MLB: Sunday April 22nd Plays

Braves @ Mets
Play: Braves +110
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
Although Glavine has been pitching progressively better against the Braves, there still might not be another team I would want going up against him. There are simply too many hitters spread across the lineup that have dominated him over the years to make me feel that his improved pitching performances against the Braves holds a lot of sustainability. The Braves once again proved already once this year that they could do damage against him, and he has not been pitching as well as his ERA would indicate, as he has been able to get out of a lot of fortunate jams. Renteria, Jones, Francour and McCann have all had success against him. Adding Woodward to the lineup will allow another hitting that is hitting southpaws well to be in the lineup. Glavine has been consistently been slightly easier to pick up during day games, has been more prone to walking hitters this year, and continues to struggle against the right handed hitters he faces, which will more than likely be six or seven today. The Braves bullpen no longer holds a decisive edge over the Braves, and their two backend pitchers prior to the 9th have struggled against the Braves in the past.

Smoltz has consistently been able to curtail the talent of the Mets lineup. Last year, he dominated them, finishing with a 2.33 ERA against them in four starts. He has also already put forth a quality start against them this year. Being one of the smartest pitchers in baseball that adjusts as well as any, he seems better off pitching to lineups that he has a deep past history against. He has had past success against a couple key hitters in today’s lineup, while only two of the dominant Mets hitters have shown to have an edge against him. He is finally backed by a solid bullpen. It is also a bullpen that is more than likely going to get Gonzalez back for this game, a much needed left handed arm to go up against a lineup loaded from the left side.

Phillies @ Reds
Play: Phillies +114
Intrinsic Value: -116
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
The Phillies were finally able to do two things yesterday- win and give their bullpen a rest. Today, they will also more than likely get Howard back in the lineup. Although Belisle is off to a solid start, he finally showed he could be vulnerable in the mound, as the Brewers were able to do damage against him. Despite pitching to left handed hitters well this year, he fundamentally doesn’t match up well against them, as he is easy to pick up and lacks overpowering pitches, allowing left handers to easily get around on his pitches. This does not bode well for him going up against one of the more talented lineups from the left side. He also lacks the ideal stamina that is needed to prevent a sub par and struggling Reds bullpen from entering the game early. The Phillies have actually done a decent job getting runners on base, yet have struggled hitting in the clutch, something that is bound to reverse itself. The match up better against right handed pitchers, and have hit better during day games.

Expect Garcia to come out sharper in this game compared to his first start in which he was shaking off the cobwebs. Now that Myers is in the bullpen, Garcia is the best right handed pitcher in the rotation, and seems to be getting progressively more effective against left handed hitters, which is a huge asset when going up against this Reds lineup. He has three plus pitches, which could be a problem for a lineup whose timing is clearly off right now. The Reds have scored two runs or less in three of their last four games, and have not been able to take advantage of the hitter’s park they play in. Garcia has dominated the only hitter he has a deep past history against, as Hattenberg is just 2 for 30 against him. He is backed by a bullpen that got the day off yesterday, and are no longer vulnerable in the backend with Myers and Gordon.

Cardinals @ Cubs
Play: Cubs +124
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
I am a big fan of Wainwright, and feel that he is going to be a premier right hander in the league for many years to come. However, it’s hard to make a case for any pitcher to lay such odds on the road when backed by an offense that is hitting as poorly as the Cardinals have this season. Wainwright did not looks sharp in his last outing, as his curveball did not have the bite it usually has, and he seems to lack the confidence he possessed on the mound late last season. His curveball is also much easier to pick up during day games, and it has reflected in his career totals, as he comes into today’s start with a career 4.47 day game ERA, which is a far cry from his career 2.23 night ERA. He continues to be vulnerable against left handed hitters, which the Cubs have a fair amount of talent. Even if Soriano doesn’t play, I don’t think his absence will prove terribly costly in this game, as he fundamentally doesn’t match up well against Wainwright and could also be replaced with a left handed bat. The Cardinals do not have the same talent in the bullpen compared to last year.

Although Miller has yet looked solid on the mound, there was a big improvement in his second start compared to his first. Although he will probably never be the pitcher he was prior to his injury, he still has the talent to be a decent pitcher that may warrant a play when being backed by solid odds. This may be a spot that he may finally put forth a decent outing, as he has many favorable variables working for him. First of all, he has always been far more effective during day games, and has in fact been one of the most dominant day game pitchers in baseball over the last several years. He comes into today’s game with a career day game ERA of 3.28. His stuff is hard to pick up for right handed hitters, which could be a problem for a lineup that has most of its talent bat from the right side. Going up against a completely dormant lineup will also boost his confidence, especially since he has had past success against them. He is also backed by a deep, talented, well rested, and underrated bullpen that will allow the Cubs to have leverage in pulling the plug on Miller if his start is not going well.

Padres @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -102
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting: -107
Comment:
This appears to be a good spot for the Rockies to avoid being swept at home. Maddux is simply not the same pitcher he once was, and fundamentally doesn’t match up well against the thin air in Coors. It is no surprise the Coors has consistently given him problems, as his soft throws have the propensity to hang in this weather environment. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA approaching six in this ball park. There are a couple young, dangerous hitters that have had past success against him as well. The Rockies lineup is too talented to remain dormant for long periods of time, and taking a position on them when they are out of favor is appealing.

Hirsh is the exact pitcher you want going up against a hot lineup. The reason is that there are not many pitchers like him, as his near seven foot frame and wind up takes time adjusting too, and could break up a lineups rhythm. The Padres clearly showed that they did not pick him up well in his first outing against them, as he allowed just six hit and one run in nearly seven innings of work, and was able to strike out eight. Hirsh has also been much harder for left handed batters to hit, as they have a career .219 average against him, which could be a problem for a lineup loaded from the left side.

Good day yesterday Buffett

another good yesterday . appreciate your efforts. hit a nice parlay yesterday with some of your plays as well as magic and over, rockets and under and nets.

with you on all your plays today except the padres/rockies game. you analysis makes me think twice about that play however. im also on the twins and the astros...no time for detailed analysis today however.

for anyone that plays the nba, i feel the playoffs are much easier to wager because of the effort level of both teams. went 5-0 yesterday.
the warriors line blows my mind. currently down to 9.5. warriors swept the mavs this year and have won 5 in a row against the mavs. they are a matchup nightmare because of their quickness. contrary to belief, dallas is no longer an up tempo team without nash. gs is willing and able to put smaller, quicker players on nowitzki which seems to really bother him. their larger guards also match up well with terry. look for the warriors to win 2 games in this series...maybe more. 10 pts is a gift. probably playing the over in the suns game to. gl to everyone

Thanks for the plays and BOL as always.

Also want to say thanks for the kind words in my thread yesterday. Getting props from a capper I respect like yourself is great, considering that in baseball I have mostly been trying to imitate your style/reasoning. It's worked out well as I've found myself with you on many more plays than not, and of course the wins don't hurt. With you on 3 or 4 today, but against you on the Cards. I just never liked what I saw of him in Boston, even though I had high hopes for him while he was here. Anyway, BOL on the card.

+3.38 Yesterday

+27.56 YTD


This is bordering on ridiculous!!

Unbelievable, but thanks for posting as I am enjoying the reading almost as much as the winning.

i have been following along most of the time, and of course couldnt be more pleased. you have positive picks, and a fine group of positive followers, me included. makes for great reading and needless to say, profitable bets. so thanks for all you are doing.

Thanks BG and OSU

OSUCOWBOYS said:

+3.38 Yesterday

+27.56 YTD


This is bordering on ridiculous!!

Click to expand...

OSU, do you have the W-L record and the Average Lay Price?

jacksonjohn said:

OSU, do you have the W-L record and the Average Lay Price?

Click to expand...

JJ,
He's not keeping track of W-L because it can be very misleading in baseball. Average Lay Price? He's keeping track as one unit per play, although that's not how BuffettGambler wagers on plays.

GL, nice hot streak here Buff. Totally opposite a year ago. Keep it up! When do you think there will be some value in totals? As long as sides work, I guess there's no need for betting on totals.

jacksonjohn said:

OSU, do you have the W-L record and the Average Lay Price?

Click to expand...

Just do a search of Buffetgambler's plays and you can see what his average lay price is. I would guess -105 to -115. I don't have the W-L record either. Again, just research back the past 21 days if you are that interested. ALL plays are posted.