11 Rank 21
SB 11 Rank 7

I'm not trying to be a smart ass.. just don't kno what you mean by every other numbers favor the Cards. And out of the 5 major defensive categories the Cards only favored in 1 and Cubs favored in 3 big time with a tie in WHIP.
 

Dreamin' Big
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What numbers are you referring too??? They do not have one better ranking in any offensive category:

St. Louis:
Runs/G 3.2 Rank 28
BA .232 Rank 26
OBS .696 Rank 29
HR 9 Rank 23
SB 4 Rank 27

Chicago (Cubs):
Runs/G 4.47 Rank 18
BA .260 Rank 9
OBS .710 Rank 14
HR 11 Rank 21
SB 11 Rank 7

I'm not trying to be a smart ass.. just don't kno what you mean by every other numbers favor the Cards. And out of the 5 major defensive categories the Cards only favored in 1 and Cubs favored in 3 big time with a tie in WHIP.

Those numbers are derived from 11 games that each team has played respectively. That's almost 1/16th of the season. The numbers I use are career for players and historical team vs. team stats. I use this years stats as well, but I don't pay attention to them all that much until at least June.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Bout damn time the Cardinals showed SOME signs of life. Jesus Christ! :lolBIG:

We have a whiles to go though folks, I don't trust Izzy and the Cards bullpen at all, especially in Wrigley.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Cardinals win 2-1.
Crazy ballgame.

1-0, +1.30 units on the day so far.

I'm going to grab some grub and then finish up my work on tonight's games and post more plays.
 

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