I hope the 100 or so degenerate gamblers who are reading my threads like the cards I am putting out. The ML is what most people struggle with when betting bases. A general rule of thumb is avoid favorites over -150 and I would say the same for playing dogs of +150. I might still play a big favorite here and there but I never play big dogs. They are big dogs for a reason.
Lines are set based first on starting pitching. Starting pitching is an important factor of course but it is over rated. Even the great starters do not win every game and many times they do not figure into the final result. They may keep there team in the game but bullpens and managerial moves decide many games long after the starters are gone.
Reason this is important to know is that sometimes it is best just to take the team that is playing good baseball and disregard the starting pitching. That should put you on the side of a good dog play from time to time.
Lines are set based first on starting pitching. Starting pitching is an important factor of course but it is over rated. Even the great starters do not win every game and many times they do not figure into the final result. They may keep there team in the game but bullpens and managerial moves decide many games long after the starters are gone.
Reason this is important to know is that sometimes it is best just to take the team that is playing good baseball and disregard the starting pitching. That should put you on the side of a good dog play from time to time.
If anybody is making money playing totals let me know. I am something like
0-9-2 in totals. Totals killed me last year too. Much easier to guess on which team will win the game. Trying to guess the over/under is really a crap shoot. The books scare players away from good plays with the ML and what happens the is the player goes to the total where the ML is cheaper but the play itself is a 50/50 proposition. In other words there is no real edge and in the end the books will beat you.
0-9-2 in totals. Totals killed me last year too. Much easier to guess on which team will win the game. Trying to guess the over/under is really a crap shoot. The books scare players away from good plays with the ML and what happens the is the player goes to the total where the ML is cheaper but the play itself is a 50/50 proposition. In other words there is no real edge and in the end the books will beat you.
