ATP Picks 4-20-07 (13-11-2) +$161

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1. Minnesota/KC OVER 10.5 (Even)

I want to jump on this over before the public realizes just how bad these pitchers are against the opposing team. Odalis has pitched in three games this year losing all three by scores of 6-4, 1-9, and 1-7 with over a 9 ERA. Ponson enters this game with an ERA over 8, the scores in his starts have been 12-5, and 2-8, and id like to point out the 2-8 game vs the yankees he gave up a bundle right away and the bullpen acutally held that score down. The total has gone over in 4 of Minnesotas last 5 games. Ponsons last two starts vs KC totaled 4 innings of work giving up 12 ER, and Perez has gone 11 innings giving up 7 runs. The current minnesota lineup has gone 24/65 vs ponson and batters have hit .360 off him this season. Minnesota has gone 31/75 off Odalis and the heart of the order, Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer absolutly salavate when they see him. The league is hitting .404 off him at this point. Ill jump on this at even money before the heavy money comes in on the over.


2. Chicago Cubs -131

The Cubs finally come out of a series with a little confidence beating atlanta 3-0 last night, with a tremendous start from Rich Hill, giving the bullpen a well needed rest. While the cubs come in feeling good, St Louis dropped two games to SF that they probably should have won and they appeared horrendously flat vs the Pirates. St Louis comes into Chicago having lost 9 of their last 11 at wrigley. Looper and Lilly have both been tremendous thus far, but in Lilly's last start vs Cincy he appeared absolutly unhittable losing 1-0 on a bleeder. The league is only hitting .164 vs him and with the holes that St louis is displaying it seems he could work around the tough guys. The St Louis bullpen has been used up of late, if they can get Looper out of there the cubs may finally break through with some real runs.


YTD: (13-11-2) +$161:103631605

150/150 OVER MINN
131/100 Cubs
 

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3. Florida -1.5 +130
Olsen's numbers dont look all that good due in part to his last outing vs atlanta where he lost his control and poise in the 5th inning while rolling. He has already handled this lineup in his opening start. While Florida got plastered by the Mets they extended their streak of being winless as a dog, they go back to the favorite status today where they are 6-3, including 2 of 3 vs these Nats and should have been all three where it not for that jorge julio collapse in the 9th inning. Florida had won the first two games of the series by 9-2 and 9-3 and took a 2 run lead to the 9th in the finally. Hill looked impressive vs the Mets in his last start but could only go 5 in his start vs florida giving up 4 ER. This is what Florida needs to get back to their winning ways. 6 of the last 7 games between these two teams has been won by the fish and been decided by at least two runs. Washingtons bullpen has been used a lot thanks to that long game with the philies and their bats have not been doing anything that would make me believe this will be close.

100/130 FL -1.5:suomi:
 

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4. Mets +1.5 -160

Love the pitching matchup of Hudson and Pelfrey. It just seems to me that the Mets are coming into this game playing on a much better note than atlanta. Hudson has been unhittable this season, missing the Mets in the first season series, playing Florida, Wash, and philly. I would think that Hudson's .86 ERA would rise after tonight with the way the Mets offense is swinging the bat, did anyone see the bloodbath put on Florida in that series, 11-3, and 9-2 along with a 8-1 win over philly. Mets as a dog at home will be a rarity this season and the mets will score runs tonight. Pelfrey is no slouch and will keep the Braves offense in check after being baffled by Rich Hill last night. Just as a backup the run and a half is the safest bet here.


160/100 METS +1.5:103631605
 

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5. SF/Arz OVER 9 -120

Generally in a game like this i wouldnt put too much stock in SF scoring enough runs but this matchup is just right for the runs to come in. Russ Ortiz is by far one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball today that still has his job and SF seems to explode everytime they see a lefty on the mound, in this case Doug Davis. Ortiz hasnt been bad yet this year but its only a matter of time before we see his true colors once again and this arizona lineup has run power winning 5 of their last 6 on the road, losing yesterday in a slugfest with Peavy on the mound. The giants are 3-1 this season vs lefties compared to their 3-7 mark against righties where they struggle to score. Correct me if im wrong but i believe Francis from Col is a lefty and they absolutly pounced on him last time out as well as Duke of Pittsburgh who allowed 5 first inning runs to this squad. Ortiz hasnt faced Arizona since back in the day with atlanta when he was still halfway decent, the last two starts for Davis vs SF were 5 and 6 inning outings allowing 6 and 4 runs respectively.


240/200 OVER 9 SF:103631605
 

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6. NYY/BOS OVER 9 -120

Have to have some action on this game. It seems really hard to be swayed in either direction, with the Yanks being so red hot with AROD and the minds of Boston with what happened to them here last year. Though Pettitte and Schilling are the teams respective aces I dont see it mattering with these teams. Both teams come off great come from behind wins with AROD going nuts and Manny finnally being Manny. Pettitte has been involved in three straight overs. Looking back to the scores in games played here last yr: 2-1, 8-5, 13-5, 14-11, 12-4 in that 5 game yankee sweep of boston, they obviously love Fenway. Its been a while since Pettitte has faced boston but his three prior efforts while a yankee he went 13 innings over three games but got drilled for 14 earned runs. A red hot yankee offense combined with a team that hits Pettitte = runs runs runs.

120/100:suomi:
 

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Going to increase my play on the MINN/KC OVer 10.5 its at the same line of even from 150/150 to a total of 250/250 GL all
 

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7. Cleveland/TB OVER 9.5 EVEN

Cleveland comes into this match extremely pissed off and ready to swing the sticks against Edwin Jackson who has been getting rocked with an ERA aprroaching 9, only going 3 innings and 5 innings in his first two starts, and we all know how horrid the TB bullpen is. While this looks like lock city for Cleveland to win I will warn you that TB has been playing much better offensively this season especially against lefties at 3-2 they have been able to hit Santana, Bedard, and Lowen this year. 4 of the last 5 games in TB between these two teams has gone over the total while 11 of TB's last 15 games have gone over and Cleveland has gone over 4 of its last 6 tries. Were TB able to get sabathia out early the indians bullpen was used extensively vs NYY and it could mean big numbers, it all adds up to how well Sabathia is in this matchup, ill take a shot on him not being perfect and the Indians scoring in bunches.

60/60:bigfinger
 

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