ensign_lee MLB picks 04/21/07-04/28/07

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Hey everyone:

Took a few days off to try to clear my head, sine I was sucking so incredibly madly (seems like I was the only one. goodness gracious y'all are doing well!)

I'm going to try to start again with a clean slate, with my record at 0-0. There's still plenty of baseball left and I'm willing to give this another shot. Let's hope everything turns out ok! :)

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YTD: 0-0
Units Won: 0.00

You can take a more detailed look at my record (once it gets going) at My SageStats Page. I know that it's set to look at my NBA bets right now, but if you use the dropdown menu, you can isolate my bets for MLB.

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So, here we go:

Baltimore (-113)
2 units at BetJamaica

Pinnacle and theGreek are holding the worst possible prices on Baltimore, and I consider these two the sharpest baseball books around. If they don't want me on a side and I can get it for a decent price from another book, I'll take it.

LA Dodgers -1.5 (+154.84)
2 units at Matchbook

This bet comes courtesy of two handicappers that I respect a lot: Jaldy and Bucsfan67. I'll trust their judgment on it.

Allright. I'll update this thread if I add any more selections. If y'all have any questions, feel free to ask! :)
 

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YTD: 2-0
Units Won: 5.1

Check me out!

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Allright, for today:

Houston Astros (-123.47)
1 unit at Matchbook.

Following a handicapper here, as well as making a homer bet. GO ASTROS GOOOO!
 

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Also,

Colorado Rockies (-102)
2 units at BetJamaica

Neither Pinnacle nor 5Dimes seem to be wanting action on Colorado, both holding the worst prices out there (save the -110 by theGreek) while simultaneously holding the best prices on San Diego. I'll take the best line I can get on Colorado, please.
 

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And,

St. Louis (-124)
1 unit at BetJamaica

I only did this because the line was scalpable at Pinnacle. -124 at BetJam and +125 at Pinnacle, for that half a second.

This means that Pinnacle was willing to take the side of St. Louis if it only had to lay -125. I'll take any bet that Pinnacle was willing to take.
 

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YTD: 4-1
Units Won: 6.86

For a more in-depth analysis of my record, http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978 . You'll have more info as to whether you want to follow or fade me. :)

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Allright, let's see what's on deck for today:

Toronto BlueJays (+178.36)
1 unit at Matchbook

Something's fishy. Sportsinsights shows 60% of the bets on Toronto, whereas Wagerline shows 60% of the bets on Boston. I'm inclined to believe Wagerline over Sportsinsights.

Plus, the line moved to encourage more money on Boston. What's up with that?

I think that Boston is still hunogver happy from sweeping the yankees and will fall to Toronto tonight. Well, at least often enough to make +178.36 odds +EV.

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I will also be making a bet on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at the best possible price I can get before the game starts. Here's my reasoning:

Pinnacle and 5Dimes, the two sharpest MLB books in my mind, are both offering the current worst prices on Tampa Bay, while simultaneously offering VERY attractive prices on New York. That alone is enough to make me want to bet on Tampa, but wait...there's more! :D

Around 70-80% of the public (depending on where you get your info) is on New York, and yet the price has changed by 10 cents to make it more appealing still to bet on the Yankees.

This will either be a 2 unit or a 3 unit bet. We'll see. I'll post the odds I get as soon as I make the bet.
 

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The bet on Tampa ended up at +186 at BetJamaica. Could have sworn I posted, but obviously not. Whoops. :D
 

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YTD: 6-1
Units Won: 13.32

For a more detailed record, go to my sagestats page: http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

You'll be able to glean more info about my record and make the decision as to whether to follow or fade.

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For today:

Oakland (+116)
2 units at BetJamaica

Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on Oakland, and so if they don't want bets on Oakland, I want to have a bet on Oakland.

Plus, the whole wagerline/sportsinsights dissonance is happening again. Wagerline shows 60% of the bets on Baltimore. Sportsinsights shows 60% of the bets on Oakland. I'm inclined to believe wagerline.

So therefore, two units.
 

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With all due respect, you cannot start your record over unless you can get the sportsbook to refund your money.

That would be like the TEXANS losing 35-0 at half-time and comming out of the tunnel and saying, ok lets start over 0-0.

Thats not the real world.
 

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For the later games:

Chicago Cubs (-158.16)
2 units at Matchbook

Once again, Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on the Cubs. Only thing that worries me is that around 60-70% of the public (depending on your site) is on the same side with me.

Let's hope the cubs can take care of business.
 

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Brandonroy22: Thanks!

Choptalk: I understand where you're coming from. That's why you can still see clearly that I am down betting baseball from my sagestats page.

But psychologically it helps. To build on your example, wouldn't the coach say something like "Play like it's 0-0. Anything that can happen in the first half can happen in the second half."? It helps me resist the urge to chase that one big loss I had and what not.

But to everyone: make no mistake. I am DOWN betting baseball.
 

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Well, good luck on your fresh start.

Long season buddy.

What do you think of Shabb?

And how do you think Carr will do in Caralina?

Personally dont think he will beat out JAKE.
 

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Ha01l: I never said I wasn't down. If you look at my record for all of baseball via my sagestats page, you can see I am clearly down. Was that your point? Because I just helped you make it. Feel better now? :)
 

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Well, good luck on your fresh start.

Long season buddy.

What do you think of Shabb?

And how do you think Carr will do in Caralina?

Personally dont think he will beat out JAKE.

As far as Shaub goes, let's hope he's the real deal. Well, anything will probably be better than Carr was. Goodness...

No; he shouldn't beat out Jake Delhomme. If he does, um...something's wrong in Carolina.
 

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YTD: 7-2
Units Won: 12.48

You can verify this stuff yourself at http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978 as well as have more information on whether to follow or fade.

At this point, I would like to make it known that I am DOWN betting baseball since the year started. Like I said in the first post, I took a break and then tried to change my wagering strategy, so I wanted to create a seperate record to reflect that. I also wanted to do this to prevent the urge to chase.

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For today:

Colorado (+178)
3 units at BetJamaica

I'm just posting this now so people don't yell at me later saying I posted an unavailable line. I bet this right now since it's scalpable at Pinnacle at the moment and because this line seems so far off of some of the other ones available at other books. I will probably buy this back later to reduce my unit exposure.
 

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Ended up scalping out my position when I saw the lines this morning with the following bets:

New York Mets (-171)
2 units at BetJamaica

and

New York Mets (-178)
1 units at BetJamaica

leaving me with essentially the following bet:

Colorado (+infinity)
0 units to win .14 units at BetJamaica

So, now I win .14 units if Colorado wins, otherwise I win nothing. Since this bet is now effectively cancelled, I won't include its result in my record, but if the scalp comes in, yay for me. :D
 

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I am waiting to get the best price on:

Baltimore Orioles
2 units

Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on Baltimore, at +118 and +117 respectively. The only price who they beat is that of theGreek, but theGreek deals 20 cent lines. And theGreek's price is +116.

Also, 75-80% (depending on your source) of the bets are on Boston and yet the line has barely moved at all.

I'll post the price I get as soon as I get it.
 

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Ok. Never mind. As the prices changed, so did the biases held by Pinnacle and 5Dimes. There is now no longer any reason to bet on Baltimore
 

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