MLB: Saturday April 21st Plays

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White Sox @ Tigers
Play: White Sox +138
Intrinsic Value: +110
Consider Betting Price: +130
Comment:

It seems like the more the White Sox win, the more undervalued they become, as this will be the fourth time in five games that I will be taking a position on them. Although, much like Buerhle, I have been calling for Contreras’s regression for over a year now. However, this may be a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing. Contreras pitched the Tigers well in his five starts against them last year. He had success against almost every right handed hitter in the lineup, and has given a few key hitters on the team problems throughout his career. Although he has never pitched as well on the road, there might not be another road park in baseball where he has put forth more solid starts in. He has also significantly been more successful during day games, which could be a product of being harder to pick up. He has responded well from his opening day blowout, as he has allowed just one run in his last two starts. The White Sox bullpen has been pitching better of late, while the Tigers hitters have not played to form yet this season. They are also a less potent lineup at home.

As much as Robertson has improved the last couple of years, he has still not proven to be an effective pitcher during day games. Even last year he put forth an ERA more than one run higher during day games. He comes into today’s game with a career 5.59 day game ERA, as opposed to his sub four night day ERA. Robertson also struggled against the White Sox as well last year, finishing with a near seven ERA in four starts against them. Last year was more than anomaly, as his career ERA against them hovers over five. There are a few players spread out in today’s lineup with past success against him, while Podsednik’s absence will not be missed in today’s game, as he is only 2 for 20 lifetime against him. Thome seems locked in at the plate, while there seems to be a new role player stepping up each day. Jones has not had success against the White Sox either.
 

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Braves @ Mets
Play: Braves +127
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
As much as I hate betting against this Mets team, I feel that they make for a much more compelling fade at home, where home field advantage is minimized by the parks clashing with their fundamental style of hitting, an embedded variable consistently not reflected in the 20 basis point home field add on. The Mets are also a much less potent lineup against southpaws, as most of their talent is either left handed hitters or switch hitters that are more dangerous from the left side. James is off to an impressive start, and it is more than a fluke. His delivery and deception makes him really hard to pick up, and although the Mets have solid career totals against him, this trend appears to lack sustainability, as last time out, he managed to go 8 innings against them, allowing just one hit and no runs. He is a young pitcher that has not shown a preference of pitching at home, and is finally backed by a strong bullpen. The Braves fast start is no fluke, as they are one of the more well rounded teams in baseball, and the Mets will have trouble pushing them around as they did in recent years.

Unlike James, Perez is a southpaw whose fast start may lack sustainability. He has lacked consistency throughout his career, and his propensity to allow a lot of baserunners via the walk can prove costly against a lineup with depth and power throughout. More regression variables is the notion that he has been known to struggle most early in the season. The Mets bullpen is not as talented as last years, and lacks much of a disparity over the Braves. Their front end is not terribly talented, and Perez’s lack of consistency can lead to an early exit.
 

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Diamondbacks @ Giants
Play: Giants -142
Intrinsic Value: -169
Consider Betting Price: -153
Comment:
Last week Zito was able to rebound from his first two poor outings against veteran lineups by facing a young and inexperienced Rockies lineup. Today he gets to face yet another young lineup that could have problems with Zito’s style. Zito is at his best when facing lineups with not much history against him, as his style of pitching takes at least two go-arounds to adjust too. This does not bode well for a Diamondbacks lineup that has just one player with more than ten at bats against him. The two hottest hitters on the team come into today’s game with a combined 3 for 19 against him. His flyball style of pitching should be helped out by the spacious outfield this park provides. Also helping Zito’s chances this game is the home plate umpire, who has a propensity to call the high strike, making his curveball that much more effective. The Giants bullpen has been pitching better the last few games, and are well rested after two solid starts in a row by their starters. The Diamondbacks lineup is not as potent on the road. More importantly, there is not another team in baseball that has been struggling more with southpaws, as they come into today’s game with just a .172 average against them, and have yet to hit a home run against them.

Gonzalez might have a solid future ahead of him, but he certainly isn’t pitching that way at this point and time. He continues to be way too hittable, and is being smacked around by both right and left handed hitters. He comes into today’s game with a career OBA of .327. Left handers have absolutely crushed him throughout his career, as they have managed to hit nearly .350 against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as he is more than likely gong to have to face six left handed hitters in today’s game. He has also not had past success against the Giants, allowing eleven runs in just nine career innings against them. His finesse style of pitching also does not match up well against a patient veteran lineup that is more vulnerable to being overpowered. Being backed by a sub par bullpen gives the Giants hitters a good chance to continue their mini hot streak.
 

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Blue Jays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -110
Intrinsic Value: -169
Consider Betting Price: -152
Comment:
Once again, the Orioles are trading well below their intrinsic value in this game. Although Towers is off to a solid start this season, sooner or later he will come back to earth, as he just isn’t a very solid pitcher. Both his first two starts were home starts, where he has always had more success pitching. His career road ERA is plus five, and has been hittable for both right and left handed hitters throughout his career, as both are hitting .300 against him. Although he has been able to put forth solid career totals against the Orioles, they are misleading on two accounts. One, is the notion that he isn’t as an effective pitcher compared to the time when he accumulated most of the numbers. Secondly, he has struggled against a few of the hitters in today’s lineup, while only having success against one. He has also been dominated by Huff when playing for another team. As mentioned last night, the Blue Jays bullpen is a mess without Ryan. They have no ideal backend pitcher, making any potential lead vulnerable. The Orioles are a more dangerous lineup at home and against right handed pitching.

Although the Blue Jays lineup is built to hit left handed pitching, they are not nearly as much of a threat against southpaws now that Glauss and Johnson are out of the lineup. It is also a lineup that has struggled of late, and have one of the higher disparities of productivity at home compared to the road over the last three years. Loewen also appears to be a more effective pitcher compared to the one that got roughed up by this Blue Jays team last year. He has been far more effective at home in his short career, and has been relatively effective against right handed hitters in his career. Right now more than ever, the Blue Jays need a lift from Thomas, who looks lost at the plate. The departure of Molina also makes this lineup less potent against southpaws. The Orioles bullpen is no longer a liability, and actually possesses one of the deeper and better bullpens in baseball.
 

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Astros @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -138
Intrinsic Value: -165
Consider Betting Price: -150
Comment:

This is not an ideal match up for the Astros to continue their hot streak on the road. Capuano remains one of the most undervalued home pitchers in baseball, especially early in the season when he is much more effective. He is once again off to a dominating start this year, and has a good spot for him to continue this trend against a team that he has had past success against. He has always been more effective at home, during night games and early in the season, three key variables that will be working in his favor today. Having past success against a few key hitters in the lineup gives him a good chance to curtail the hot streak the Astros have been displaying at the plate.

Don’t put too much stock into Rodriguez’s solid start to the season. He has been known to do such in the past as well, but regression never fails. This might be a spot for him to come back to earth, as the Brewers got a lot of looks at him last year, and roughed him up. He has performed poorly on the road in the past, and will have to face a few hitters spread around the lineup with solid success in limited at bats against him. The Brewers have always hit the ball better at home, and this year is no exception. The Astros bullpen is far from being settled out, which does not bode well for them, as they are expected to use a lot of it in today’s game.
 

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Phillies @ Reds
Play: Phillies -126
Intrinsic Value: -152
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
I believe this is the first time I have bet on the Phillies all year, as I felt that they have consistently been slightly overpriced, as public bettors were in love with their offense. Now that it appears the public is jumping ship, they are finally coming with enough value to warrant a play. Even without Howard in today’s lineup, this is a good spot for their lineup to do damage. Milton is simply pitching on the wrong team, as being a flyball pitcher for the Reds don’t mix, as their home park is really unforgiving for this style of pitching. He is really vulnerable in this particular match up, as he faces a lineup that has power spread throughout, which should take advantage of the fundamental deficiencies that he provides. It is no surprise that he has struggled against this team in the past, including and unimpressive outing against them last year. He is backed by an untalented bullpen that has been overachieving all year, but has been showing signs of regression of late. This should provide a slumping, yet dangerous Phillies lineup with scoring opportunites throughout this game.

If it weren’t for the Reds starting pitching overachieving all year, they would have a very similar record as the Phillies, as their lineup has been far from impressive. This holds especially true against southpaws, as their four most dangerous hitters come from the left side. They have a really tough match up with Hammels, who is extremely hard to pick up for left handed bats. With Griffey’s illness and the mismatch he provides for Hamilton, don’t be surprised if neither one crack the starting lineup in this game. Hammels disparity of velocity and being hard to pick up allows him to dominate any lineup in the league. In his only start against the Reds last year, he went five innings and allowed just one hit. He has had a lot more success during night games as well. He is progressively getting his pitch count up with each start, which should allow him to eat up ideal innings. Myers in the bullpen makes the team much better four out of every five games.
 

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Mariners @ Angels
Play: Mariners +145
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
I am baffled to see this line priced wear it is. It seems like the public is valuing Colon as the pitcher that one the CY Young award a couple of years back, which is far from the case coming off of major shoulder surgery. Putting forth solid rehab assignments is one of the more overvalued variables in setting the line, which appears to be the case once again. 2 of the last three years, he put forth plus 5 ERA’s, and has been known to struggle against the Mariners in the past, which is a sustainable trend, as they are one of the better fastball hitting teams in the league. Even if Colon doesn’t come out rusty, he will still have to overcome pitching to a lineup that has several hitters with past success against him. Being backed by an elite bullpen doesn’t seem to bother the Mariners of late, as they have consistently done damage against some of the best bullpen pitchers in the league in recent games.

The Angels lineup is a mess right now. Even though they get Guerrero back, it is quite evident they miss the bats of Figgins, Rivera and now Kendrick. Ramirez looked solid in this last outing, and now gets to face a lineup that he fundamentally matches up well against. He is most prone to the long ball, a deficiency that should be helped out by the lack of power the Angels bring to the plate. It is also a lineup that doesn’t perform better at home.
 

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Braves @ Mets
Play: Braves +127
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
As much as I hate betting against this Mets team, I feel that they make for a much more compelling fade at home, where home field advantage is minimized by the parks clashing with their fundamental style of hitting, an embedded variable consistently not reflected in the 20 basis point home field add on. The Mets are also a much less potent lineup against southpaws, as most of their talent is either left handed hitters or switch hitters that are more dangerous from the left side. James is off to an impressive start, and it is more than a fluke. His delivery and deception makes him really hard to pick up, and although the Mets have solid career totals against him, this trend appears to lack sustainability, as last time out, he managed to go 8 innings against them, allowing just one hit and no runs. He is a young pitcher that has not shown a preference of pitching at home, and is finally backed by a strong bullpen. The Braves fast start is no fluke, as they are one of the more well rounded teams in baseball, and the Mets will have trouble pushing them around as they did in recent years.

Unlike James, Perez is a southpaw whose fast start may lack sustainability. He has lacked consistency throughout his career, and his propensity to allow a lot of baserunners via the walk can prove costly against a lineup with depth and power throughout. More regression variables is the notion that he has been known to struggle most early in the season. The Mets bullpen is not as talented as last years, and lacks much of a disparity over the Braves. Their front end is not terribly talented, and Perez’s lack of consistency can lead to an early exit.

Good luck today buffett. Always enjoy your writeups.

I see a few people on the Braves today, and I have a hard time betting against the #1 team in baseball vs. left-handed pitching right now. Mets are batting .352, which by far leads baseball vs. lefties. (although just 1 HR vs. lefties)....Although James has value at +123, I still have a hard time pulling the trigger with the Braves considering the Mets success against lefties, off a loss, playing at home, and James not having overpowering stuff.

Perez is definitely inconsistent, but if he can keep it in the yard today - I can see the Mets getting to James. What to do, what to do.

Looks like a pass for me, but I'll be rooting for you. :pope:
 

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agree with all the plays, but angles game might be a stay away..but after yesterday ill probably go on them since angels offense horrible. colon might need a shutout to win
 

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Great run you've been on this week, BG. I've been on a great run on the virtual green felt myself -- so all in all a very profitable week! Thanks and good luck.
 

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+4.32 Yesterday

+24.18 YTD


These results are just 19 days into the season.

Amazing run. Simply amazing.
 

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Love the plays today. On many of them myself. May end up against you on one, maybe two, but BOL and thanks as always.
 

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Buffett been reading and enjoying the writeups and intrinsic values on your plays. I find this immensely more valuable than just giving out a play. Keep up the good work!
 

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Whenever I read this guy's writeupes, the plays appear to be no brainers.

Continued success.

IS
 

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