MLB: Friday April 20th Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 20, 2007

I may add at least one more play.

Blue Jays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -116
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider betting Price: -148
Comment:
A lot of hidden value on the Orioles, as I was expecting them to trade well below their intrinsic value in this game. Cabrera has had some of the nastiest and overpowering stuff since coming to the big leagues, but his lack of command in prior years prevented him from being a dominant pitcher. However, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year (literally and figuratively as he actually is two inches taller this year) as he has shown solid command on the mound, and has walked just one batter in the last two starts combined. He has always been much more comfortable pitching at home, and his night numbers compared to his day game numbers appear to be beyond randomness, as he has put forth a career 3.96 night ERA as opposed to a 6.18 day game ERA. He eats up right handed hitters, which could be a problem for a right handed loaded lineup like the Blue Jays. He has also been getting progressively more effective against the left handed batters he has faced. Last year, there was not a lineup in baseball that Cabrera dominated more than the Blue Jays, as he pitched 27 innings against them, yet allowed just four runs. He has dominated a lot of the hitters that will be in today’s lineup. The Blue Jays lineup is not as potent with two key hitters injured, Glauss and Johnson. Without them, they are not more dependent on Wells, which does not bode well for their chances in this game, as he comes into it with just one hit in 19 at bats against Cabrera. The Blue Jays are a much less potent hitting on the road, and have not looked good at the plate in recent games. Cabrera is finally not being backed by a bullpen that is a liability, as they improved as much as any other team in baseball in the off season.

Burnett has not looked sharp in the early going, as his lack of command has plagued his career as well. He has been known to struggle more on the road, and got roughed up in his only road outing this year. His lack of control combined with his propensity to go for the strikeout in every at bat leads him to accumulate a high pitch count in the early going. The Blue Jays pen has struggled of late, and are not terribly talented without Ryan. The Orioles lineup is coming off a series in which they finally appeared to break out of their early season funk, and have been are also a team that hits much better at home. The Orioles lineup also matches up much better against right handed pitching, and will throw five left handers at Burnett. The Blue Jays lack a reliable southpaw in the bullpen as well.

buffettgambler · Apr 20, 2007

Padres @ Rockies
Play: Padres -106
Intrinsic Value: -165
Consider Betting Price: -147
Comment:
Here is another game in which deviates drastically from its intrinsic value in my opinion. This is a good bounce back spot for Young, as he remains the most undervalued road pitcher in baseball. Despite being a notorious fly ball pitcher, Young has had success in Coors, which could also be said for almost any other road park in baseball. He has a career 3.28 road ERA. Young’s massive size and unorthodox delivery gave the Rockies young lineup problems last year, as there is not one hitter in today’s lineup with past success against him. What makes him hard is the fact that he is equally dominant against left handed hitters as he is on right handed ones. Last year, he put forth five starts against the Rockies, and finished with a sub 3 ERA and an OBA of .205. Young is also backed by the best bullpen in the national league, and a bullpen that did a good job resting their better pitchers yesterday, as they got a much needed rest. The Rockies looked flat at the plate yesterday, and could not capitalize on going against a sub par fly ball pitcher and sub par relief.

Don’t expect Fogg’s solid start to the season to last much longer. He just isn’t a good pitcher. In fact, he has finished with a five plus ERA in three of his last four seasons. Despite being a sinkerball pitcher, Fogg was horrible in Coors last year, and was vulnerable to the long ball. He allowed a home run in this park one every five innings, and finished out the year with a six plus ERA in Coors. He was also dominated by the Padres last year, who managed to hit .310 against him in five starts. Like most sinkerball pitchers, Fogg is vulnerable to left handed hitters. He has been dominated by them throughout his career, and they have actually been able to hit over .300 against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Padres will more than likely put four left handers at the plate in this game. Fogg is backed by a sub par bullpen. The Padres are a much more dangerous lineup outside of their home park.

buffettgambler · Apr 20, 2007

Diamondbacks @ Giants
Play: Giants -106
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting Price: -107
Comment:
This is an interesting match up, as both starting pitchers have pitched much differently than their numbers would suggest. Although Ortiz comes into today’s game with a five plus ERA, he has pitched much better than those numbers would suggest. It is no coincidence either, as he is a different pitcher than the one we have seen on the mound the last couple of years. He has worked on a mechanical glitch that was plaguing his career and shot his confidence. Now that it is fixed, his confidence is back, and has been getting hitters out. In fact, he went into the 9th inning of his last start having allowed just two runs. In the past, he has pitched well in this park, and has done a good job fooling young hitters that have not seen him in the past. This should give him the embedded advantage in this game, as all 8 hitters in tonight’s lineup do not have more than one at bat against him. Both the Giants and Diamondbacks played extra inning games on Wednesday night and followed it up with a day game yesterday. Conserving the bullpen in yesterdays game was a must for both teams, yet the Giants were the only one that was successful in doing so.

I am baffled to how Davis comes into this game with a 3.38 ERA on the season. He has pitched horribly. In fact, two of his games, he went just five innings and allowed 13 baserunners in those innings. He has had no command of his pitches, and ahs walked 12 batters in just 16 innings of work. This does not bode well for his chances in today’s game, as he will be up against a veteran lineup that will not help him out. Sooner of later, his 2.13 WHIP will result in a lot of runs allowed, and this may be the game, as the Giants hitters have been hitting the ball better of late. Davis has also never pitched well on the road, including some poor outings in this park in past years. He has not had past success against the Giants either, and will have to face a few hitters that have hit him well in past years. Davis’s lack of command has forced him to accumulate high pitch counts, and leave games early. He is backed by a tired and sub par bullpen which should allow the Giants to face some hittable pitching throughout this game.

Jibba · Apr 20, 2007

On the Padres with you and was about to post my O's play. Didn't have a strong feel for the Giants game, but will likely follow you on that one. BOL and thanks as always.

finman13 · Apr 20, 2007

fantastic day yesterday. only game i was wrong on was the pirates. even hit a nice parlay with baseball, anaheim and under the the stars/canucks game.

now on to today. dont see much value on the card, but i do agree with your 3 selections buffett. keeping an eye on the rangers and brewers. could also add the marlins, pretty cheap price because the nats have played decent lately. buffett what our your values on the dodgers and drays games? i might have interest in those games as well. terrific writeups as usual.

finman13 · Apr 20, 2007

actually might take a stab on the phillies as well.

finman13 · Apr 20, 2007

does anyone think you will see hill for the cubs that cheap the rest of the year? that guy might be starting the all star game!

CarolinaKid · Apr 20, 2007

imo the best play in the tor/balt is the under as i see about 5 to 6 runs top in this game tonite.gl.....ck

buffettgambler · Apr 20, 2007

finman13 said:
fantastic day yesterday. only game i was wrong on was the pirates. even hit a nice parlay with baseball, anaheim and under the the stars/canucks game.

now on to today. dont see much value on the card, but i do agree with your 3 selections buffett. keeping an eye on the rangers and brewers. could also add the marlins, pretty cheap price because the nats have played decent lately. buffett what our your values on the dodgers and drays games? i might have interest in those games as well. terrific writeups as usual.

Congrats on yesterday Finman.

I valued the Dodgers at -168, which is right in line with the market price. I see no value on either side of that game.

As far as the Drays game goes, and did not derive a value, as Jackson is nearly impossible to quantify. It would be a shot in the dark.

As far as Hill, I don't think you will see him undervalued for quite some time. I actually thought he was pricey yesterday. His pitching ability is no longer a secret, and he will have to witness a setback for the public to get off his bandwagon. With the way he looks on the mound, that might be a while.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 20, 2007

+2.10 Yesterday

+19.86 YTD

These results are just 18 days into the season.

buffettgambler · Apr 20, 2007

Cardinals @ Cubs
Play: Cardinals +132
Intrinsic Value: +114
Consider Betting Price: +131
Comment:
I didn’t think I would find my self betting on the Cardinals when going up against a southpaw, but I feel that their recent woes are finally fully reflected in the market price. Looper has been rock solid since taking over the starter’s role. All three starts have been quality, and has allowed less than a hit per inning in two of them. This is potentially a good spot to put forth his fourth solid outing in a row, as he is facing a team that he has had past success against as a reliever. He has been harder to pick up during day games, and although he has been more successful at home, has had success when pitching in this park. He dominated right handed hitters, yet is vulnerable against southpaws. However, the Cubs are more talented from the right side. Along with Soriano being out of the lineup, so is Barrett. Although it doesn’t seem like much, he was 6 for 11 against Looper and the only right handed hitter with past success against him. Lee and Ramirez are a combined 3 for 14 against him. The Cardinals did a better job resting their better bullpen pitchers yesterday, and got the night off yesterday, which it was quite evident it was needed, as they came into yesterday’s game flat. The Cubs had to fly late last night.

Lilly has been rock solid this year, and may continue this trend today. However, he has been one of the worst day game pitchers in baseball throughout his career, and he comes into today’s game with a career five plus day game ERA. The Cardinals finally get Rolen back in the lineup as well. Although the Cubs have a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen whose two best pitchers have been dominated by the Cardinals in the past.

Jibba · Apr 20, 2007

Finally against you on a play this week. I've been pretty happy all week seeing our plays line up for the most part, which tells me I must be doing something right. Just don't trust this Cards team and the Cubbies beat them pretty badly in Wrigley last year. Looper has looked good, but I still want to see him prove that he can make the transition from reliever to starter. Shouldn't have too much effect on him until midseason I'd imagine, but it's not an easy transition to make. Should be some decent emotion in this one for an early season game. BOL.

finman13 · Apr 20, 2007

does anyone know the weather for today in chicago?
i dont think i like the cards either jibba. ive only got the cards at +119 anyway

finman13 · Apr 20, 2007

looks like basically no wind today in chicago. im looking at a play on the under as the public has hit the over, which seems normal for cubs games in wrigley.

thanks for the congrats buffett. did you not derive a value on the phillies game because its liebers first start? those bats are due to come alive and when they do you wont see them at this nice price agains kyle lohse.

digging a little deeper in this cards game right before first pitch, the cards might be the play. no soriano and barrett. barrett has indeed spanked him and i think pujols might have a big day. gl

Jibba · Apr 20, 2007

No Barrett makes me not like my play as much. We'll see how it goes though.

finman13 · Apr 20, 2007

one total im looking at strong is over 9.5 -105 in the drays/indians game. edwin jackson is an out of control pitcher whose era is over 8 this year. i dont expect that to go down after tonight. on the other hand cc sabathia has absolutely owned the drays...at jacobs field. his era is 4.50 at tropicana. this devils rays lineup is better than any he faced in years past imo. its easier to see the ball in night games at the trop and i dont think its unreasonable to expect at least a 6-4 game in this one.

Jibba · Apr 20, 2007

I know there are a lot of kids on that lineup, but not a single current D-Ray has ever had success against CC. I love that matchup personally.

finman13 · Apr 20, 2007

well he has never faced delmon young and barely faced any of the othe guys. the guy with the most at bats is backup catcher josh paul who has slammed cc. we shall see. gl

finman13 · Apr 20, 2007

i take that back. 3rd most at bats i believe. baldelli and crawford have faced him more

AJPantano · Apr 20, 2007

To be honest.. this Cubs lineup doesn't worry me (from the viewpoint of placing a bet on the Cubs) The solid guys are still there. First 5 of the order are all hitters. 4 of them are battin over .300 and in the 5 spot is DeRosa w/ 11 RBIs tying himself for first on the team. The key to this game will be pitching. I personally do not believe Looper will keep up his stats. He has to come down from cloud 9 sometime, ya kno. Today could very well be that day. I still think he will have troubles converting himself from a reliever to a starter. It's going to be tough to match Lilly pitch for pitch in this game. BOL though on the play Buffet.