MLB FRIDAY PICK (7-4-0 YTD +3.15 UNITS) With Writeup

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2007 RECORD: 7-4-0 +3.15 Units

Judging from last nights results, the day off was certainly the right move. Today there were a lot of options, but only one purebred play.

FRIDAY 4/20/2007: San Diego Padres (Chris Young) @ Colorado Rockies (Josh Fogg)

PLAY ON: COLORADO ROCKIES (MoneyLine, +100) To Win 1 Unit

Ahh, Coors Field, a pitchers hellhole. Tonight Chris Young takes on the role of victim as he faces a powerful Rockies lineup in the thin air of Colorado. Young had a phenomenal season in 2006, posting a 3.46 ERA with an 11-5 record. At 6'10 he is quite an imposing figure on the mound, and definitely has some solid pitches. That said, Young has started off the season in a rather lackluster fashion. While he did pitch a shutout to San Francisco in his second outing against the Giants, Young has had some major control issues. What made him so dangerous last year was his ability to get hitters to an 0-2 count over 20% of the time. With ten walks in fourteen innings, this has hardly been the case for Young this season. With a rather flat fastball that runs high in the zone, Young is vulnerable without enough movement on his pitches. After getting annihilated in LA, Young now has to travel to the unfriendly confines of Colorado, where good command is even more difficult to come by. As someone who has also been prone to the homerun ball, I expect Colorado to put Young through world of hurt before he exits the ballgame tonight.<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\n\u003c/p\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Offensively, the Rockies have been on their usual tear at home. They have a lofty on-base percentage of .368, and what's even more impressive*is the fact that \nColorado has walked 30 times in 63 innings at home. That's about 4.5 walks per game against pitchers by the names of Zito, Cain, Lowe, Webb, Livan Hernandez, Mark Hendrickson and Doug Davis; Quite a stat considering the opposition. \n\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>*\u003c/div\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Pitching for the Rockies tonight is the young underachiever, Josh Fogg. Fogg is probably one of the most interesting pitchers in all of baseball. His fastball tops out around 88 MPH, and he only throws it about 57% of the time. Compared to most pitchers in the league, that is a significantly low percentage. He relies on changeups, dirtballs and curveballs, a strategy very similar to that of Jason Jennings in Coors Field. By about this time in his career, Jason Jennings finally figured out how to pitch in \nColorado. With a full season of experience, Fogg's Coors Field strategy has been refined and should be well-executed tonight. Earlier this season, Fogg shut down the Padres at San Diego in a 3-2 loss. He has the ability to pound the strike-zone with offspeed stuff, and has had his fair share of lights-out ballgames. Fogg's season thus far has been superb. He sports a \n3.97 ERA based on two road starts, and has logged in two shutout innings @ Coors in relief. Having walked only 3 batters in nineteen innings, Fogg will force the weak Padres lineup to hit their way to victory. With one of the worst offenses in the league, we can count on \nSan Diego to squander a lot of opportunities tonight. ",1]);//--></SCRIPT>

Offensively, the Rockies have been on their usual tear at home. They have a lofty on-base percentage of .368, and what's even more impressive is the fact that Colorado has walked 30 times in 63 innings at home. That's about 4.5 walks per game against pitchers by the names of Zito, Cain, Lowe, Webb, Livan Hernandez, Mark Hendrickson and Doug Davis; Quite a stat considering the opposition.


Pitching for the Rockies tonight is the young underachiever, Josh Fogg. Fogg is probably one of the most interesting pitchers in all of baseball. His fastball tops out around 88 MPH, and he only throws it about 57% of the time. Compared to most pitchers in the league, that is a significantly low percentage. He relies on changeups, dirtballs and curveballs, a strategy very similar to that of Jason Jennings in Coors Field. By about this time in his career, Jason Jennings finally figured out how to pitch in Colorado. With a full season of experience, Fogg's Coors Field strategy has been refined and should be well-executed tonight. Earlier this season, Fogg shut down the Padres at San Diego in a 3-2 loss. He has the ability to pound the strike-zone with offspeed stuff, and has had his fair share of lights-out ballgames. Fogg's season thus far has been superb. He sports a 3.97 ERA based on two road starts, and has logged in two shutout innings @ Coors in relief. Having walked only 3 batters in nineteen innings, Fogg will force the weak Padres lineup to hit their way to victory. With one of the worst offenses in the league, we can count on San Diego to squander a lot of opportunities tonight.<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>San Diego\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> also suffered an injury to their starting catcher and major offensive contributor, none other than Josh Bard. While this may sound rather insignificant, it forces Young to work with a new catcher and the rather depleted Padres offense loses a long-term*proven bat.\n\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>My only initial concern about this play was the Rockies bullpen. They do have some weak arms in the pen, but luckily the strong arms got to rest yesterday, and should be ready to go tonight. Brian Fuentes has been a fantastic underrated closer for the \nRockies. Manny Corpas and Ramon Ramirez have pitched lights-out baseball in the pen for the Colorado, so they should hold down the late innings if necessary. I am confident that the only circumstance we'd see Latroy Hawkins or Matt Herges tonight would be in an early \nRockies blowout. I also have faith that Fogg can go seven innings tonight against this offense. \u003cspan\>*\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>A nice home-dog line on this game gives us great value tonight at Coors field. \u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Good Luck\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>",1]);//--></SCRIPT> San Diego also suffered an injury to their starting catcher and major offensive contributor, none other than Josh Bard. While this may sound rather insignificant, it forces Young to work with a new catcher and the rather depleted Padres offense loses a long-term proven bat.

My only initial concern about this play was the Rockies bullpen. They do have some weak arms in the pen, but luckily the strong arms got to rest yesterday, and should be ready to go tonight. Brian Fuentes has been a fantastic underrated closer for the Rockies. Manny Corpas and Ramon Ramirez have pitched lights-out baseball in the pen for the Colorado, so they should hold down the late innings if necessary. I am confident that the only circumstance we'd see Latroy Hawkins or Matt Herges tonight would be in an early Rockies blowout. I also have faith that Fogg can go seven innings tonight against this offense.

A nice home-dog line on this game gives us great value tonight at Coors field.

Good Luck
<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003cspan class\u003dsg\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan\>*\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan\>Chase\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003c/span\>",0]);D(["ce"]);//--></SCRIPT>


Chase
 

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Always love the writeups, but never seem to be on the same side. BOL anyways.
 

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