I added an updated record from before yesterday's games at the bottom of this thread for record purposes. Thanks to Baseball Madness for bringing the errors to my attention.
Record after yesterday's games:
Favorites: 35-13 for +17.10 units
Underdogs: 12-7 +7.18 units
Total: 40-19 for +24.28 units
Great day yesterday, going 7-1 and picking up almost 6 units. I'd complain about the Tribe giving me my one loss in the bottom of the 9th, but I was the recipient of a couple come from behind wins myself. Anyway, I posted 2 early plays here, and I'll be adding some.
NY Mets +110: I think Hudson is a very good pitcher, but I love this line. On its face it looks like a huge pitching mismatch, but there's more to it than that. We may very well be seeing the return of the Hudson from his Oakland days, but it's possible the public is overhyping his hot start. We can't forget that he put up a 5.38 ERA in 17 road starts last year, along with a 5.67 ERA in 4 starts against the Mets. We also can't ignore how well some members of this hot Mets offense have hit Hudson in the past. Beltran is batting .349 in 43 ABs against Hudson, with 3 HRs, 10 RBI, a .429 OBP and .581 SLG. Carlos Delgado is batting .326 against Hudson, with 5 HRs, a .453 OBP, and a .744 SLG. Lo Duca has also hit Hudson well in the past, with 6 hits in 11 ABs.
I understand that Pelfrey is only a rookie. I don't want to overestimate this kid, but he's one of the best young pitchers that will get the call up this year. He'll be pitching at home again tomorrow and will likely start to feel a little more comfortable. And this will be more so if, as I expect, the Mets are able to get to Hudson for a few runs. The Mets have the better offense, the better defense, the better bullpen, and overall a much better team than the Braves. I think getting +110 on this offense in this situation is great value. 1 unit to win 1.10.
Cleveland -190: Wasn't sure what would happen with this line, so I took what I could get last night before it was available on MB. Only made it official for half a unit because I don't like paying this much chalk, but I still think it's solid value. CC has absolutely dominated the D-Rays throughout his career. He's 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a .230 BAA. In fact, not a single member of this Tampa team has ever hit CC well (although not that many have double digit at bats against him). We've always known CC had the skills. It was always just whether he could actually stay healthy and perform to the best of his ability. I think we're finally seeing the CC everyone expected (3-0, 2.14 ERA, 19 Ks v. 6 BBs).
Over on the other side, Tampa is sending Edwin Jackson, who has given up 8 ERs in 8.2 innings against Texas and Minnesota. If that's the kind of production offenses like that can put up against this kid, what should we expect from an angry Indians offense? Last night I played this for 0.95 units to win 0.5. I'm either going to add another half unit at the current price of around -176, or possible put 1 full unit on my first RL play of the year. Will update this later.
Cincinatti -123: I'm not completely sold that Lohse is for real this year, but there's no arguing that he's looked great thus far. Added to the fact that Howard is out for the slumping Phillies offense again, -123 is too low. Lieber is a solid pitcher, but coming out of the bullpen to start is not an easy change to make. I just can't see him going more than 5, possibly 6 innings at most anyways, and the Phillies bullpen has quite a bit to be desired. 1.23 units to win 1.
Currently I have leans on the Cubs (again), Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Washington.
Record before yesterday's games:
Favorites: 30-13 for +12.10 units
Underdogs: 10-6 for +6.31 units
Record after yesterday's games:
Favorites: 35-13 for +17.10 units
Underdogs: 12-7 +7.18 units
Total: 40-19 for +24.28 units
Great day yesterday, going 7-1 and picking up almost 6 units. I'd complain about the Tribe giving me my one loss in the bottom of the 9th, but I was the recipient of a couple come from behind wins myself. Anyway, I posted 2 early plays here, and I'll be adding some.
NY Mets +110: I think Hudson is a very good pitcher, but I love this line. On its face it looks like a huge pitching mismatch, but there's more to it than that. We may very well be seeing the return of the Hudson from his Oakland days, but it's possible the public is overhyping his hot start. We can't forget that he put up a 5.38 ERA in 17 road starts last year, along with a 5.67 ERA in 4 starts against the Mets. We also can't ignore how well some members of this hot Mets offense have hit Hudson in the past. Beltran is batting .349 in 43 ABs against Hudson, with 3 HRs, 10 RBI, a .429 OBP and .581 SLG. Carlos Delgado is batting .326 against Hudson, with 5 HRs, a .453 OBP, and a .744 SLG. Lo Duca has also hit Hudson well in the past, with 6 hits in 11 ABs.
I understand that Pelfrey is only a rookie. I don't want to overestimate this kid, but he's one of the best young pitchers that will get the call up this year. He'll be pitching at home again tomorrow and will likely start to feel a little more comfortable. And this will be more so if, as I expect, the Mets are able to get to Hudson for a few runs. The Mets have the better offense, the better defense, the better bullpen, and overall a much better team than the Braves. I think getting +110 on this offense in this situation is great value. 1 unit to win 1.10.
Cleveland -190: Wasn't sure what would happen with this line, so I took what I could get last night before it was available on MB. Only made it official for half a unit because I don't like paying this much chalk, but I still think it's solid value. CC has absolutely dominated the D-Rays throughout his career. He's 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a .230 BAA. In fact, not a single member of this Tampa team has ever hit CC well (although not that many have double digit at bats against him). We've always known CC had the skills. It was always just whether he could actually stay healthy and perform to the best of his ability. I think we're finally seeing the CC everyone expected (3-0, 2.14 ERA, 19 Ks v. 6 BBs).
Over on the other side, Tampa is sending Edwin Jackson, who has given up 8 ERs in 8.2 innings against Texas and Minnesota. If that's the kind of production offenses like that can put up against this kid, what should we expect from an angry Indians offense? Last night I played this for 0.95 units to win 0.5. I'm either going to add another half unit at the current price of around -176, or possible put 1 full unit on my first RL play of the year. Will update this later.
Cincinatti -123: I'm not completely sold that Lohse is for real this year, but there's no arguing that he's looked great thus far. Added to the fact that Howard is out for the slumping Phillies offense again, -123 is too low. Lieber is a solid pitcher, but coming out of the bullpen to start is not an easy change to make. I just can't see him going more than 5, possibly 6 innings at most anyways, and the Phillies bullpen has quite a bit to be desired. 1.23 units to win 1.
Currently I have leans on the Cubs (again), Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Washington.
Record before yesterday's games:
Favorites: 30-13 for +12.10 units
Underdogs: 10-6 for +6.31 units
