Jibba's Sat MLB

Favorites: 39-15 for +18.96 units
Underdogs: 13-8 +6.92 units
Total: 47-20 for +25.88 units

5-3 on the day for official plays yesterday. Also put in a late play on the Angels and had a small action play on my Sox so the day was pretty good. Going to make a some quick picks but will need to come back later for full writeups if possible. Like a lot today

LA Dodgers -144: Love the way Penny is pitching and think he will be too much for the Pirates. And the Dodgers are just playing too well to lose this game at home. 1.44 units to win 1.

Philadelphia -129: I think this is very solid value on Hamels. The public wants no part of Philly these days but I think Hamels can shut down this weak Reds offense and that Philly, potentially with Howard back, can take advantage of Milton. 1.29 units to win 1.

Milwaukee -139: Basically I'm going to continue to ride what I see as an undervaluing of Capuano. I'm also going to continue riding a fade of Wandy Rodriguez. Houston has been burning my lately but eventually their poor play early in games is going to catch up to them. 1.39 units to win 1.

San Francisco -148: I think this is a great spot for Zito to continue to get comfortable in the NL. I like the way the Giants have been playing lately and think they will not have problems with Edgar Gonzalez. Arizona has not had much luck against lefties thus far, and they get a very tough one today 1.48 units to win 1.

Chicago (NL) -123: Marquis taking on his old team. Big rivalry game. Cubs dominated the Cards in Wrigley last year, and they do not want to drop the first 2 in this big series. I've faded Reyes every start so far and had luck. I just don't think he's ready for a game like this. If we see another game like we did last season by Reyes in Wrigley, where he lacked control, I think the Cubs will take advantage. 1.23 units to win 1.

Baltimore -110: I really like the way the O's have been playing and think the Jays are headed in the opposite direction, thanks in part to some key injuries. Towers was 2-6 on the road last year, with an 8.32 ERA and a .333 BAA. I want to see that the solid start against Detroit wasn't just a fluke, in part due to the Tigers not swinging the bat well. I think he'll have a far tougher time with this O's offense. 1.10 units to win 1.

Chicago (AL) +132: Contreras has pitched Detroit well historically. Robertson hasn't had much success against the Chi Sox. Think this one should be closer to even money the way these teams have been playing. 1 unit to win 1.32.

May have 1 or 2 more. Like I said, I like a lot on today's card. BOL to all.

Big day for the favorites here.

LA Angels -142: Public play here but I think the Angels win easy here. Colon and Vlad back really gives this team a much needed boost and I think Angel Stadium is going to be rocking and full of emotion today. 1.42 units to win 1.

Cleveland -137: Seo hasn't been able to shut any offense down this year. Opponents are batting an unbelieveable .384 thus far. He's not going to start shutting people down against the Tribe. Byrd is solid enough that I think he can get it done here. 2.06 units to win 1.5.

Boston -149: I don't think you'll get a good price on the Sox too often at home. Against the Yankees is about as close as you'll get. I'll take the Sox, who are pumped and have momentum coming into today, over a rookie pitcher coming off the DL. I've been riding Beckett and his new stuff all year, and I'll continue to do so here. 0.75 units to win 0.5.

I'm also going to add a couple half units. Cleveland is a 1.5 unit play, and I'll also play the Giants, Orioles, Phillies and Brewers for 1.5 units. This is the first time this year I've played more than 1 or 2 1.5 unit plays in a day, but I feel good about it and know it's not about chasing. It's purely value, and hopefully I can stay hot a bit longer.

BOL to all on their plays.

picks look good today jibba, havent seen anything to go against you yet

ATP said:

picks look good today jibba, havent seen anything to go against you yet

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Thanks man. Very big card today, even for me. I think I have close to as many 1.5 unit plays (so far this season my largest plays) today as I've had all season combined. But so far so good. 4-0 in finished games, 1 of which was a 1.5 unit play. Looking good in the others that have started (although I notice Cleveland is starting to choke), but it's still early and they're mostly 1 run games at the moment.

Oh, and although I kept it small since it was a home team play, my Sox beat the Yanks again. :thumbsup:

very nice card today jibba. i am also on most of these plays and also need the indians to cash.

types4u2nv said:

very nice card today jibba. i am also on most of these plays and also need the indians to cash.

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Yeah, that's not looking so good right now, but between Seo and the TB bullpen, I like our chances.

On a side note, I also currently have a parlay going strong. I've played maybe 5 parlays in my life, but for some strange reason two of them have been over yesterday and today. Only did it for fun because I had won a half unit each day on BJ while bored, and figured I'd let it ride. Lost yesterday's 20-1 shot just on the Mets. Today I have my 23-1 shot still alive. At the last minute I decided to take the Indians out and put in Florida (a game I didn't even play SU). I almost switched the Mets and O's yesterday, but decided not to at the last minute and it screwed me. Anyways, today's has the Red Sox (win), Giants (win), Orioles (3-1 in the 5th), Marlins (4-2 in the 4th), Brewers (3-1 in the 5th), and Phillies (2-1 in the 6th). So today's got the potential for a very nice score. Can't imagine they'll all hold on, but like I said, that play was just for fun.

BOL to everyone on their evening plays.

Currently 7-1 on the day so far (4-1 on the 1.5 unit plays) with both LAs pending. Angels up 3-0 in the 5th and Dodgers are down 1-0 coming to bat in the first last I checked. I also hit for about 11.5 units on the spur of the moment half unit parlay so it's a very good Saturday. Like I said above it was probably only the 5th one I've ever bet in my life because I know they're pretty bad value.

Not positive if I can get my plays in tomorrow but will try. I don't know if I can get online in the morning and most games are early tomorrow. If not, BOL to everyone on their plays.

Awesome day Jibba

Thanks man.

Just going to add a play or two here for tomorrow and start a new thread with writeups if I can.

Houston -135: Oswalt hasn't been great in Miller Park, but he looked great there last year and he pitched well overall against the Brewers last year as well, going 2-0 with a 0.92 WHIP and a .224 BAA. I think Bush is a very solid starter but he hasn't put it together yet this year. I also have to say I'm impressed with the way Houston stays in games day after day. 1.35 units to win 1.

hope you had real cash on those picks. Nice job today.

k:

Minnesota -145: Love the pitching matchup. Kansas City isn't going to be the team to slow Ramon Ortiz down and De La Rosa, while impressive at times, has been killed in 5 appearances (3 starts) against Minnesota (0-3, 16.2 IPs, 7.02 ERA, 2.28 WHIP, and a .308 BAA).

Currently have a lean on the White Sox. Line seems high considering how Verlander has pitched against Chicago in the past (1-4, 7.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, .358 BAA). In his first two starts he didn't have the control he did last year. Also have a lean on Atlanta.

joshgirls said:

hope you had real cash on those picks. Nice job today.

k:

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Thanks JG. BOL.

Jibba said:

Minnesota -145: Love the pitching matchup. Kansas City isn't going to be the team to slow Ramon Ortiz down and De La Rosa, while impressive at times, has been killed in 5 appearances (3 starts) against Minnesota (0-3, 16.2 IPs, 7.02 ERA, 2.28 WHIP, and a .308 BAA).

Currently have a lean on the White Sox. Line seems high considering how Verlander has pitched against Chicago in the past (1-4, 7.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, .358 BAA). In his first two starts he didn't have the control he did last year. Also have a lean on Atlanta.

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The over for Minnesota may look better.

Next up for Ortiz will be a start against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, where he is 1-4 with an 8.10 ERA in six career appearances.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers.jsp?c_id=mlb&ymd=20070422

Chicago +150: Cintron is 6 for 11 against Verlander, Crede is 5 for 13, Dye is 7 for 12 with 3 HRs, Pierzynski is 3 for 13 with 2 HRs, and Thome is 6-12 with 4 HRs. I could be on the wrong end of line movement if the public hits Verlander hard, but I'm not positive I'll be around tomorrow so I'll it now. 1 unit to win 1.50.

I Am A Legend,

Thanks for the heads up. Honestly, the way I look at it is that I don't think Ramon Ortiz was ever a great pitcher. He's playing way above his skill right now and I just don't think this Royals team has the firepower to set him back. My play is already in, but otherwise I'd definitely look a little closer at the total (although I've never been good at playing totals).

This man is posting some of the best baseball stuff on the internet right now. I see it over and over again how people like this fly under the radar, yet those "flashy titled threads" and "thread bumpers" get the attention.
Great work.

buffettgambler said:

This man is posting some of the best baseball stuff on the internet right now. I see it over and over again how people like this fly under the radar, yet those "flashy titled threads" and "thread bumpers" get the attention.
Great work.

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Right..and there are some other great cappers in the Tracker forum.

Hell Of A Day Dude Please Post Tomorrow Cause Sunday Is A Day In Need For Most. Thanks In Advance.